Study On The Credit Evaluation Of New Agricultural Management Entities In China

Cultivating New Agricultural Management Entities and developing moderate scale operation of agriculture is a major measure to promote Supply-side Structural Reform of agriculture,which is a strategic choice for accelerating agricultural modernization.With the continuous development of New Agricultural Management Entities,financing has become increasingly difficult,and a scientific and effective credit evaluation mechanism is necessaary.This paper analyzes the development status,credit situation and credit system construction of New Agricultural Management Entities,explores the formation mechanism of credit risk of New Agricultural Management Entities,and systematically constructs credit evaluation system and credit information collection standards of New Agricultural Management Entities of family management,cooperative management and enterprise management.Finally,the credit scorecard method,fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method,Logistic and BP neural network,SVM,random forest,XGBoost and other machine learning methods are used to empirically study the credit evaluation of New Agricultural Management Entities.(1)Credit situation of New Agricultural Management Entities: This paper analyzes the development of new agricultural business entities,the development of credit and the construction of credit system,summarizes the development characteristics of New Agricultural Management Entities,and the main problems facing the construction of New Agricultural Management Entities credit system.(2)Formation mechanism of credit risk of New Agricultural Management Entities: Using NonCooperative Game Theory Model to study the formation mechanism of voluntary default risk,the formation mechanism of involuntary default risk from two endogenous and exogenous influencing factors,and summarize the effect of the credit evaluation of New Agricultural Management Entities.(3)Credit evaluation indexes system and of New Agricultural Management Entities: According to different characteristics,New Agricultural Management Entities are divided into three types: family management,cooperative management and enterprise management,and then constructs the evaluation indexes system;a complete,scientific and effective credit information collection standards is established for New Agricultural Management Entities.(4)Application of traditional credit evaluation methods in the credit evaluation of New Agricultural Management Entities.Taking the family farm as the research object,the credit scorecard method is introduced for the first time,which is commonly used in commercial banks' credit card risk management.The dynamic credit evaluation model is built to improve the original static model,and a complete loan overdue collection process is established.And study the application of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method for the farmer cooperative.(5)Application of machine learning method in the credit evaluation of New Agricultural Management Entities.Taking the leading enterprises in the market as the research object,BP neural network,SVM,random forest,XGBoost and other algorithms are used to study the application of dynamic adaptive credit evaluation model based on data mining in the credit evaluation of New Agricultural Management Entities.The innovations of the paper are mainly reflected in:(1)For New Agricultural Management Entities,the credit evaluation index system of family management,cooperative management and enterprise management is constructed,and a complete credit information collection standards is established;(2)Introduces the credit scorecard model,improves the static credit evaluation optimization into a dynamic model;(3)Introduces the machine learning method into the New Agricultural Management Entities credit evaluation,and constructs a dynamic adaptive credit evaluation model based on data mining,and proposes that the combined machine learning method represented by XGBoost will be widely used in the field of credit evaluation.