Research On The Coordination Of Macro-prudential And Monetary Policy Based On The Supply-side Structural Reform

Nowadays,the systemic risk in the traditional risk system has become the focus of attention in financial industry,and the most effective way to deal with the systemic risk is to strengthen the macro-prudential supervision.Monetary policies in financial crises have been subjected to unprecedented challenges,urging countries to actively adjust their own to respond to new economic situations.Meanwhile,China is currently in a critical period of structural adjustment,transformation and upgrading.The 13 th Five-Year Plan put forward supply-side structural reform,which is to expand effective supplies,meet effective demand and accelerate the formation of institutional mechanisms and modes of development that guide the new normal of Chinese economy.The implementation of supply-side structural reform has become an important part of China's economic development strategy and macro-control.In the report of the 19 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China,the two pillars of monetary policy and macro-prudential policy were clearly mentioned.It is of great significance to strengthen the construction of financial macro-prudential management system and to construct the financial management system where monetary policies coordinate with macro-prudential management.Therefore,researches on the coordination of macro-prudential and monetary policies are bound to be both theoretically and pragmatically beneficial to Supply-side structural reform.Domestic literature on supply-side structural reform focuses on the theory itself,its connotations,the main problems and the main tasks,etc.Few researches have been conducted on financial risks that may be triggered in the reform process.Some scholars have studied the transformation of monetary policy on the supply side,but there have been few studies on macro-prudential and monetary policy coordination.Therefore,this dissertation,as a starting point,researches on the coordination of macro-prudential and monetary policies to promote China's supply-side structural reform,and to provide countermeasures for the healthy development of macro economy and the stable operation of financial system.The contents of this study are as follows: Firstly,it summarizes and combs through the reflection and practice of macro-prudential policy and monetary policy at home and abroad after the subprime mortgage crisis;Then,it analyzes themacro-prudential and monetary policies,collecting experiences and inspirations.Secondly,based on the status quo of supply-side structural reform in China,through analyzing the main contradictions and tasks,this paper studies the co-relationship among supply-side structural reform,macro-prudential and monetary policies,summarizes the appeal of macro-prudential and monetary policies to supply-side structural reform,and then pointing out the necessity of coordination.Thirdly,in response to the given questions,both theoretical and empirical demonstrations are offered.In the theoretical aspect,based on the DSGE model,this paper analyzes the lurking shocks for supply-side structural reform and the coordination of the two policies,and then studies their co-relationship and coordination modes.At the same time,taking into account the important position of commercial banks in China's financial system,this paper studies the impact of the implementation of macro-prudential and monetary policies on commercial banks' risk-taking;In the empirical aspect,through constructing VAR model,the effect of monetary policy on China's GDP,CPI and fixed asset investment is analyzed.Empirical analyses are targeted at the impact of China's macro-prudential and monetary policies on commercial banks' taking of risks.By constructing the Markov regime switching model,the loan interest rate is classified into two different situations,under each of which the dynamic impact of interest rate on the real estate market is studied.Finally,based on theoretical and empirical demonstrations,this study first provides suggestions for the optimization and adjustment of macro-prudential and monetary policies.According to the situation of China's supply-side reform and the relevant experience abroad,this paper puts forward the countermeasures on the coordination of macro-prudential and monetary policies from four aspects,namely,policy objectives,policy tools,transmission mechanism and efficiency,and organization.The main contribution of this paper can be concluded as follows:Firstly,this paper studies the ways to promote supply-side structural reform through exploring the coordination modes of macro-prudential and monetary policies.Based on conclusions on cutting overcapacity,destocking and deleveraging,the impact of supply-side structural reform on China's commercial Banks andmacro-economy is analyzed: China's commercial banks' credit risks are increasing,with regional financial risks being innegligible.Regions,industries and people are facing greater risks of unemployment.This paper theoretically analyzes the mechanism of the impact of supply-side structural reform has on macro-prudential and monetary policies and studies the necessity of coordination of the two policies.Secondly,empirical analyses of the influence of monetary policy on GDP,CPI and fixed asset investment show that interest rates have significant impacts on GDP growth and CPI and money supply on fixed assets investment.This also confirms the implementation basis of China's neutral monetary policy,indicating that the price index should be gradually improved and the moderation of monetary environment should be maintained in terms of price and amount.By constructing the non-equilibrium panel model and the PVAR model,the paper analyzes the impact of macro-prudential and monetary policies on the risk-taking of commercial banks.The results show that the capital adequacy ratio and the provision coverage ratio are different in risk control of commercial banks,and the two policies can cooperate with each other to effectively manage the risks in different time limits of commercial banks.Compared with macro-prudential policy variables,monetary policy variables have a weaker effect on bank risks,but the long-term effects cannot be ignored.Thirdly,by constructing the Markov regime switching model,this study explores the dynamic impact of loan interest rates on the real estate market in China during the period 2000-2017.The results show that interest rates have a significant impact on the real estate market under both types of interest rates.During the sample period,2/3 of the time was spent in a comparatively relaxed monetary environment in China,and during the loose monetary policy period,loan interest rates have a greater impact on the real estate market.According to the analyses of the transition probability and expected duration of the district system,it is shown that China has a high probability of being in a loose monetary policy period and a long duration,which provides a basis for the regulation and control of the real estate market through the supply-side structural reform.Lastly,this research systematically studies the objectives of macro-prudentialand monetary policies in supply-side structural reform.In order to better monitor macro-prudential policy implementation situation,intermediate targets should be set between the macro-prudential policy tools and financial stability objectives.Macro-prudential intermediate targets should harbor measurability,controllability,and correlation with financial stability and asset prices.Intermediate targets are supposed to focus on key industries and institutions,in view of the real estate industry,industries with excess capacity and financial institutions.And typical indicators are supposed to be monitored,which relate to credit size,credit allocation,liquidity of financial institutions and dynamic reserve and so on.