| The Nineteenth National Congress of the CPC pointed out that socialism with Chinese characteristics has entered a new era,the main social contradiction has been transformed into the contradiction between the people's growing need for a better life and the unbalanced and inadequate development.The economy has entered a stage of high-quality development from a stage of rapid growth.New contradictions and tasks in the new era require changing the mode of economic development,optimizing economic structure and transforming the motive force of economic growth,among which strengthening the basic role of consumption in economic development plays an irreplaceable role in promoting the balanced coordination of economic structure,enhancing the endogenous motive force of economic growth and improving the efficiency of structural reform on the supply side.Consumption is one of the three carriages to promote economic growth on the demand side,and improving the system of promoting consumption on the supply side so as to promote economic growth is one of the important guarantees of sustainable economic development.However,for a long time,the potential of consumption,especially of residents' consumption,has't been fully released.This contradiction has become increasingly prominent with the evolution of economic growth pattern.In recent years,the fundamentals of Chinese economic have begun to change essentially:the supply side crossed the Lewis inflection point in 2008,the demand side crossed the peak value of the long-term real estate cycle in 2014,then Chinese economy has entered a new normal of declining potential growth rate slowly.At the same time,the slow recovery of the international economy and the increasingly severe form of trade have made it difficult to sustain investment-drived and export-drived style,the role of consumption has become increasingly prominent.At the same time,the structural contradiction of economic development caused by the relatively insufficient consumption has become increasingly prominent:macroscopically speaking,consumption doesn't play its fundamental role in economic development fully,restricts the balanced coordination of economic structure and weakens the endogenous force of economic growth.On the micro level,the scale and level of residents' consumption is still difficult to meet the diversified and individualized needs of residents.The level of" consumption ability,consumption strenth and consumption willing " of residents is limited,which seriously restricts the people's need for a better life.Therefore,"perfecting the mechanism of promoting consumption,playing the basic role of consumption in economic development" has become the strategic requirement of changing the mode of economic development,optimizing the economic structure,transforming the motive force of economic growth and promoting high-quality development in the new era.Residents' consumption,especially urban residents' consumption,is the main component of the final consumption,which determines the scale,change and trend of latter.The essence of people's need for a better life is also to improve the scale and level of consumption.Therefore,the enhancement of the basic role of consumption lies in the consumption of urban residents.But what is the current state of urban residents'consumption?With the increasing contribution rate of consumption to economic growth year by year,does it mean that residents' consumption has played a leading role in economic growth?And what is the impact of increasingly significant heterogeneity on residents' consumption?By sorting out the basic situation of consumption and comparing it horizontally and vertically,we can find that the increase of contribution to economic growth of consumption is mainly due to the passive " superficial increase"caused by the decline of economic growth rate and the weakness of investment and export.The fundamentals of Chinese residents' consumption have't changed.The reality of consumption scale needs to be expanded,consumption tendency needs to be improved,and consumption structure needs to be upgraded is still obvious.The aggregate and structural problem are becoming prominent increasingly,which seriously affect the structural adjustment and power transformation of Chinese economic growth.The contradiction between the current status of residents' consumption and the requirements of economic development has become a strategic issue related to the overall situation of Chinese economic development,attracted widespread attention from the policy and theoretical circles.In order to explore measures to release residents' consumption potential,a comprehensive and accurate analysis of the causes of residents' consumption from the supply side and demand side is the prerequisite basis.The consumption situation of residents is the result of their behavior,which is the process of residents adapting to the consumption environment.Dialectical materialism enlightens us that,as far as residents' consumption is concerned,the characteristics of residents' consumption behavior are internal factors,which has heterogeneous individuality besides commonness,and consumption environment is external factors.The dialectical unification of consumption environment and consumption behavior characteristic in the study of residents' consumption is the proper methodology for exploring the current situation of residents' consumption and improving measures.From reform and open-up,rapid growth and continuous transformation of urban economic environment,"crossing the river by feeling the stones" and Markovian-style institutional construction,and the imperceptible and lasting Confucian cultural tradition have led to the environment faced by residents typical of growth,dynamics and uncertainty,which constitutes the external conditions for residents' consumption,the existing studies mostly start from this perspective,but it isn't the main factor,and it is difficult to reach a conclusion beyond the contention.Therefore,it should study from the perspective of the behavioral features,among which the habit formation is one of them.However,the characteristics of consumption behavior,which are the basis of the change of residents' consumption,are its fundamental causes of the change,habit formation is one of the basic characteristics.Habit formation theory is the inheritance and development of classical theory and the realistic fitting of the cross-period influence of residents' consumption utility.It holds that residents ensure the gradual improvement of utility through smooth consumption growth.Its essence lies in depicting the cross-period restriction and dynamic adjustment of residents' consumption.It has changed the risk preference of residents and the mechanism of external factors,reflecting the desire of residents to improve their consumption level and the prudence to reduce it.In the actual urban consumption environment in China,the habit formation is that,under the constraint of income endowment and the influence of uncertainties,in order to maintain the improvement of consumption utility,residents will choose to "Look before you leap",and it has heterogeneity among different residents.Therefore,in the actual consumption environment,starting from the perspective of habit formation combining the heterogeneity of resident consumption has theoretical and practical marginal value for a more comprehensive and accurate analysis of the status of urban residents'consumption.But do urban residents have significant habit formation feature?Why does it exist?How does it reflect the residents' caution behavior?Under the assumption of heterogeneity,what features does it present?How does it influence the scale,tendency and structure of consumption?How to explain the current status of residents'consumption?What kind of policies do we have to release residents' consumption potential?Comprehensive answers to the above are the premise to understand the current consumption situation of urban residents fundamentally.But,the existing analysis has't been able to give perfect answers.In order to improve the research and explore methods and measures,based on the summary of existing works,we start from the contradiction between residents' consumption and economic development,focus on urban residents,judge the consumption environment faced by residents based on the objective reality,and unify consumption environment and habit formation dialectically in the analysis of residents' consumption from the perspective of internal and external causes,commonness and individuality,as well as universal connection,combine supply-side and demand-side,quantity and quality dimensions,use dynamic,systematic and quantization,structured analysis methods comprehensively,establish an analytical framework that is in line with the consumption environment and reality.On the basis of analyzing the generation mechanism,influence mechanism and heterogenous influence of habit formation,this paper studies the reality of urban residents' consumption that total consumption needs to be expanded,consumption tendency needs to be improved and consumption structure needs to be upgraded from the habit formation degree,then make a further structured analysis combined with the heterogeneous consumption theory,and put forward pertinent policy suggestions.In theory,this paper combines habit formation with modern consumption theory and heterogeneous consumption theory,draws lessons from the analysis constructed by Alessie&Lusardi,Dynan,etc.,and then constructs analysis model which conforms to the consumption environment and consumption reality based on Buffer Stock and AIDS and so on.Empirically,this paper synthesizes time series data,provincial panel data and hierarchical panel data,and uses CSTS-FGLS,time series ARMA,State Space,panel VAR,panel 3SLS,panel SUR and other dynamic and relational methods.The robustness of the conclusion is verified by variables,data,methods and other dimensions.This paper is divided into eight chapters:The first chapter is introduction;The second chapter is literature review;The third chapter is in the new economic normal,the analysis of current situation of urban residents' consumption and urban consumption environment;The fourth chapter is test of the habit formation characteristic of urban residents' consumption from the perspective of total consumption;The fifth chapter is study of dynamic mechanism of the habit formation on urban residents' consumption from the perspective of consumption tendency;The sixth chapter is structured analysis of urban residents' consumption behavior from the perspective of income stratum heterogeneity;The seventh chapter is structured analysis of the overall and structured impact of habit formation on residents' consumption structure from the perspective of consumption structure and income stratum heterogeneity;The eighth chapter is conclusion of policy suggestions.The main conclusions and policy suggestions:Firstly,urban residents' consumption presents remarkable habit formation characteristic,which results and strengthens in the process of residents adapting to the consumption environment.In the consumption environment typical of growth,dynamic and uncertainty,the desire to improve consumption level constantly,the influence of multiple uncertainties,especially the uncertainties in expenditure,is an important factor in the formation and change of habit formation,and based on its strong intensity,we judge that it is one of the important factors leading to the situation of urban resident's total consumption needs to be expanded.Secondly,the reason that why habit formation is similar to a prudent behavior,is that under the restriction of income endowment and the impact of exogenous uncertainty,in order to ensure the improvement of consumption utility,habit formation characteristic will lead urban residents to reduce their marginal propensity to consume,and after the influence of uncertainty weakens,restrains residents' marginal propensity to consume from improving.In the mutual restriction,residents' propensity to consume tends to decrease eventually.Since the reform and open-up,uncertainties shock from the supply side have led to a strong intensity of habit formation of urban residents'consumption,reduced and restrained their consumption tendency.Thirdly,the habit formation characteristic of urban residents has significant income stratum heterogeneity,which leads to great stratum differences of residents'consumption behavior.Specifically,low-income residents are mainly focus on basic consumption,which typical of weak habit motivation and high consumption tendency;middle-income residents have strong habit motivation,low consumption tendency and cautious consumption behavior;high-income residents have strong habit motivation and high consumption tendency,but mainly status consumption.At present,the"pyramid" type of income distribution,expanding but "anxious" middle-income residents and outflow of status consumption have jointly restrained the expansion of urban residents' consumption.Therefore,the situation of urban residents that total x consumption needs to be expanded and consumption tendency needs to be improved,is a structural problem actually.Fourthly,habit formation has a significant impact on the structure of urban residents' consumption,and the impact has obvious stratum heterogeneity,which inhibits the evolution trend that the proportion of survival consumption gradually declines,the proportion of developmental and enjoyable consumption gradually rises.Survival consumption is still the key factor to determine the level of urban residents'consumption.But,the consumption structure of different income stratum residents is in different stages of evolution.Habit formation hinders the optimization and upgrading of consumption structure by slowing down the upgrading speed of low-income residents' consumption structure and hindering the further upgrading of middle-income and high-income residents ' consumption structure.The policy implication of this paper is:in order to release the potential of urban residents' consumption,we should expand the scale,improve the tendency and optimize the structure of urban residents' consumption systematically,realize the changes brought about by habit formation adequately,play the positive role of the system,mechanism,government and market,and take comprehensive measures from various angles and levels.Firstly,we should build a long-term mechanism for releasing residents' consumption potential,combine supply-side and demand-side factors,improve the system and mechanism of promoting consumption,stabilize and improve systems,optimize consumption environment continuously,so that provide favorable conditions for the expansion and upgrading of residents' consumption.Secondly,taking comprehensive measures to reduce the intensity and impact of habit formation,by maintaining the economy continuous and rapid development,promoting the diversification of residents' income sources,derating personal income tax,etc.,to maintain the continuous and stable improvement of disposable income of residents;by narrowing the income gap,improving the credit environment,especially the social security system,to reduce the uncertainty faced by residents,guide their expectation,and reduce the caution of residents to " Look before you leap".Thirdly,according to the features of each income stratum,establishing a structured mechanism to maintain the rapid growth of low-income residents' disposable income,reduce the "anxiety" of middle-income residents,and improve the quality and level of domestic consumer goods.Therefore,on the basis of guaranteeing the ability to consume,the daring to consume and the willingness to consume of residents,we should guide residents to expand consumption scale,improve consumption tendency and optimize consumption structure constantly,so as to enhance the basic role of consumption in economic development,meet the requirements of high-quality development of economy in the new era. |
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