Research On Dynamic Modeling Of Effect,Behavior And Controllability Of Information Propagation

Information propagation is an indispensable part of human social life.Although the characteristics and forms of communication are different in different historical periods,the dissemination of information plays an important role in the development of science and technology and people's daily activities.With the emergence of new media,the medium of communication,the meaning of information and the mode of transmission of information have undergone qualitative changes.These changes make the study of information propagation not only limited to qualitative analysis and case studies,but also the appropriate use of other disciplines of research methods and technical means,such as management,social psychology,physics and computer science.In order to investigate all kinds of problems emerged in the new media environment,this thesis proposes information propagation models using the theories of different disciplines.These theories contain individual behavior theory and group behavior theory in social science,complex network theory in networks science,and population dynamics theory and nonlinear system theory in natural science.Based on information propagation models,we study the regularity of information propagation and explore theoretical basis behind the various propagation phenomena.This thesis focuses on the main line of “measuring communication effects-analyzing the influencing factors of communication-controllability of communication”.First,this thesis quantifies the communication effects of a piece of information.The quantitative indicators include diffusion scale,diffusion time and propagation influence.Second,this thesis studies the influence of human factors for the dissemination of information.Specifically,this thesis uses two chapters to separately discuss the role of individual behavior and group behavior in the process of information communication.Finally,controllability and control strategies of information propagation are analyzed and discussed.In terms of research methods,this thesis proposes various information propagation models by abstracting and simulating the process of information transmission in the network media.On this basis,this thesis combines model analysis,numerical simulation and empirical research,to think about communication phenomena and problems from the perspective of communication process.This is a new attempt to quantify the problems of information propagation.The research results of this thesis are as follows.(1)This thesis can be used to predict the propagation scale and diffusion time of a piece of information,and to achieve a quantitative calculation for the influence of information propagation.(2)Through the research of individual behavior,it is found that the prediction and control of information propagation law can be realized effectively by using social infection to guide individual behavior.(3)Through the study of group behavior,it is found that the existence of group power increases the probability that a message is transmitted.And for the competitive communication of two pieces of information,even if there are other factors,such as negative bias,group behavior is still the key force to decide the result of the competition.(4)The analysis of communication control shows that the propagation and diffusion of a piece of information is controllable under certain threshold conditions.And the theoretical study demonstrates that the most effective control method is to improve the ability of people to identify a message content,to conduct timely and reasonable guidance,so that the susceptible individuals involved in the transmission of information can be “immune” to the information.The theoretical significance of this study is to develop and improve the existing research methods of information propagation,make full use of the theory and tools of cross disciplines,and provide some new research direction s and meaningful research results for the study of information propagation under the new media environment.As far as practical application is concerned,the research in this thesis can be widely used in the fields of business marketing,public event management and emergency management.In these applications,whatever managers intend to promote the spread of a piece of information or control the diffusion of a piece of information,this study can provide some useful insights.