Potential Distribution Of The Forests In Northern China And Their Variation Trend Under Future Climate Scenario

There is abundant forest resource in northern China, where some major ecological construction projects, such as Natural Forest Resource Conservation Project, "Three North" Shelter Forest Program and Soil and Water Conservation in the Loess Plateau, have been implemented. Being the majority of the natural ecosystem in Northern China, forest plays an key role as ecological barrier. Now, forest distribution pattern has altered with global climate change. This study discussed the potential distribution of the forests in northern China and their variation trend under the future climate scenario, and provided measures to achieve harmonious development between human and nature.Based on GIS and Logistic regression model, the study assessed the potential distribution of the forests in northern China and their variation trend under the future climate scenario. The main works conducted are as follows:Climate databases of northern China were created with different spatial resolutions, based on ArcGIS spatial analyst. These include current (1971-2000) climatic scenario and future (2071-2100) climatic scenario.1. Based on these created environmental variables, the study applied GIS-based Logistic regression model to simulate the potential distribution of four kinds of forest in northern China (needleleaf forest, mixed leaf forest, deciduous broadleaf forest, evergreen needleleaf forest) under current climatic scenario (1971-2000). The sensitivity of the species changed from 81% to 92%, the specificity changed from 82% to 92% and the percentage of correctness changed from 82% to 92%.2. By using climate variables under future climatic scenario (2071-2100) as inputs to the regression model, the variation trends in four kinds of forests in northern China (needleleaf forest, mixed leaf forest, deciduous broadleaf forest, evergreen needleleaf forest) caused by climate change have been identified.The results obtained in this research are:1. The area of potential distribution of deciduous broadleaf forest decreased by 86.7%, shifting eastward from west of Daxinganling Mountain, Qinling Mountain, North China Plain and Northeast China Plain to east of Changbai Mountain and Xiaoxinganling Mountain, middle and west of Qinling Mountain. Major sensitive areas of deciduous broadleaf forest under the future climate scenario (2071-2100) were located in Hulunbuir Forest-steppe area and Loess Plateau, with changes of 17% and 11.6%, respectively.2. The area of potential distribution of evergreen needleleaf forest increased by 15.2%, expanding eastward from west and north of China to Yanshan Mountain, Inshan Mountain, Xiaoxinganling Mountain, and westward to Altun Mountain, Altai Mountain, Kunlun Mountain, Tianshan Mountain. Major sensitive area of evergreen needleleaf forest under the future climate scenario (2071-2100) was located in Loess Plateau, with changes of 20.6%. The area of potential distribution of evergreen needleleaf forest increased in west and east of mountains.3. The area of potential distribution of deciduous needleleaf forest decreased by 71.7%, shifting northward from north of Heilongjiang and Inner Mongolia provinces to north of Daxinganling Mountain and Xiaoxinganling Mountain. Major sensitive area of deciduous needleleaf under the future climate scenario (2071-2100) was located in Hulunbuir Forest-steppe area, with changes of 29.5%.4. The area of potential distribution of mixed leaf forest decreased by 32.1%, shifting eastward from Qilian Mountain, west of Northeast China Plain, north of Inner Mongolia to north of Daxinganling Mountain and Xiaoxinganling Mountain. Major sensitive area of mixed leaf forest under the future climate scenario (2071-2100) was located in Hulunbuir Forest-steppe area, with changes of 45.4%.In summary, the total area of potential distribution of the forests in north China was reduced under future climate scenario.