A Study On Grain Imports From The Perspective Of Economic Growth

Grain import trade is a politically sensitive issue,and its development is affected by many factors,among which the level of economic development is a core factor.Economic development not only changes the quantity and structure of grain demand,but also changes the capacity of grain poroduction,thus the impact of economic growth on grain import trade will be complex.It is of great significance to reveal the rule of economic development on grain import trade,which can help make correct grain trade policies.China is deepening its effort to participate in global food security governance in recent years.The implementation of overseas agricultural resources development and foreign food aid are the reflections of this effort,which are also important institutional factors affecting grain trade.This paper reveals the determinants of grain imports,explores the evolution path of China's grain imports based on international experience,clarifies the causes and measures to stablize world grian market,and finally discusses the relationship between overseas agricultural resource development and international food aid and grains trade and raises the optimizing countermeasures.The paper mainly includes following six parts:(1)Analyze the determinants of grain imports based on large transnational historical data.Grain import dependency varies along a inverted N-shaped curve with economic growth,countries which have more arable lands go across the inflection point of the inverted N-shaped curve earlier.To control population growth and increase stock levels can also reduce the import dependency.(2)Reveal the evolution path of China's grain import based on international experience.The level of economic development is the most important factor for China's grain import.China has entered the upswing interval of the inverted N-shaped curve,and its grain import will continue to climb as economy grows for some time to come.However,grain demand trends to saturation in the long term and rising production can be achieved through technological progress.Sustainable economic growth finally leads to the decreasing grain import.(3)Clarity the influence factors and countermeasures of the stability of world grain market.Oil price fluctuation has a negative influence on grain price stability,and inventory level has positive influence.As one of important ways for the transmission of oil price to grain price,it is necessary to establish the multilateral constraint mechanism for the development of bioenergy.Increasing inventory levels can help reduce grain price volatility,so the international community should work together to build a regional and global reserve system.(4)Measure the expenditure and price elasticity of China's grain import demand.Based on the results of SDAIDS model,major importing countries benefit differently from the expansion of China's grain import.Wheat and rice import market share present an increasing concentration trend.(5)It is an effective way for stabilizing China'grain import to implement the overseas agricultural resources development.Carry out assistance and build corresponding supervision mechanism can accelerate the development process.Overseas agricultural resources development can not only enhance the grain self-sufficiency of host country and improve the world supply situation,but also increase the autonomy and stability of grain import of home country.Assistance to host country can help lay a good foundation of public opinion,and reasonable supervision mechanism can help solve interest issuses of host country and avoid conflicts.(6)Food aid has the risk of disrupting grain trade order,and building effective need assessment and supervision mechanism can avoid such risks of Chinese aid.Food aid which is not targeted to hungry countries and people will distort trade and production.Though WTO discipline on food aid is non-binding,China should establish need assessment and supervision mechanism under the WTO framework.It not only minimize negative impacts on trade,but also ensure that China's surplus resources play a real role in reducing global hunger and malnutrition.