Research On Media Coverage,Consumer Attention And Price Fluctuation Of Broiler Market Under The Risk Of Avain Flu

In the Internet era information spreads faster than ever before,and the coverage of unexpected events by various news media have greatly expanded their influence.In the process of information transmission,media coverage of negative events draws more attention than that of positive events,leading to further amplification of the effects of negative events.In recent years,the avian flu epidemic has occurred occasionally in parts of China.Meanwhile the prices in the broiler market in various provinces across the country have fluctuated significantly along with the outbreak of epidemics,which indicates that media coverage of epidemics has played an important role in the formation of broiler prices.This research analyzes the effect of epidemic media coverage on the price in broiler market from the perspective of media coverage,and reveals the mechanism of this media coverage on broiler price,which has practical implication on the emergency management of avian flu epidemic and the mitigation of price fluctuations in broiler market.On the basis of the existing literatures,this paper constructs a theoretical analysis framework about the effect of media coverage of avian flu epidemic on the market price of broilers by combining various theories of media agenda setting,consumer attention allocation,and information search.Then the paper summarizes the characteristics of the outbreaks of avian flu in China,and explains the social amplification effects of avian flu epidemic.The Markov chain vector error correction model is then used to examine the operating characteristics and conversion characteristics of broiler chicken market prices in the low volatility zone system and the high volatility zone system.Correlation coefficient analysis is followed to use to analyze the correlation between the high volatility of the market price of broiler chickens and the media coverage of epidemic outbreaks.On the basis of previous analysis,The Granger causality test is employed to explore the dynamic relationship among media reports,consumer attention and broiler market prices.The time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model(TVP-VAR)is further used to reveal the role of media coverage on broiler market prices mechanism.Finally,non-linear models are applied to examine the non-linear effects of media coverage and consumer attention on broiler market prices.Through the above theoretical analysis and empirical research,the conclusions are as followed.(1)The market price of broilers in China has a distinct systemic conversion characteristics,and it shows a long-term,stable and short-term volatility with an asymmetry transmission of the broiler market price.And the media coverage of avian flu epidemic raises the probability of broiler market prices operating under the high volatility zone system.(2)The media coverage of avian flu epidemic has a significant guiding effect on consumer attention.With every one more media report on avian flu epidemic,consumer's attention will grow by 5.144% to 7.9026%.The media coverage not only in the short run poses a direct negative guiding effect on the market price of broilers,but also in the long run has a negative impact on the market price of broilers through the channels of consumer concern,with a relatively smooth conduction channel.(3)The media reports have a threshold effect on the impact of market price fluctuations in broilers with a FSII index constructed by the media coverage of 3.2941.Under the low volatility zone system,the more intense the media coverage is,the faster the prices fall and rebound afterwards of live chicken and dressed chicken.While under the high volatility zone system,the increase in the report has a sustained negative effect.In the short term this negative effect is doubling on the price of live chicken and chicken.However,over time,the impact will converge to low intensity.The reduction in media coverage under both volatility zone system has a sustained positive effect on both live chicken price and dressed chicken price.The more reduction in media coverage,the faster the prices recover.(4)Customer attention on epidemics has a nonlinear suppressing effect on the market price of broiler chickens.The price-suppressing effect increases steadily with the increase in the consumer attention.The speed of the price conversion increases from broiler chicken to live chicken and to dressed chicken.Considering regional differences,Jiangsu,Zhejiang,and Guangdong,these three provinces witness the highest price-suppression effect,while Qinghai,Ningxia,and Hainan,these three have a lower effect.The possible innovations of this paper are the following three.(1)Based on the perspective of media coverage,by introducing consumer attention into the epidemic information transmission process,the mechanism of avian flu epidemic information on broiler market price is deeply analyzed.(2)The lagged effect of news information is incorporated into the analysis model,the Food Threats Information Index(FSII)is constructed by using media coverage of avian flu epidemics,and the threshold vector autoregressive model(TVAR)is used to analyze the asymmetric shock effect of avian flu epidemic information on the market price of broiler chicken in China.(3)By using the smooth panel transformation model,the paper found that consumer attention has a non-linear impact on the price of live chicken and chicken with a smooth transformation feature,while a nonlinear impact on the price of broiler chicken with a mutation feature.