Research On The Integrated Forecasting Model Framework And Multi-objective Hedging Mechanism For Hydropower Photovoltaic Joint Scheduling

Energy crisis and global warming are important issues facing human development,accelerating the development of new energy is an imporant way to solve che issues-Due to the fluctuation and intermittent characteristics of photovoltaic power generation,meanwhile,it is difficult to predict,grid-on will lead to a relatively greater impact on the stability and safety of the power system,resulting in a higher liglit waiver rate and resulting in a lot of energy waste.Hydrupowet is currently the best peak-shaving emergy the power system.The joint scheduling of hydropower-photovoltaic can increase the consumplion of new energy,but there arc currently two main problcms:One is that the prcdiction accuracy on the photovoltaic output and the inbound volume of reservoir is low,and the prediclion method is difficult to connect with the actual scheduling and a suitablc prelicltion mcthod are much nccded;the other is that the hydropower-photovoltaic joint schcduling is a mulli-objective conflict problem which involves the flood control torget of the rcservair,hydropower generation goals and the photovoltaic power generation goals,they are contmidictory to each other,and a reasonable hedging scheme needs to be established to resolve the contradictions Based on this,on the basis of existing research resulls,this thesis lakes reservoir runoff photovoltaic power generation prediction and hydropower-photovoltaic joint scheduling as research objects,and las a research on the key technologies such as the framework with operability of decomposition-incegration prediction model,the integrated application of hydropowcer-photovaltaic to voltaic power prediction,and the multi-objective hedging scheme and scheduling model.The following main work is carried out:(1)Based on comprehensive integration technology,a decomposition-integration prediction framework that could adapt to the prediction model change is proposed.Aiming at the problems of low accuracy and difficult to dynamic integration of traditional prediction models and using comprehensive integration and modern information technology,a comprehensive service platform with agile development and rapid adaptation is constructed,a decomposition-integration prediction modcl framework is proposed,the componcnt library of method and model are established using component technology,and on the basis of the comprchensive scrvicc platform,taking the component of model method,dynamic integration strategy,evaluation feedback con-ection,and subject knowledge graph,etc,as the description of dccompos i t io n-integr at i on prediction business,the rapid consmiction of the decomposition-integration prediction application system is realized.(2)The hydropower and photovoltaic power prediction under the framework of decomposition-integration prediction model is realized.Continuing the traditional prediction models and methods,making the model,method and parameters variable to achieve the dynamic correction prediction model.,the integrated application system of hydropower and photovoltaic power prediction is built on the platform,the prediction strategy containing dccomposition-intcgration,cvaluation feedback and dynamic modification is adoplcd,the application of hydropower and photovoltaic power prediction under the framework of decomposition-integration prediction model is realized.(3)Aiming at the difficulties in the joint scheduling,which is caused by the fluctuation and randomness of hydropower and photovoltaic power,a correlation analysis method for hydropower-photovoltaic joint scheduling proposed.Based on the hydropower and photovoltaic power data,the scheme and form of hydropower and photovoltaic joint operation are analyzed,the parameter estimation method of Copula function is studied,the Copula function selection strategy that could characterizes the hydropower-photovoltaic joint distribution characteristics is formed,the model of correlation index of hydropo we r-ph oto volta ic based on the Copula function is established.the coirelation of hydropower-photovoltaic in the aetLial scenarios is verified,so as to provide the basis for hydropower-photovoltaic joint scheduling.(4)Aiming at the multi-objcctivc conflict in hydropowcr-photovoltaic joini scheduling,a multi-objective hedging scheme for hydropower-photovoltaic joint scheduling is established,this thesis conducts an analysis on the multi-objcctivc conflict in hydropower-photovoltaic joint scheduling,and has a research on the decision-making process of the hydropower-photovoltaic joint scheduling,a two-stage hedging scheme of hydropower-photovoltaic joint scheduling based on the time and spacc scales is established,and hydropower-photovoltaic joint scheduling hedging scheme with a mutual restriction of multiple rules is formed.(5)The hydropower-photovoltaic multi-objective joint scheduling model considering system fluctuations and waiver of light is established,the integrated application under the multi-objective hedging scheme is achieved.The MOEA/D-GABS algorithm with a selection strategy is used to solve the model,with the hedging scheme on the space-time scale is integrated and around the adaptive decision-making,the integrated application that contains multi-objective,hedging scheme,scheduling model and solving method is realized.The application illustrates the value of the scheduling strategy and hedging scheme.