| Since the people's Bank of China has independently exercised its central bank function in 1984,China has been adopting the combination of quantitative regulation and price regulation,with quantitative regulation as the major monetary policy regulation framework.With China's macro-economy entering a new era,the relationship between the level of money supply and the macro economy has undergone new changes.At the same time,with the development of domestic financial market,the relationship between monetary policy based on interest rate control and financial market and real economy is becoming more and more closely related.The questions of time-varying characteristics of the quantitative monetary policy framework and whether the monetary policy should be inclined to the regulation of the price type has gradually become the focus of the government,scholars and the public.To solve these questions,from the point of view of the monetary transaction equation MV=PY,this paper makes a systematic study on the regulation mechanism and regulation effect of the quantitative monetary policy in China from three aspects of the level of effective money supply,the structure of the broad money supply and the trend of the speed of currency circulation in our country.Then,we focus on the comparison of the quantitative monetary policy and the price type monetary policy.From the perspective of macro and time-varying,we compare the trend characteristics and actual control effects of China's quantitative monetary policy and price monetary policy on macroeconomic regulation and control,and point out advantages and disadvantages of the two type of monetary policies in the different macroeconomic regulation and control level,and then effectively supplement and improve the future monetary policy selection framework of our country.This paper is divided into 7 chapters.Chapter one is an introduction of full text.In chapter one,we sort out the connotation,regulation and control measures of quantitative monetary policy and price based monetary policy,as well as its regulation and control effects on macro-economy.On this basis,we summarize the relevant concepts of the choice of monetary policy intermediary and the historical experience of other countries.In particular,this chapter makes a detailed summary and review on the selection and transformation process of China's monetary policy intermediary goals,and the different scholars' research on the selection of intermediary targets in China's monetary policy.Then we point out the key problems and research objectives of this study,and pave the way for the empirical research of the later literature.From the beginning of chapter two to chapter four,it is the part of the research on the effectiveness of the quantitative monetary policy.Chapter two is mainly about effective supply of money and the gap of money supply in China.The results show that there is a long-term stable monetary demand function in China,and the level of money supply and the actual monetary gap are obviously periodicity.However,under the two conditions of broad money supply surplus and insufficient supply,China's monetary policy has obvious asymmetric characteristics in macroeconomic regulation and control.In chapter three,based on the relationship between the broad money supply structure and economic growth in China,according to the statistical formula provided by the people's Bank of China on the supply of M2,the digital characteristics of the broad money supply structure at different economic stages in China are statistically analyzed from the point of view of the decomposition of the money supply level.Subsequently,we use TVP-VAR model to study the dynamic regulation mechanism of China's credit level and foreign exchange reserve level on economic growth from the perspective of broad money supply structure adjustment.In view of the decline in output effect of China's current quantitative monetary policy and the obvious phenomenon of monetary neutralization,we give explanations for the structure of money supply.In chapter four we summarizes the international experience of the velocity of money and the speed of money circulation,and makes a brief calculation of the velocity of money circulation in China in order to make a corresponding analysis of its trend and the reasons for its trend.V0 which is the circulation speed of M0 shows a certain degree of "U" trend,and the circulation level of M1 and M2 has a more obvious downward trend.The decline of this circulation speed makes the regulation effect of quantitative monetary policy decrease correspondingly,and the expansion of money supply to the macro-economy is limited.However,the steady decline in the trend of money circulation also makes the central bank have the ability to anticipate the change of M2 circulation speed reasonably,and then we can make relatively accurate calculation of the actual demand function of money in China.The regulation of money supply is still the most direct and effective means of regulation and control in the process of monetary policy regulation in China.From chapter five to chapter seven is the comparative study of the quantitative monetary policy and the price based monetary policy.In chapter five,we use TVP-FAVAR method to establish China's macroeconomic factor model.We estimate and analyze the impact of quantitative monetary policy and price based monetary policy on macroeconomic regulation in the process of economic structure change.The conclusions are as follows: in the implementation process of central bank's monetary policy,quantitative monetary policy has stronger regulation effect and longer regulation period.In contrast,the regulation effect of interest rate control is weaker,and the short-term effect is more obvious.As far as the output effect is concerned,both the regulation of money supply and interest rate after the subprime mortgage crisis have shown a more obvious decline.After the subprime mortgage crisis,the control effect of M2 regulation on output tends to be stable,while the relationship between interest rate and output is increasing.In addition,the control effect of the two on the level of inflation is very significant,and the control of the amount of money and the adjustment of interest rates are effective means to stabilize prices.In chapter six,from the angle of interest rate regulation and control to the control of heterogeneous inflation,we set up an inflation model containing the Taylor rule under the new Keynes framework,and analyze the difference in the impact of interest rates on different levels of inflation from two perspectives of consumers and producers.Then we use TVP-VAR model to analyze the time-varying characteristics and dynamic differences between price based monetary policy in CPI and PPI regulation from different economic stages.We also have further explained the reasons for the deviation between CPI and PPI in China since 2010.The chapter seven,from the point of view of the choice of the central bank's regular monetary policy,we build a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model under the open economic environment,and we have compared the effect of monetary policy on macroeconomic regulation under the implementation of quantitative rule,interest rate rule and "mixed rule" model,as well as the reflection of macroeconomic response to exogenous shocks under different monetary policy rules.In terms of quantitative monetary policy,it has the advantages of easy quantitative regulation and trend control,and has the characteristics of long regulation cycle and weak ability to deal with exogenous shocks.The interest rate policy has strong short-term effect in reflecting the speed of macroeconomic control,reflecting the magnitude and controlling volatility.It can satisfy the central bank's continuous demand and the regulation mode of preset fine adjustment.Finally,because of the regulation of monetary policy and the interest rate level in the implementation process of "mixed rule" policy,it also has the characteristics of quantitative regulation and price regulation.The complementarity between the two levels can avoid the defects in the process of single policy regulation,but it is not outstanding in terms of the effect of regulation. |
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