Research On The Impact Of Factor Price Distortion On The Non-performing Loans Ratio Of Commercial Banks And Transmission Mechanism

The 19th national congress report of the communist party of China(CPC)proposes improving the financial supervision system,keeping to the bottom line of no systemic financial risks,and resolutely fighting against and resolve financial risks.However,the non-performing loan of commercial banks has always been a core index to measure the accumulation of financial systematic risk.Whether the non-performing loan ratio of commercial banks is controllable plays a crucial role in maintaining the bottom line of no systemic financial risk.Since the reform and opening up,China has basically realized the market-oriented reform of the product market,whereas the reform of the factor market has been slow.There exist serious price distortions in all the factors,which would have a negative effect on the risk of commercial banks.Therefore,correcting factor price distortion and promoting factor marketization reform has become one of the goals in supply-side structural reform.This paper aims to study the impact of factor price distortion on the non-performing loan ratio of commercial banks under this background and test its transmission mechanism,providing new ideas and theoretical support for eliminating factor price distortion and reducing the non-performing loan ratio of commercial banks.The main research conclusions are as follows:First,by using an extension of C-D production function this paper measures the factors of capital,labor and energy price distortions of the provinces in our country during 2005 to 2016,and builds the factor price distortion.From the characteristic of analysis,I found the following changes:total factor price distortion takes on decline trend from 2005 to 2008,total factor price distortion takes on rising trend from 2009 to 2014,however,factor price distortions have been eased from 2015 to 2016;during this period,the changes of distorted price capital and energy elements were basically consistent with the changes of total distorted price factors,while the distorted price changes of labor were not significant.Capital and energy element prices are more distorted than labor prices.Second,the theoretical analysis,that of influencing factor price distortions in non-performing loans,is based on the dynamic panel system GMM model,tests the factor price distortion and the relationship between the commercial Banks non-performing loan ratio.The result of theoretical analysis shows that during the sample period.Total factor price distortions of commercial banks non-performing loan ratio have a significant positive effect,namely the factor price distortion promotes the commercial banks non-performing loan ratio to rise.The heterogeneity analysis shows that the price distortion of each factor has a positive effect on the non-performing loan ratio of commercial banks,but the effect is significantly different.The labor price distortion has the biggest promoting effect on the non-performing loan of commercial banks,the energy price distortion has the second biggest promoting effect,and the capital price distortion has the smallest effect.There are significant differences in the impact of factor price distortion among regions.The effect of factor price distortion on non-performing loan ratio in central and western regions is higher than that in eastern regions.Thirdly,I analyzed the transmission mechanism of factor price distortion affecting the loan ratio of commercial Banks through excess capacity and consumer demand from the perspective of supply and demand imbalance.In this paper,the DEA method was used to measure the capacity utilization rate at the supply end of all provinces and cities from 2005 to 2016.The variation trend of capacity utilization rate was basically consistent with that of the equipment utilization rate in the prosperous diffusion index of 5000 industrial enterprises.On this basis,I build the transmission mechanism of factor price distortions by the intermediary effect method and the dynamic panel system GMM model,while,the inspection result shows that the total factor price distortions and each factor price distortions are able to inhibit capacity utilization and household consumption,and promote the commercial Banks non-performing loan ratio increases,which is "factor price distortions,capacity utilization drops,commercial Banks non-performing loan ratio rising"and "factor price distortions,residents' consumption demand has fallen,commercial Banks non-performing loan ratio rising" of the transmission path.Fourthly,I analyze the transmission mechanism of factor price distortion affecting the non-performing loan ratio of commercial banks through financial efficiency and financial leverage from the perspective of finance.This paper uses factor analysis method to evaluate the financial efficiency of the various provinces and cities in 2005-2016,building a mediation effect model and dynamic panel system GMM model of financial efficiency and financial leverage the mediation mechanism of the inspection,the empirical result shows that the total factor price distortions and each factor price distortions are able to inhibit the financial efficiency and financial leverage,promote commercial Banks non-performing loan ratio increases,which is "factor price distortions-financial efficiency and financial leverage up commercial Banks non-performing loan ratio rising"transfer path.Finally,the policy suggestions of the factor marketization reform are given according to the research conclusion of this paper.The innovation points of this paper are mainly reflected in the following aspects:First,this paper combines the element price distortion and the non-performing loan ratio of commercial banks,providing a new perspective to control the rising non-performing loan ratio of commercial banks.At present,the academic community has analyzed the causes of the non-performing loan ratio of commercial banks from different aspects,as well as the economic effect of factor price distortion.However,the relevant literature has not directly addressed how factor price distortion affects the non-performing loan ratio of commercial banks.Second,I make a comprehensive and systematic analysis of the transmission mechanism of factor price distortion affecting the non-performing loan ratio of commercial banks.This article is not a simple analysis of the factor price distortion to the direct impact of commercial banks non-performing loan ratio,but also in excess capacity,insufficient consumer demand,examining the financial efficiency and financial leverage four aspects factor price distortions affect the path of the non-performing loan ratio,found that the factor price distortion mainly through increased overcapacity,inhibition of consumer demand and financial efficiency,and increase financial leverage,so as to promote the commercial banks non-performing loan ratio to rise.It provides theoretical and empirical support for promoting factor marketization and controlling bank risk.