Study On Asymmetry:Dynamic Adjustment Of Capital Structure Of Listed Companies In China

The capital structure is an important issue that affects the company's core decision-making.It will directly affect the choice of the company's financing methods and the proportion of different financing methods,and further affect the company's management and operating efficiency.Therefore,the research on capital structure is highly concerned by academics and practitioners.Starting from the MM theorem of Modigliani and Miller(1958),the capital structure theory has experienced several decades of turbulent development and has derived a number of theoretical branches such as trade-off theory,principal-agent theory,pecking order theory and market timing theory.Domestic and foreign scholars have explored many theoretical and practical issues such as the selection,changing rules,and influencing factors of the company's capital structure from different perspectives.Among them,the dynamic trade-off theory has been recognized and supported by many scholars in recent years,and has gradually become the mainstream logical framework for the research of capital structure.In the empirical research literature under the existing theoretical framework,scholars have conducted extensive and in-depth studies on the dynamic adjustment of the company's capital structure with different variables.In these studies,the authors generally adopted the standard model of partial adjustment of capital structure,and based on their respective research objects,developed models pertinently to study the impact of single or multiple variables on the dynamic adjustment of capital structure.Although scholars have mentioned that the characteristics of dynamic adjustment of capital structure under the influence of exogenous variables are asymmetric,there are relatively few research literatures on the asymmetric adjustment of endogenous characteristics of company's capital structure,and less attention is paid to the dynamic adjustment characteristics of capital structure and the research on the applicability of dynamic trade-off theory in Chinese market.Therefore,this article focuses on the logical framework of the dynamic trade-off theory,systematically studies the asymmetric characteristics of the dynamic adjustment of the capital structure of Chinese listed companies,and attempts to test the applicability of the dynamic trade-off theory in the Chinese market.On the basis of sorting out the relevant literature and starting with the assumptions of the trade-off theory,this paper first empirically tests the rationality of the dynamic trade-off theory hypothesis by using a local linear panel data model,and describes the movement path of the capital structure of Chinese listed companies over time from the first quarter of 2002 to the third quarter of 2017 through econometric methods.We find that due to the impact of listing information,the company's capital structure shows an inverted U-shaped curve trend that rises first and then falls within a certain period after listing.In addition,in the sample group with a longer time to market,the capital structure showed an N-shaped curve trend of increasing at first,then decreasing and then rising again,and the fluctuation showed a convergence trend.This article conjectures that management's listed emotion is an important reason for the regular fluctuations in the capital structure after a company's listing,and that by observing the adjustment path of the capital structure,it can be assumed that the premise of the dynamic trade-off theory is reasonable in the Chinese market.Subsequently,this paper uses the partial adjustment model of capital structure to test the asymmetry of the dynamic adjustment speed of the capital structure of Chinese listed companies,and finds that there are differences in the speed of capital structure adjustment in different leverage deviations and different financing gaps.The results show that when the actual leverage of the company is higher than the target leverage,the adjustment speed of its capital structure is faster;when the company is under financing,the adjustment speed of its capital structure is faster;and both of the company's leverage deviation situation and financing gap problem will affects the adjustment speed of the company's capital structure,and this effect is asymmetric.When an over-financed company has actual leverage higher than the target leverage,its adjustment speed of capital structure is faster,and when the actual leverage is lower than the target leverage,the adjustment speed of capital structure is the slowest.In order to further test the robustness of the dynamic adjustment of the asymmetric characteristics of the capital structure of Chinese listed companies,this paper further introduced risk factors to re-examine the above conclusions.The empirical results show that the above empirical conclusions are still valid after the introduction of risk variables,and that the risk indicators also have asymmetric impact on the speed of capital structure adjustment.Specifically,in the regression that only considers the direction of the company's capital structure adjustment,when the company's actual leverage is higher than the target leverage,higher corporate risks will promote the decline of the company's debt ratio,and when the actual leverage is lower than the target leverage,the high corporate risks will hinder the rise of the company's debt ratio;macroeconomic risks will only promote the increase in the debt ratio when the company's capital structure is adjusted upwards.In the regression that only considers the corporate financing gap,micro-risk will significantly promote the adjustment speed of capital structure when the company is over-financed,and it will hinder the adjustment of capital structure when the financing is insufficient;macro-risk does not have a robust effect on the adjustment of capital structure.In the regression of considering both capital structure adjustment direction and financing gap at the same time,no matter whether the company is over-financing or under-financing,micro-risk factors will hinder the downward adjustment of capital structure.In the case of different financing gaps,the speed of capital structure adjustment has significant differences,and when the company is in an over-financing situation,micro-risk factors have a more significant hindrance to the downward adjustment of capital structure.Micro-risk factors only promote the upward adjustment speed of capital structure when the company's financing is excessive;and the impact of macro-economic risk factors on the dynamic adjustment of capital structure is not robust.Finally,based on the financial data of Chinese listed companies from 2009 to 2016,this paper uses a dynamic panel threshold model to fully consider the variables that may affect the adjustment of capital structure,and uses it as a threshold variable to differentiate the samples.This paper compares and analyzes whether the adjustment speed of the capital structure of companies with different characteristics differs,and further perfects the basic research on the dynamic adjustment speed of capital structure.Systematic sorting out and examining the asymmetric characteristics of the dynamic adjustment of the listed company's capital structure will help promote the perfection and development of the dynamic trade-off theory system,and provide methodological reference and data reference for the current empirical research at domestic and abroad.At the same time,understanding and mastering the regular pattern of the company's capital structure dynamic adjustment speed will help the company managers to scientifically grasp the speed and direction of capital structure adjustment,improve the efficiency and level of company operations and management,and at the same time promote the rational investment of investors.Promote the stable and healthy development of China's securities market.