| The proposing of global land project had made a new perspective for land problem research,with the further deepening of global land project,people gradually realized that studying land issues needed to inspect the interaction and contact of the influence factors in land system from the system perspective.Cultivated land resources as the most precious natural resource had been gradually evolved into a highly coupling nature-economy-society-ecology compound system after a long period of human intervention,the cultivated land use system as the subsystem of the land use system was affected by many driving force factors,its internal structure was extremely complex,the relation of system variable factors was difficult to determine,therefore,to identify the main driving factors affecting the safety of cultivated land use system from the perspective of system,explore the safety pattern distribution and spatial evolution with these key factors of the cultivated land use of system,on the basis of these optimized the spatial pattern,and explored the effective regulatory mechanism to sustain the security and stability of cultivated system,can provide theoretical basis and technical support for reasonable using and protecting the scarce cultivated resources,provide the scientific basis for protecting the national food safety,and play a positive role to improve the ecological environment.This paper took the typical area in Songnen high plain black soil area-Bayan county in Heilongjiang province as the study area,based on the widely data collection of natural,economic,social,ecological,agricultural production,land use and the analysis of the test related to soil physical and chemical,firstly used the geographical correlation analysis method,overlay geomorphological map,slope map and administrative zoning map in the study area,in accordance with the principle of "geographic position + topographical features + terrain slope location",divided the cultivated land use in the study area into 5 regions,region ?-plains cultivated land area in northwest,region ?-plains of diffuse hillock gentle slope cultivated land area in central,region?-low mountain slope cultivated land area in east,region ?-plains cultivated land area in south,region V-alluvial plain cultivated land area in south,and from the perspective of quantity,quality,ecology,analyzed the present situation of cultivated land utilization in study area.On this basis.using the Pearson correlation analysis,screening effect factors which effect the cultivated land use system security,by means of ArcGIS,using Logistic regression model,identified the driving factors affecting the safety of cultivated land use system,using ROC method to explain the test ability of driving force factors,the verification results as the main influence driving factors of cultivated land using system security,single factor evaluation method was used to classify the influence degree of the driving factors,using collaborative Kriging method to do the interpolation analysis,and then got the spatial distribution of driving factors,revealed the spatial differentiation law.Using the factor analysis method and weighted comprehensive evaluation method to calculate the safe value which was driven by impact of factor interaction,and divided security levels,took cultivated land use zoning as the basic unit,analyzed the security pattern of cultivated land use system,revealed security pattern evolution law in different cultivated land use zonings.Using Arcgis to overlay cultivated land quality grade diagram,cultivated land use system security diagram,water and soil erosion diagram,soil pollution diagram,using spatial analysis function of raster data,and took the principle which is not to break the administrative boundary,to do the structure optimization,determined banned development zone,limit development zone,adjustment development zone,priority development zone and potential development zone,on the basis of overall planning and macroeconomic regulation from ecology,management,economy,policy,law,formulated pertinence and differentiation cultivated land use regulation project.The research results will be of great significance to promote the sustainable development of regional agriculture,protect cultivated land,ensure food safety and improve the ecological environment.The cultivated land use present situation analysis in study area showed that in 1991-2009,the amount of cultivated land was increased,the addition of the cultivated land mainly from forest land,construction land and unused land,cultivated land transfer mainly turned to construction land,grassland,forest land and water area,the cultivated land quantity relative changes in spatial pattern were largest in east,least in west and medium in central and southern,the largest amount of cultivated land change was in region ?-low mountain slope cultivated land area in east,the smallest was in region ?-plains cultivated land area in northwest;the quality characteristics of cultivated land resource on the whole was that the third and fourth grade in highest proportion,and then the fifth grade,and the first and second grade in lowest,in 1991-2009,the spacial distribution of cultivated land quality had significant changes in study area,level increased areas concentrated in Hongguang of plains cultivated land area in northwest and Huashan of plains of diffuse hillock gentle slope cultivated land area in central,level reduced areas concentrated in Longmiao town and Tianzeng town of plains of diffuse hillock gentle slope cultivated land area in central,level invariant areas concentrated in Bayan town of plains cultivated land area in south and Dexiang of plains of diffuse hillock gentle slope cultivated land area in central;Serious soil and water loss in study area happened in low mountain slope cultivated land area in east and plains of diffuse hillock gentle slope cultivated land area in central,Shanhouxiang,Tianzeng town,Heishan town,Waxing town,Longquan town,the soil heavy metal pollution degree was low,only in Hongguangxiang,Xinglong town and Bayan town had little heavy metal pollution.Using Pearson correlation analysis from the natural,economic,social and ecological subsystem selected 18 main factors affecting the cultivated land use system security,by Logistic regression model to identify nine major driving force factors,elevation,landform type,soil type,soil texture,available phosphorus,population density,policies and regulations,the ratio vegetation index,water loss and soil erosion,the landform type,soil type,soil texture,available phosphorus,policies and regulations had a promoting role on cultivated land use system security,elevation,the ratio vegetation index,population density,water loss and soil erosion had inhibitory effect on cultivated land use system security.The intensity of driving factors to cultivated land use system security in the order were soil type>landform type>soil texture>water loss and soil erosion>policies and regulations>the ratio vegetation index>available phosphorus>population density>elevation.The influence degree of driving factors for the cultivated land use system security had obvious geographical space distribution characteristics respectively,and broke the original cultivated use zoning,presented a spatial distribution properties based on the geographic space.Among them,the spatial distribution of soil types influence for cultivated land use system security performance gradually weakened from the southwest to the northeast;landform types from north to south gradually weakened;the soil texture was high in central,low in north and south;water loss and soil erosion was high in central and northeast,low in northwest and southern;policies and regulations influence was bigger for crop yield large regional in northwest and southeast;the ratio vegetation index were different for each degree of influence,presented a scattered irregular on the space characteristics;available phosphorus was low in central high in north and south;the population density only had a great influence on Bayan town and Xinglong town less affected Heishan town,the influence for the rest regional were similar;elevation presented gradually weakened from the northeast to the west and south.The main driving factors of each cultivated land use zonings,plains cultivated land area in northwest was landform type,plains of diffuse hillock gentle slope cultivated land area in central was soil type,low mountain slope cultivated land area in east was water loss and soil erosion,plains cultivated land area in south was available phosphorus,alluvial plain cultivated land area in south was landform type.By dividing cultivated land use system security value into five levels:level ?(safest),level ?(safer),level ?(basic safe),level ?(critical safety)and level ?(unsafety),analysed the security pattern change and spatial evolution of cultivated land use system security in study area from 1991 to 2009 showed that in 1991 and 2009,the proportion of each security levels in the study area was given priority to level ?,level ?,level ?,and for level ? it was low.From 1991 to 2009,the changing trend of level ? and level ? were decreased,level ?,level ? and level V were increased,the safety degree of cultivated land use system was reducing;for the spatial distribution,the security level of cultivated land use system were both showed imbalance in 1991 and 2009,the northwest was high,the southeast was low,and this trend was higher in 2009 than in 1991.The spatial distribution pattern in each security level showed significantly different in different cultivated land zonings,security level ?,? concentrated in region ?,? and ?,level ? and ? were mainly distributed in region ? and region ?,level I as the highest safety rating were mostly in region ?;The security pattern spatial evolution characteristics were obvious during the past 20 years(1991-2009),level ? was focused on the performance of transfer to region ?,the changes of level ? was more dispersed,the distribution ratio was decreased in region ? and ?,and increased in the other three regions,level ? was transferred from region? to region ?,level ?was spread around the original region,level ? was transferred from the region V to region IV.Structure optimization for cultivated land use in study area was made and control measures were put forward.Using the spatial analysis function of raster data,and with the principle of not breaking the administrative boundary,the cultivated land use in study area was divided into priority development zone,potential development zone,adjustment development zone,restricted development zone and prohibited development zone,and put forward differentiation control measures according to different regional areas. |
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