Research On The Coordination And Collocation Of Monetary Policy Of Mixed Rules And Macro-prudential Policy

The financial crisis triggered by the subprime mortgage risk in the United States in 2008 caused serious losses or even bankruptcies in financial institutions,This impact quickly affected the global economic downturn in countries around the world.The outbreak of the financial crisis has made the previously neglected financial stability pay attention.People realize that finance is not an independent entity.There is a close relationship between financial institutions.Once one of the financial institutions has problems,it will continue to be through the relationship of financial institutions then zoom in and cause serious consequences.Therefore,in contrast to the micro-prudential supervision before the crisis,which only focused on the stability of individual financial institutions,economists proposed the concept of macro-prudential supervision to maintain the stability of the entire financial system.On the other hand,after the crisis broke out,it was stated that a single monetary policy could not guarantee financial stability while maintaining economic stability.In order to ensure the sound operation of the economy,monetary policy is usually used in conjunction with macroprudential policies.Monetary policy mainly guarantees economic stability and macro-prudence.The policy mainly maintains financial stability,making the economy stable while taking into account financial stability.In recent years,the domestic real estate industry has prospered,and the rapid growth of house prices has led to the accumulation of credit in the real estate industry.The risks are also increasing.People are worried that if house prices have been growing with the current trend,they will repeat the mistakes of the 2008 financial crisis.Excessive credit growth will continue to accumulate systemic risks that ultimately threaten financial stability.Since the coordination of monetary policy and macroprudential policy for economic and financial stability has been a hot topic in recent years,the inclusion of the real estate sector in the DSGE model in combination with domestic conditions is a trend in the current study of monetary policy and macroprudential policy.The monetary policy rules are derived from the monetary policy operation “camera selection and monetary policy rules”.Since the introduction of Lucas critique and dynamic inconsistency theory in the 1970 s and 1980 s,monetary policy rules have gradually occupied the dominant position of monetary policy operations,and Mainly divided into interest rate type,quantity type and two types of mixed type.At the same time,there are two difficulties in determining the monetary policy rules used by the model when studying the coordination between monetary policy and macro-prudential policy.First,compared with the developed countries in the West,our country is in the transition period of interest rate marketization reform which makes the central bank have more room for the choice of monetary policy rules.In fact,according to the monetary policy operation of the central bank in recent years,the central bank has not chosen a single quantitative,interest-rate or hybrid monetary policy,but the three rules are interleaved.And second,many scholars in our country have no unified view on the choice of monetary policy rules in DSGE model.Whether it is quantitative,price or mixed,they hold different opinions.The choice of monetary policy rules has undoubtedly become a hindrance to the study of the coordination and coordination of monetary policy and macroprudential policy.Therefore,determining a monetary policy rule is of great significance for studying the coordination effect of monetary policy and macroprudential policy.Under this background,this paper implants house price into a DSGE model which includes family,manufacturer and central bank.Firstly,three different forms of monetary policy rules are innovatively set up: interest rate type,quantitative type and mixed type.After calibration and Bayesian estimation of parameters,the degree of economic fit and welfare of the three kinds of monetary policy rules are compared respectively,so as to determine the most realistic monetary policy rules,rather than directly determine the form of monetary policy rules in the model.On this basis,we introduce macro-prudential policies,and analyze the impulse response and variance decomposition of output,inflation,house prices and credit,and calculate the size of welfare losses,so as to analyze the effect of coordination between monetary policy and macro-prudential policy.The results show:(1)Compared with traditional interest rate rules or quantitative rules,mixed monetary policy rules with inclusive and parallel selectivity can better fit the actual operation of the Chinese economy,and also bring greater social welfare benefits.(2)The monetary policy is mainly responsible for regulating the macro economy and the macro prudential policy is mainly responsible for maintaining financial stability.The combination of the two can make up for the lack of a single monetary policy in maintaining financial stability,thus making the two goals work together.(3)The combination of monetary policy and macroprudential policy can not only reduce economic fluctuations,but also promote the better realization of both goals.At the same time,there are contradictions and conflicts.Therefore,when the two are coordinated and coordinated,comprehensive judgments should be made on the causes,nature and extent of conflicts,so that they can be corrected in time.