| Since the reform and opening up in China,with the continuous development of China's economy,the regional agglomeration characteristics of grain production are become apparent.The wheat,as one of the three main crops of China,its geographical location has also undergone significant changes:gradually changed from dispersed to relatively concentrated,which plays an increasingly significant role in wheat stable supply.The wheat geographical agglomeration has its own internal development rules and also influenced by external factors.So what are the inner rules during the wheat geographical agglomeration evolution and what are the key factors leads to this phenomenon?Since it has been proved that geographical agglomeration can promote economic growth by academic world,whether the wheat geographical agglomeration has promoted the wheat production growth or not?The policy implications of studying these issues are:If it can promote wheat production growth,it should be maintain or promote the wheat geographical agglomeration.On the contrary,it should be timely adjustment stabilize production.For all the above reasons,this dissertation use the provincial panel data from macro level and household survey data from micro level,and conduct empirical research on the above issues by use a large number of econometric methods.Firstly,this dissertation reviewed the evolution process of China's wheat production location variation since the reform and opening-up,analyzed and summarized the characteristics and of China's wheat geographical agglomeration existing issues through a series of index calculation.Secondly,based on agglomeration cause related theory,use LSDVC estimation method and spatial durbin model demonstrate the factors of wheat geographical agglomeration in China,furthermore,based on the household behavior theory,combined field research,use quantile estimation analyses the reasons of farmers' wheat scale changing,to deepen the formation mechanism of wheat geographical agglomeration.At last,according to agglomeration effect theory and neoclassical economic growth theory,use the LMDI model analyses the growth effect of wheat geographical agglomeration to the wheat production,and use the double threshold model analyses the growth effect of wheat geographical agglomeration to the wheat producitivity,also discussed the Williamson Hypothesis.The conclusions are as follows:Firstly,there are significant spatial and temporal differences in the wheat production location evolution in China:the wheat production location variation tends to be concentrated from dispersion.The wheat's own area gravity center moves to the southwest,and the yield center moves to the southeast.There are great difference in displacement direction and velocity between gravity center and yield.The comparative advantage of wheat efficiency decrease,the comparative advantage of scale and comprehensive comparative advantage increase.The differences of wheat production location and population distribution were enlarged.Most of wheat productions are concentrated in economically underdeveloped areas.Secondly,the phenomenon of wheat production regional agglomeration in China is remarkable,and "high-high,low-low"polarizing agglomeration has emerged.Specifically,"low-low" agglomeration has increased and "high-high" agglomeration is relatively stable.Thirdly,the regional agglomeration formation of wheat production in China is affected by many factors.The comparative advantage enhancement and the transportation condition improvement can significantly promote the wheat geographical agglomeration in China.In addition,the resource endowment conditions such as air temperature,precipitation and main production areas advantages,urbanization rate,technological and other economic development levels all have great impact on the wheat production geographical concentration,and also have significant spatial spillover effect.Fourthly,the wheat production location change is essentially the result of farmer's production behavior.The reasons for wheat geographical agglomeration shows that the comparative advantage enhancement and the transport conditions improvement promote the wheat planting area growth in Hebei,Shandong and Henan provinces,and the impact on farmers who have different production scales was different.The sales convenience improvement only has significant effect on small-scale farmers,while the comparative advantage enhancement and participation active in cooperatives have significant effect on all scale farmers.Fifth,the geographical agglomeration of wheat production contributed significantly to the growth of wheat production and presented a steady upward trend.Different regions have different growth effects.Sixth,the wheat production regional agglomeration in China has significant agglomeration effect.The wheat production agglomeration can significantly promote the wheat total factor productivity growth,but its growth effect has the threshold feature which there is the "Williamson" hypothesis:when the wheat total factor productivity does not reach the threshold value(0.848),the wheat production agglomeration can promote the industrial economic growth and produce agglomeration effect.When the wheat total factor productivity exceeds the threshold value(0.848),it hinders industrial economic growth and produces crowding effect,especially when the wheat total factor productivity exceeds 1.108,the wheat geographical agglomeration will have greater crowding effect on industrial economy.Based on the above conclusions,this dissertation proposes the following suggestions:Firstly,the optimization and adjustment of wheat production location should focus on the policies implementation based on different scales to farmers to fully stimulate the initiative in production.Small-scale farmers need should pay attention to improve the sales convenience.Large-scale farmers should guarantee the wheat production stability by encouraging them to join cooperatives.Secondly,the optimization and adjustment of the wheat production location should pay attention to regional policy,adjust wheat production rationally,improve supply flexibility and promote the wheat industry economic growth.In view of Jiangsu,Yunnan and Xinjiang provinces,the wheat comparative advantages should develop,improve the transportation conditions,create a good external environment for wheat production,and promote the wheat industry economic growth in these regions.In view of Anhui,Henan,Shandong,Hubei and other provinces,attention should be paid to the local moderate scale operation development and the resource allocation efficiency improvement.For Inner Mongolia,Hebei,Sichuan,Hubei,Ningxia,Shaanxi,Gansu,Shanxi and Heilongjiang provinces,appropriate measures should be taken to reduce agglomeration pressure through improve local agricultural infrastructure construction,improve regional wheat production capacity to ensure stable wheat production. |
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