Evaluation Of Cultivated Land Ecological Security Based On Improved Grey Target Model And Study Of Its Influence Factors

Cultivated land is the essence of land resources.The Safety of cultivated land is related to national food security and social stability.Besides,the ecological security of cultivated land is an important prerequisite for ensuring the security of cultivated land.Therefore,evaluating the ecological security of cultivated land as a whole,ascertaining the characteristics of the dynamic changes in chronological order and the spatial pattern of the ecological security of cultivated land,and discussing the demands of the main interest groups that affect the ecological security of cultivated land,have an important guiding role in protecting cultivated land and optimizing cultivated land management.Taking the main area of Huaihe River Basin as an example,the paper selects the socio-economic data of the three stages including 2006,2010 and 2014.It analyzes the ecological security level of cultivated land and the characteristics of the space-time pattern in the main area of Huaihe River Basin by using the methods like analytic hierarchy process,entropy method,improved gray target model,descriptive method for statistical analysis and spatial autocorrelation model.Based on that,a questionnaire survey from peasants' perspectives was conducted.Then,the author conducted the cooperative game analysis on the main interest groups by the game theory,and put forward some policy recommendations.The conclusions are followed.(1)This study used the improved grey target model to construct an evaluation index system from three perspectives of cultivated land pressure,cultivated land status,and cultivated land response,and conducted a comprehensive evaluation of cultivated land ecological security in the main area of the Huaihe River Basin.The improved grey target model reflects the interrelationships among the various elements of cultivated land ecological security from different levels,making the evaluation results more vivid,real and reliable.(2)During the period of the study,the ecological security of cultivated land in the main area of the Huaihe River Basin is increasing year by year,and the safety status is gradually improving on the whole.However,the research area the regional differences show an expanding tendency.There are many reasons for the differences.The ecological pressure of cultivated land in the main part of the Huaihe River Basin shows the trend of “increasing first and then decreasing”;the ecological status of the cultivated land presents the trend of “reducing first and then increasing”,with relatively little change;the ecological response of cultivated land is dominated by the third grade first and then transits to the fourth grade,showing a “steady and increasing”trend.(3)During the study period,the level of ecological security of cultivated land has experienced the changing process: very unsafe,critical safe,safer,and safe.From the perspective of space,the safety of cultivated land in most of the studied area is mainly based on the critical safety.In the more secure areas,the situation of "jumping and spreading,increasing in number and gathering in space" is the trend;in the safe areas,there is nothing and only Zhengzhou City meets the requirements.The spatial pattern of the level of ecological security of cultivated land in the main body of the Huaihe River Basin is obviously different,with obvious "polarization" characteristics among all regions.(4)According to the global spatial auto-correlation analysis of ecological security of cultivated land.The global Moran'sl index of ecological security of cultivated land shows significant positive spatial auto-correlation at 0.5% significance level,and the adjacent urban areas have obvious clustering in space.For the areas with high level of ecological security of cultivated land,the level of ecological security of the adjacent areas is also high;otherwise,it is low.It is indicated that improving the ecological security of cultivated land in a certain area is conducive to promoting the simultaneous improvement of the ecological security of cultivated land in the surrounding areas;Monran's I index scatter plot and LISA aggregation map show that the spatial agglomeration effect of the ecological security of cultivated land in the main area of the Huaihe River Basin increases during the study period,but the overall spatialvariability remains stable.(5)A survey questionnaire based on farmers' perspectives was carried out.Through the analysis of the results after statistical compilation,the farmers were given some awareness and attitude towards the current ecological security of cultivated land.And the central government,local governments,farmers and consumers are the main stakeholders for the ecological security of cultivated land.There are differences in interest demands among the main interest groups,resulting in the contradictions,conflicts and imbalances among the stakeholders.By analyzing the interest structure of stakeholders,some targeted measures are proposed,which has provided new policy ideas for the protection of ecological security of cultivated land.