| Since the financial crisis in 2008,China's economic development has entered a new stage,and many new social and economic phenomena have emerged.The typical facts of the Chinese economy and society in the new stage are:1.Stable macro tax burden.The stable macro-tax burden is a typical feature of the modern financial system and the economic basis of macro-control.From 2009 to 2016,China's macro taxation rates were 17.1%,17.7%,18.3%,18.6%,18.6%,18.5%,18.2%,and 17.6%,respectively,and remained stable at around 18%.2.Continue to invest heavily in infrastructure.From 2009 to 2016,infrastructure investment accounted for 17.7%,17.7%,14.2%,14.9%,16.3%,18.1%,20.0%,and 21.4%of GDP in that year.Infrastructure investment should not be too low,otherwise it will inhibit economic growth;at the same time it should not be too high,otherwise it will excessively increase the deprec:iation cost of the entire economy,resulting in a waste of economic resources.3,fertility decline.According to the previous census and spot check data of the National Bureau of Statistics,the total fertility rate from 2006 to 2015 were 1.385,1.453,1.478,1.374,1.187,1.04,1.256,1.235,1.278,and 1.047,respectively.The one-child policy has been terminated and the "separate two-child" policy has been upgraded to a "two-child" policy.4.Economic growth has entered the new normal.The economic growth slowed down.The economic growth rates in 2008-2017 were 9.0%,8.7%,10.3%,9.2%,7.8%,7.7%,7.4%,6.9%,6.7%,and 6.9%,respectively.On the whole,the economic growth rate shows a trend of decline and stabilization.After 2015,the growth rate is continuously below 7%.The government is trying to find new growth momentum.5.The level of income inequality remains high.According to the National Bureau of Statistics,in the past decade or so,the Gini coefficient of per capita disposable income in China from 2003 to 2016 was:0.479,0.473,0.485,0.487,0.484,and 0.491,respectively.0.490,0.481,0.477,0.474,0.473,0.469,0.462 and 0.465.Under these socio-economic characteristics,are the traditional theoretical and policy tools still valid?If not,where is the problem?These problems need to be resolved through in-depth study.This study explores the issues of public policy formulation and economic transformation in the new era from the four perspectives of growth incentive effects of fiscal policy,income redistribution effects of fiscal transfer payments,how financial transparency affects PPP investment,and how factor flows affect urban economic transformation.The new situation in economic development objectively requires policy makers to formulate corresponding macro policies to respond to the times.This article examines the problems in the process of economic transformation and development in the new era from the following aspects,which are in turn:(1)The growth incentive effect of fiscal policy.In view of the stable macro-tax burden and sustained high-value basic social and economic characteristics,this paper analyzes the impact of infrastructure and tax burden on economic growth by constructing an intergenerational overlap model,and solves the fiscal policy equilibrium solution.After theoretical analysis,when infrastructure has hindered economic growth,in order to promote balanced growth,the proportion of expenditure on infrastructure construction should be reduced;when tax burdens are too heavy to impede economic growth,tax burden should be reduced in order to promote balanced growth..The empirical analysis based on provincial panel data robustly supports the conclusion of the theoretical model.This article believes that in the context of the potential slowdown in economic growth,it is more necessary for both to be flexible and prudent in their grasp.Both macro tax burdens and infrastructure can be considered for fine-tuning and structural optimization.As far as fiscal policy's growth-incentive effect is concerned,two important tools-tax burden and infrastructure construction-have remained unchanged for years.They are:stable macro-tax burdens and continuous substantial infrastructure spending.Since entering the new normal,innovating fiscal expenditure methods and optimizing the structure of fiscal expenditures have become important measures for supply-side reform.The emphasis on infrastructure construction and the reduction of corporate tax burden have also become two important means of proactive fiscal policy.According to the historical experience of Western developed countries,reducing the tax burden of enterprises and strengthening infrastructure construction are often the main countermeasures as the economic growth rate slows down.China also seems to be gradually entering this stage.Economic growth has changed from high-speed growth to medium-and high-speed growth.The overall change trend of fiscal expenditures and macro-tax burdens is also consistent with that of the West:Representative people's livelihood expenditures such as health expenditure and housing guarantee in 2014 Expenditure and social security expenditures were 1,017.841 billion yuan,504.372 billion yuan,and 159.968 billion yuan,up by 22.91%,12.57%,and 10.20%year-on-year respectively.In 2014,corporate income tax revenue was 2,464.219 billion yuan,a year-on-year increase of 9.88%,a year-on-year decrease of 4.23%.Percentage.Infrastructure construction and corporate tax burdens are related to the long-term stable growth of the economy and the selection of active fiscal policy tools in the context of the new normal.This has become a major practical issue facing the deepening of economic restructuring at the current stage.(2)Income redistribution effect of fiscal transfer payments.In view of the continuing high Gini coefficient in China,this paper analyzes the panel data of 31 provinces,cities and autonomous regions in China from 1999 to 2014 from the perspective of income gap between urban and rural areas,and carefully examines the revenue from fiscal transfer payments.The distribution effect shows that,at the national level,fiscal transfer expenditures have played a role in narrowing the per capita income ratio between urban and rural areas.At the same time,fiscal transfer expenditures can increase the income of urban and rural residents and have a stronger effect on rural residents' income.At the regional level,fiscal transfer expenditure in the eastern region has little effect on the urban-rural income gap,or only a slight increase;the fiscal transfer expenditure in the central region has a smaller role in expanding the income gap between urban and rural residents;in the western region Fiscal transfer expenditures have a certain role in reducing the urban-rural income gap.As far as the income distribution effect of fiscal transfer payments is concerned,since the new period,China's economy has developed rapidly,but at the same time,new social problems and contradictions have gradually emerged.The most prominent one is the income gap problem.Although the income level of residents has improved significantly,due to the different income growth rates,the income gap has continued to widen,and the gap between rich and poor in different regions,industries,and between urban and rural areas has become more and more serious.According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics,since 2003,China's Gini coefficient has been above the international warning line of 0.4,and even reached 0.491 in 2008.Although it has declined in recent years,it has remained above 0.46.In the 1980s,China's Gini coefficient only remained between 0.21 and 0.27.The fairness of income distribution is an important manifestation of social equity and is also an important condition for the stable operation of the economy.If the income gap is too large,it will stimulate various social conflicts and cause social turmoil,as well as the economic and social development of our country.Therefore,in order to promote social equity and eliminate potential hidden dangers,China has adopted a series of income distribution and reform measures in recent years to narrow the income gap,including adjusting the minimum wage standard and raising the income level of low-income people.Continuing to establish and improve pensions,medical care and unemployment Social security systems,including work-related injuries,and continuously expanding the breadth and depth of social security coverage;improving the fiscal and taxation system,matching income and taxation levels,and giving full play to the regulatory function of taxation;Remuneration behavior.In addition to introducing relevant policies and controlling excessive income gaps in the form of laws and regulations,our government has also established a fiscal transfer payment system to directly adjust the irrational distribution of primary income,promote the coordinated development of regional economies,and alleviate the income gap.However,despite the continuous increase in transfer payments in recent years,the income gap has not significantly improved,but it has still been expanding.Therefore,more and more people are beginning to re-examine the transfer payment system:China's financial transfer payments will adjust income.Is there any role in allocating and reducing the income gap?If so,how effective are the adjustments?(3)Analysis of incentive effect of fiscal transparency on PPP.How various social and economic variables affect PPP project investment is a key theoretical issue that urgently needs to be solved in the current fiscal system reform and public goods supply mechanism innovation and a major realistic problem that plagues policy formulation.Existing research shows that it includes fiscal transparency,economic development level,various social and economic variables,including fiscal revenue,have important influence on PPP project investment.Based on the existing research,this paper proposes seven theoretical hypotheses about PPP project investment,using micro-investment data of 10413 PPP projects manually collected from the Ministry of Finance Government and Social Capital Cooperation Center website,matching 216 prefecture-level cities 2015 to 2016.The annual data on socio-economic variables at the prefecture-level and city level,as well as financial transparency data at the prefecture-level level,tested the hypothesis proposed in this paper.The study found that:(1)Consistent with existing research,all socio-economic variables of this paper(Regional GDP,regional population,regional foreign direct investment,industrial structure,and social consumption levels all significantly promoted regional PPP investment;(2)fiscal transparency promoted PPP investment through government economic resources(regional fiscal revenue)With the two channels of social and economic resources(regional residents' deposits)playing a role,the performance of fiscal transparency and the interaction between regional fiscal revenue and regional residents' deposits are both significantly positive.In addition,this paper also finds that fiscal transparency does not affect regional PPP investment through other socio-economic variables(regional GDP,regional population,regional foreign direct investment,industrial structure,and social consumption level).It shows that fiscal transparency and the interaction items of these socio-economic variables are not significant,and after adding interaction items,the coefficient of financial transparency itself is no longer significant.(4)Analysis of the economic transformation effect of factor mobility.As an important strategic support base for energy resources in China,resource-based cities are an important support for the sustained and healthy development of the national economy.Promoting the sustainable development of resource-based cities is not only an indispensable requirement for accelerating the transformation of economic development methods,but also an important task in maintaining social harmony and stability and building an ecological civilization.Promoting the rational flow of production factors is an important way to increase the sustainable development of resource-based cities.It can not only support resource-based cities in accelerating their integration into the process of regional economic integration,but also speed up the resource-based cities to actively undertake industrial transfer and achieve the goal of economic transformation and upgrading.Based on the above background,the concern of this paper is:Does the flow of factors(human capital flows and physical capital flows)in resource-based cities really improve the economic performance of resource-based cities?If so,how is it improved?If not,where is the problem?This is an important issue that needs to be faced directly in the process of economic transformation of resource-based cities and has important practical significance.Therefore,from the perspective of flow of elements,based on the panel data of resource-based cities from 2003 to 2011,we use satellite lighting data to examine the effects of the flow of human capital and material capital on the economic development performance of resource-based cities.This paper finds that there is a paradox in the flow of essential factors in resource-based cities.Empirical analysis shows that,on average,resource-based cities are more active in population flows and their economic performance is relatively lower;the more active the flow of goods,the higher their economic performance.The influencing mechanism behind this is that resource-based cities with more active population flows have their own unbalanced industrial structure and hinder their economic development.The more active the flow of goods is,the more fluent the accumulation and exchange of physical capital in economic development will promote the development of the city.Based on the research in this paper,we finally put forward proposals for increasing the cultivation and support of emerging industries in resource-based cities,supporting education and training for resource-exhausted cities,and optimizing policy support for resource-based cities. |
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