| In recent years,monetary policy rules are important fields of macroeconomic research..The monetary policy rules mean that the central bank decides monetary policy regulation system based on the basic money or the benchmark interest rate of financial market in the economic system.In the rule-based regulation mechanism of monetary policy,in order to achieve the steady development by affecting the scale of credit financing and investment,the monetary policies uses policy interest rate such as excess reserve interest rate,re-loan interest rate and re-discount rate to guide the direction of the nominal interest rate’s changing under the condition of unconstrained quantity,based on the changes in the inflation gap(difference of actual inflation and inflation goal)and the output gap(difference of actual output and potential output)and other extended indicators.In contrast,the choice of the discretionary monetary policy is a based on the changes in the economic form.In the context of this policy framework,the progressive optimization theory can not guide the public to form a stable rational expectation,so the credibility of monetary policy is questioned and the adjustment of the nominal interest rate and the basic currency by central bank is not systematic,then the monetary authorities can not effectively achieve their regulatory objectives.However,some scholars have analyzed the dynamic inconsistency of economic policy and find that monetary policy rules could help economic subject makes a reasonable interpretation of the central bank’s regulation and control policy,it could stabilize the medium-and long-term expectations of the market and effectively enhance the transparency of monetary policy formulation and implementation.After the outbreak of the international financial crisis,various countries carried on the exploration to the monetary policy regulation framework.In order to establish a forward-looking monetary policy commitment mechanism,further increase transparency in monetary policy and stabilize market expectations,monetary policy rules have become the focus of macroeconomic regulation and control once again.In recent years,China has gradually entered the "new normal" stage,the macroeconomic operation situation in China has undergone a great change,theemergence of problems such as slowing down steadily of economic growth,narrowing of the price growth,volatility of exchange rate and asset prices have prompted the review of the relationship between macroeconomic variables based on monetary policy rules.Therefore,based on the view of the macroeconomic phenomena and problems that have appeared in recent years,corresponding chapters in this paper will put forward the research aim and research method,we will expand the form of monetary policy rules and select appropriate empirical methods to complete the empirical measurement test of the theoretical model on the basis of finding corresponding macroeconomic theories as support.The main conclusions obtained in this paper are as follows:In the first chapter of this paper,we first expounds the main problems and characteristics of macroeconomic operation in recent years,especially after the outbreak of the financial crisis,then a brief introduction to the research significance of the rule type monetary policy in the "new normal" period is given on the basis of the problem-oriented idea.After sorting out the development of the basic form of quantity and monetary policy price rules,the first chapter gives the corresponding theory of expanded monetary policy rules.Based on different research themes,the research literature of domestic and foreign scholars in the field of policy rules are summarized.Finally,the structure and research contents of this paper are given in the form of charts.From the chapter two,we will start the empirical research part.We will explain the chapters of this article through the transition from empirical logic to empirical content.This paper first considers the fitting state of the policy rule model to the data under unconstrained conditions.A major goal of monetary policy regulation in China is to stabilize price level through quantity and price based monetary policy regulation tools.Therefore,the most important index in monetary policy response function is inflation.However,according to past research literature,when dealing with inflation indicators based on raw data,whether CPI or core inflation index is used to measure price fluctuation,central bank’s feedback mechanism and regulation effect are not satisfactory.Therefore,in the chapter two,we use CPI and PPI as proxy variables of inflation respectively in quantity and price policy rule functions.We also use TVP-VAR model to study the dynamic regulation path of monetary policy in China.The results showed that: compared to the quantity rule,the interest rate rule can match the monetary policy feedback mechanism better in China compared with the quantity rule.At the point of deviation between CPI and PPI,the volatility ofPPI has not caused the full reaction of the monetary authorities,and the monetary policy has paid more attention to the trend of the change in CPI.As fact of the continuous tightening of PPI in recent years,the central bank should pay full attention to the trend of PPI.In view of the policy objectives set by the Central Bank of China,both the price and the quantity monetary policy rules concern about volatility of the price and output.Therefore,in chapter three,the author will continue to reexamine the applicability of quantity and monetary policy price rules which in the classical form under the framework of DSGE model with different sectors of the economy.The results of comparative analysis show that the price monetary policy,which mainly control interest rate,has more significant effect on macroeconomic variables and the duration of the deviation is shorter after the macroeconomic variables are regulated.When the economy is subjected to exogenous shocks,the regulation based on the price regulation can effectively smooth the economic fluctuation in the short term.Therefore,China should give full play to the guiding role of the benchmark interest rate and improve the interest rate regulation system of the central bank to support the sustained and healthy development of economy.The main purpose of the chapter two and the chapter three is to verify the feedback and regulation mechanism between policy variables and target variables in classical monetary policy rules,by contrasting and analyzing which kind of form rules are more applicable,readers can form a visual perception and judgment.Based on the conclusion of chapter two and three,the price rule will be expanded according to the different backgrounds and research directions in the subsequent analysis of this paper.In chapter four,we first expatiate on the related theories and research progress of monetary policy and exchange rate.By using the ARDL boundary test,rolling correlation and the state space model,the monetary policy price rule which introduce exchange rate factors is analyzed to explore the changes in the regulation mechanism of the central bank.We find that after 2008,the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on the price policy variables has increased,when the policy operation of stabilizing exchange rate fluctuations conflicts with the policy operation of stabilizing price level or stimulating economic growth,the central bank puts the focus of policy regulation on the latter.In addition,the relationship between exchange rate and monetary policy gradually weakened after 2017,indicating that China is gradually weakening the degree of intervention to the foreign exchange market.Since this century,the stock market and the real estate market of our country have enteredthe stage of rapid development.The price fluctuating in a large scale that makes central bank pay more attention to restraining asset bubbles and preventing financial and financial risks.Therefore,in the chapter five of this paper,we construct a LT-TVP-VAR model to test the monetary policy rules which introduce capital price based on the related theories.We find that,after the introduction of stock prices in policy rules,the empirical model used in this chapter is better to capture the change of the impact mechanism between the price policy variable and the stock price.However,the method of time-varying impulse response analysis does not effectively explore the change of the correlation mechanism between policy variables and real estate prices.An important basic factor of bond is the interest rate,and bond is the major regulatory tool for China’s fiscal policy.In order to further explore the influence factors of monetary policy and finish the main purpose of this study which is to expand the analysis of the rules of monetary policy,chapter six of this paper uses DSGE model analysis method.By setting up the rules of monetary policy introducing the variable of fiscal policy and comparing it with the traditional form,we find that when the monetary policy rules consider the financial policy factors,the fluctuation of the fiscal policy factors increases the effect of the policy on the target variables in the economic system.The combination of the two policies will be more obvious in the recession stage,but the increase in the duration of the effect on target variables will undoubtedly increase the uncertainty of policy in the actual operation process.In view of the current situation of our country’s economic development,our country should further strengthen the independence of monetary policy. |
