Research On Energy System Reliability Analysis Method Based On Performance Level

Energy is a vital material for the survival and development of human society.The safe and stable operation of the energy system is related to the development of the national economy and social order stability.With the rapid development of energy technology,the system presents phased-mission and multi-state characteristics during operation.Besides,with the development of the new energy,due to the instability of performance supply,it is difficult to balance the supply and demand,which often causes performance deficiency or redundancy.First of all,in order to deal with the energy supply deficiency,the main solution for resisting supply interruptions is to considering that backup.Traditional energy systems mainly focus on hot and cold backup.Hot backup has a fast startup time but high energy consumption,while cold backup has low energy consumption but too long startup time.Warm backup is a redundancy technology between hot backup and cold backup which has low energy consumption and fast startup time and thus is a more ideal choice in actual operation.Furthermore,when performance supply and demand are unbalanced,energy storage technology can achieve load peak-shaving and valley-filling,increase the peak-shaving capacity of the energy system,and improve the safe and stable operation of the energy system.Traditional energy systems mostly focus on the updating of energy storage technology without considering the specific impact on the reliability of the energy system.Consequently,it is necessary to propose a reliability analysis of the energy system based on energy storage technology.Finally,the performance sharing mechanism is a new technology to solve the imbalance between supply and demand in the energy system.Traditional energy systems are mainly applied in simple series systems or series-parallel systems.It is necessary to propose a reliability analysis of the energy system suitable for general topology.This paper's primary goal is to ensure the efficient and stable operation of the energy system and improve the system's reliability.Considering the energy system's performance level as the primary research line,we propose a reliability analysis of the energy system based on the performance level.First and foremost,for performance deficiency,a reliability analysis of the phased-mission energy system based on warm standby is proposed.Moreover,for performance redundancy,a reliability analysis of the phased-mission energy system based on energy storage is proposed.Finally,for the imbalance between performance supply and demand of a specific energy system-power system,we construct a reliability model of a multi-state power system based on performance sharing and the optimal configuration of the generator set.The main research contents are as follows:(1)To analyze the reliability of a phased-mission energy system with performance deficiency based on warm standbyGiven phased-mission characteristics of modern energy systems,when the system output's performance cannot meet the system's demands,we consider warm standby components to improve the system reliability.We propose a multi-valued decision diagram of the phased-mission system fault based on warm standby and the system reliability measurement model.Finally,through different calculation examples,we compare our results with the Monte Carlo simulation.The results verify the accuracy of the proposed method and show that the method can effectively measure energy system reliability of a phased-mission energy system with performance deficiency based on warm standby.(2)To analyze the reliability of a phased-mission energy system with performance redundant based on energy storageIn modern energy systems,the performance supply is unstable due to environmental factors.In addition to the performance deficiency in(1),the energy system may also produce performance redundancy.We offer a multi-valued decision diagram of system fault for the energy system with performance redundant based on energy storage and thus construct the measurement model of system reliability.The energy storage element stores the excess energy to transmit the corresponding energy to the subsequent stage of performance deficiency so that the energy system can operate stably,thereby improving the energy system's reliability.Results show that the proposed method can accurately analyze the energy system's reliability with redundant performance under phased-mission.(3)The reliability model of multi-state power system based on performance sharing is constructed and the optimal configuration of generator set is proposedBased on(1)and(2),for the imbalance between performance supply and demand of a specific energy system-power system,we consider each node's performance level and demand as random variables and propose reliability analysis method of a power system suitable for general topology.We construct a multi-state power system reliability model based on performance sharing.The system achieves the balance of supply and demand through each node's performance transmitted within the entire system network to realize performance sharing.Simultaneously,to further improve the system reliability and ensure the smooth operation of the power system,the generator set in each node area in the system is optimized to minimize the system's performance demands.Finally,the results show that the proposed model can effectively improve the multi-state power system's reliability compared with other calculation examples.