A Study On Low Birth Rate In Japan

At the end of the 19th century,most European countries have completed the process of population transformation,but the change of human fertility level has not stopped at the replacement level.Since the 20 th century,the change of human fertility level has became increasingly complex and diverse,and at the same time,there has been the problem of mainly characterized by extremely low fertility.With the extensive decline of fertility level,the focus of demography has shifted from controlling population growth to maintaining a moderate population scale,coping with aging,and restoring fertility level.The global trend of low fertility is the macro background of this study,while the specific background of this study is that Japan is facing the problem of low birth rate at present and in the future.Japan is one of the lowest-fertility-level countries in the world.Japan has been in the stage of low birth rate for nearly half a century since 1974,when its total fertility rate has fallen below the replacement level.At present,it is in the dilemma of super low birth rate.Japan's population and society have been greatly affected by the long-term low birth rate.The proportion of children and juveniles in Japan is declining,and the aging is accelerating.At the same time,Japan is also facing problems such as the decrease of working-age population,the increase of labor burden,the reduction of market scale,and the continuous downturn of economic growth.The impact on Japan has affected the government,enterprises,individuals and other aspects.After a long-term birth control policy,China's population structure has become increasingly prominent,with the problems of "aging before getting rich" and "low birth rating before getting rich".The purpose of this study is to make a comprehensive analysis of Japan's low birth rate,summarize Japan's experience and lessons in response to the process of low birth rate,explore the possibility of Japan's future fertility recovery,and put forward suggestions for Japan's optimization of low-birth-rate countermeasures;at the same time,reveal the feasibility of China's learning from Japan's experience and the necessity of learning from Japan's lessons,and provide policy building for China to deal with the problem of low birth rate.This study is divided into three parts,eight chapters in total.The core content of this study is the problem of Japan's low birth rate,including the process,current situation,future trend,causes,impact,countermeasures and optimization path of Japan's low-birth-rate countermeasures,and the ultimate purpose is to provide experience for China's response to the problem of low birth rate.Part ?: Introduction(Chapter 1,Chapter 2)The first chapter discusses the research background,research purpose and significance,research review domestically and abroad,research ideas and framework,research methods and technical routes,and points out the innovations and insufficiencies of this study.The second chapter introduces the basic concepts and main theories.It defines the basic concepts such as low birth rate and low-birth-rate countermeasures,the related concepts of childbearing,the related concepts of marriage and so on.And it focuses on the connotation of fertility analysis theory,population transformation theory,intermediary variable theory,modern growth theory and "low fertility trap" theory and their application in this study.Part ?: Core content(Chapter 3,Chapter 4,Chapter 5,Chapter 6)The third chapter based on the long-term demographic data of Japan since the end of the Second World War,combined with the concept and the criteria for determining the degree of low birth rate,analyzes the process and current situation of Japan's low birth rate from three indicators: crude birth rate,total fertility rate and the population coefficient of children and juveniles,and looks forward to the future trend of Japan's low birth rate.The fourth chapter analyzes the complex causes of Japan's low birth rate from three aspects of demography,economy and social culture.At the demography level,Japan's marital fertility rate and marriage ratio alternately dominate the decline of fertility level;at the economic level,the causes mainly include the cost of parenting far exceeds the utility,the lack of economic income security for young people,and the contradiction between work and life;at the social and cultural level,the causes mainly include the weakening of traditional family functions,the fact that childbearing outside marriage does not violate social acceptance and support,the opinion about value of avoiding risks and the value of child rearing of "over responsibility" for children,ect.The fifth chapter is the influence of low birth rate on Japan.Using the historical growth calculation model,analyzes the impact of the low birth rate on Japan's economy,which is manifested in lowering the growth rate of real GDP and restraining the potential economic output.The impact on the population is directly reflected in the negative growth of the population and the change of the age structure of the population;the impact on the social culture is mainly manifested as the change of the local social form,the influence on the ideological situation and the mass culture,the obstruction of the traditional cultural inheritance,the change of the educational structure,etc.The sixth chapter is an analysis of Japan's low-birth-rate countermeasures.The evolution process of Japan's low-birth-rate countermeasures can be divided into three stages: plan preparation,all-round development and adjustment deepening;its system can be summarized into four levels and three main lines;from the perspective of policy tools,it has a greater impact on creating a good marriage and childbearing environment,a smaller role in increasing willingness to marriage and childbearing and reducing the obstacles to marriage and childbearing,and the contents of the countermeasures are excessively concentrated on the support to childcare,there is a serious lack of support for marriage.The third part: experiences and policy suggestions(Chapter 7,Chapter 8).The seventh chapter analyzes the current situation and future trend of China's low birth rate at first,and compares it with Japan,then summarizes the similarities and differences between these two countries,and finally expounds the feasibility of China's learning from Japan's experience and the necessity of drawing from Japan's lessons.The eighth chapter is the discussion of conclusion and policy suggestions.First of all,the main conclusions of this study are summarized.It is considered that Japan's low birth rate is time-honored and deep,the causes are complexed and the impacts are far-reaching.The low-birth-rate countermeasures are worthy of affirmation,but the effect is limited.Then the suggestions on the path optimization of Japan's low-birth-rate countermeasures and China's response to problem of low birth rate are puted out.Japan should increase its financial investment,adjust the proportion of its low-birth-rate countermeasures,increase its publicity and the force of low-birth-rate countermeasures;China should respond immediately,promote the development of comprehensive two-child policy through the formulation of overall supporting measures,and achieve a smooth transition of family planning policies.There are maily three innovations in this study:Firstly,the innovation of research field of vision.At present,most of the domestic research results on the problem of Japan's low birth rate are focused on a certain element,or the impact of low birth rate on a certain aspect of the problem.The content is complex and lack of systematicness.In this study,the origin,development and consequences of Japan's child reduction were analyzed in a panoramic way when it lasted for half a century and its countermeasures were implemented for 30 years.From the perspective of demography,combined with the theories and methods of economics,sociology and administration,studies the problems and countermeasures of Japan's low birth rate,which is comprehensive and systematic.Secondly,the innovation in research methods.This study improved the historical growth calculation model,separated the impact of low birth rate on economy from the age structure of population and analyzed it separately;put the analysis methods of policy tools into the research paradigm of low-birth-rate countermeasures,built a two-dimensional analysis framework of policy tools and the whole process of fertility,and made a quantitative analysis of Japan's low-birth-rate countermeasures.Thirdly,the innovation of the framework.In this study,the whole process of Japan's low birth rate is analyzed,and the causes and effects of Japan's low birth rate are discussed from three aspects of demography,economy and social culture.At the same time,the study makes a comprehensive analysis of Japan's low-bieth-rate countermeasures,and sums up its system into four levels: top-level design,policy framework,comprehensive response,specific implementation and three main lines: economic assistance,support for childbearing and parenting,and reform of working methods;the development process of Japan's low-birth-rate countermeasures is divided into three stages: plan preparation,comprehensive development,and adjustment deepening.To sum up,this study has formed a more systematic and detailed analysis framework,which has some reference significance for the development of the subsequent research paradigm of low birth rate problem.