The Study On Evaluation Model And Prevention Of Financial Leasing Credit Risk

In recent years,financial leasing industry in China has developed rapidly in terms of the size of assets,the number of institutions,the distribution of industries and the geographical scope,which has increased significantly.However,what does not match the rapid growth of leasing industry is lack of credit risk management methods by lessors in China.On the one hand,it is due to the constraints of the objective environment,such as the imperfect market environment and the immature social credit system.On the other hand,it is due to lack of study on evaluation of financial leasing credit risk in China,especially lack of quantitative study of credit risk evaluation model based on the characteristics of financial leasing transaction and its market in China.Based on the principle of financial leasing and its credit risk,combined with the characteristics of leasing market in China,this paper studies the evaluation model of credit risk of financial leasing.Then,on the basis of the application of the proposed model,this paper proposes some advice for preventing financial leasing credit risk.First of all,this paper analyzes the risk control mode and the methods of credit risk evaluation of leasing companies in China from the perspective of practice.Generally,leasing companies in China have established the credit risk evaluation system based on the risk control committee,which is still the expert scoring model.Although the index selection and information collection have been expanded,the scoring process and its results are still dependent on the expert's experience.The existed model of credit risk evaluation is a static model and its main concern is lessee'default,which ignores the impact of the quality of the leasehold on financial leasing credit risk.What's more,the existed model can not track the dynamic changes of the credit risk during the leasing period.In addition,the existed credit risk evaluation system and its models also restrict the competitiveness of financial leasing in our financial market,which is also one of the main reasons for the low level of our leasing industry in China.Different from the traditional financing,which takes currency as the carrier,financial leasing takes tangible tools and equipment as the carrier,that is,the leased assets.Leased assets are not only the producing tools of the lessee,but also the sourceof rent reimbursement.At the same time,the leased assets also provide a grasping hand for the lessor to manage financial leasing credit risk.Consequently,this paper integrates the producing and operating information of leased assets and the recovery rate of leased assets into the model of credit risk evaluation,which can measures financial leasing credit risk dynamically.In order to introduce the influence of the lessee's creditworthiness on financial leasing credit risk,this paper uses the analytic hierarchy process(AHP)as the basis of the modelling of lessee's credit risk evaluation.AHP,as the method of a complex problem analysis,avoids the problem of consistency and objectivity in the expert evaluation model by strict quantitative calculation in the weight assignment.At the same time,AHP can also be used to evaluate the capacity of the lessee's equipment maintenance,which is one of the most important factors that affect the recovery rate of the leased assets.On this basis,this paper proposes a dynamic evaluation model of financial leasing credit risk based on AHP and expected loss,which can not only be used in the decision-making of leasing projects,but also can reflect the dynamic change of financial leasing credit risk.The proposed model can assess the credit risk of a leasing project in T=0 and T>0,which can satisfy the lessor's requirements of credit risk evaluation and management in full cycle.Finally,this paper applies the proposed model to the specific financial leasing project and puts forward some suggestions on the risk prevention of financial leasing in China according to the simulation results of our proposed model.Financial leasing companies should pay more attention to the second-hand market of the leased assets,strengthen the management and controlling of the leased asset,optimize the margin mechanism,optimize the decision of project's investing,improve the information level of the project and implement the full cycle credit risk management mechanism.For the external environment,we should cultivate the second-hand markets for equipment,establish and improve the social credit system,strengthen industry data collecting,establish and improve the registration system of the common movable property and promote the progress and application of the equipment management and control technology.Generally speaking,the innovative research results in this paper include the following aspects:(1)This paper proposes a dynamic evaluation model of lessee's default rate based on asset operation information.The model embodies the role and value ofinformation technology in credit risk management and aims to encourage lessors to pay more attention to the operating status of leased assets and reflect the core competitiveness of financial leasing products.(2)EVT is introduced into the judgment of the lessee's solvency,which is an innovative application of EVT in the field of financial leasing.In this study,the lessee's debt is regarded as a product which will be tested for reliability.The payment pressure of the lessee is regarded as the degree of wear and tear of the product.The increase of payment pressure is corresponding to the aggravation of the wear degree of the product.When the degree exceeds the certain limit,the product is invalid,that is,the lessee is defaulted because of the shortage of solvency.(3)A dynamic evaluation model of financial leasing credit risk based on asset operation and expected loss is proposed.Based on the theory of the components of credit risk,through the measurement of risk exposure,probability of default and the recovery rate of Non-performing leased,the dynamic measurement of financial leasing credit risk is realized by calculating the expected loss of assets.(4)A dynamic evaluation model of financial leasing credit risk based on AHP and expected loss is proposed.The model is the improvement of the credit risk evaluation model and the expected loss evaluation model of the lessee.The proposed model realizes the integration of the lessee's credit risk and the leased asset risk.The model can also be applied to the credit risk evaluation before and after leasing,which can help the lessor to implement the full-cycle credit risk management strategy.