Effect Prediction Of Climate Change On Potential Habitats Of The Cold Temperate Coniferous Forest In Yunnan Province

Recently,global climate change becomes increasingly prominent,and has already begun to affect natural biological systems.Assessing potential effects of climate change on ecosystems has been an important issue for the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme(IGBP).Combined with the global climate change scenarios,establishing potential distribution models to simulate and predict changes of plants or vegetation types under climate change is particularly important to achieve this objective.Based on the actual distribution,applying classification and regression tree model,and using seven climate change scenarios,this study predicted potential habitats of cold temperate coniferous forests(CTCFs)in Yunnan province under the current and future climates,and explored its changes of latitude and elevation under the climate change.The main results are as follows:(1)Among the six climate variables,the min temperature of coldest month(TMW)was the overwhelmingly potent factor to control the potential distributions of CTCFs in Yunnan province.TMW<-4.05? controlled suitable habitats of CTCFs,and TMW>-1.35 ? controlled its non-habitats.(2)The geographical locations of suitable habitats were roughly consistent with current distribution of CTCFs in Yunnan province.Marginal habitats were distributed in the surrounding areas of suitable habitats,extensively and dispersedly.(3)There were no significant differences in the habitat types of CTCFs in Yunnan province between seven climate change scenarios.The Cccma_cgcm31 scenario and the Ipsl_cm4 scenario indicated the widest and the narrowest potential habitats,respectively.(4)Whichever climate change scenario occurs,potential habitats of CTCFs in Yunnan province will suffer from attenuation in different extent.(5)The fragile regions of Wumeng Mountainous areas in northeastern Yunnan were significantly greater than those of Hengduan Mountainous areas in northwestern Yunnan.Cccma_cgcm31 scenario indicated the minimum fragile regions,and Mpi_echam5 scenario indicated the largest fragile regions.(6)Seen from the sensitive index,climate change in the study period(2070-2099)will not lead to a significant change in potential distribution of CTCFs in Yunnan province.The mildest probability change in potential distribution occurred at Csiro_mk30 scenario,and the most remarkable change occurred at Ukmo_hadgem1 scenario.(7)Suitable habitats and marginal habitats under seven climate change scenarios will migrate toward higher latitude and elevation compared to the distributions under current climate.Specific to each climate scenario,the changing characteristics of latitude showed that marginal habitats were significantly greater than suitable habitats,but the elevation changes showed a contrary tendency.Results of this study will prepare basic data for responding mechanism of CTCFs to climate change.and provide theoretical reference for protection and restoration to CTCFs in Yunnan province from the perspective of climatology and ecology.