Research On Credit Risk Evaluation Of The New Agricultural Business Entities

The new agricultural business entities,which consist of family farms,large specialized households,agricultural cooperatives and agricultural enterprises with the characteristics of moderate scale,a high level of marketization,also including a strong competitiveness in professional and intensive management,has the obvious advantages in improving the agricultural production,creating the brand of agricultural products,ensuring the quality of agricultural products and driving the ordinary farmers,which is the backbone of realizing agricultural modernization.The new agricultural business entities,which is still in early phases of development,demand strongly in financing for land conversion,hiring of employees,purchasing production equipment,extending the product chain and so on.In consideration of the agricultural enterprise possessing integral accounting system,which can provide complete financial information so that allowed refer to the ordinary enterprise when take credit evaluation to the agricultural enterprises.The agricultural cooperatives are loosely organized by farmers,family farms and large specialized households,solving the problems of family farms and large specialized households credit evaluation means solving the credit evaluation of the agricultural cooperatives.Therefore,in the field of credit evaluation of the new agricultural business entities,the credit evaluation of family farms and professional large specialized households has become one of the key problems to be solved urgently among the theorists and practitioners.While the credit rating standard of them has not yet been built,combined with the lack of perfect governance structured financial system and effective collateral,it is difficult for the family farms and large specialized households to get financial support.So this paper takes the new agricultural business entities as examples,and uses the method of theoretical research and empirical analysis to study the credit evaluation of them subjectively.The main work is as follows:(1)This dissertation constructs the index system of new agricultural business entities that reflect the requirements of scientific developmentThrough the main operating characteristics of new agricultural business entities which is “moderate scale,a high level of marketization,also including a strong competitiveness in professional and intensive management”,and combined with “multiple perspectives analysis” and “5C credit evaluation criteria system”,also considering the high-frequency indicator of relevant research and the credit data for farmer used in the commercial bank,this dissertation set up the index system with 50 indicators.Secondly,based on the credit data of the new agricultural business entities subject,six indicators such as management cost and neighborhood relationship are deleted for the reason of data comparability.Then,through the partial correlation coefficient removing the redundant indicators,that the partial correlation coefficient is greater than 0.8 pairs while the F is smaller between the pairs,ensure the remaining 35 indicators with low relevance.Finally,the dissertation constructs the Wald statistic to examine for the significant of the Probit regression coefficient between the default state variables and evaluation indicators,and deletes the index that has a small influence on the status of non-compliance and whose regression is not significant,making sure the remaining 20 indicators are relatively weak while strongly discriminate capacity.The cumulative contribution rate indicates that the constructed index system with 45.45% indicators while describes 84% of the credit information.(2)This dissertation constructs the credit evaluation model of new agricultural business entities that discriminates default strongly.Based on the index system built in the third chapter including 20 indicators,this dissertation studies the validity of the Probit regression model and Fisher discriminant model respectively.As the empirical analysis demonstrates that,in different discriminant points the Probit Regression model has different discriminant effects,at the point 0.5,the discriminant effects is better.Even though the Probit Regression mode and the Fisher model have the same misjudgment rate was 8.33% at the First Error,the Second Error rate(2.63%)and the total correct rate(95.16%)of the Probit Regression were better than Fisher model,whose Second Error is 7.89% and the total correct rate 91.94%.It indicates that Probit model in the credit evaluation is better.In addition,there are also differences between the models in choosing the key indicators,in the Probit Regression,the highest interpretation indicator is income,then follows acreage,loan balance,registered trademarks,annual operating income and so on;while in Fisher model,the most effective indicators are acreage,loan balance,sale-channels,health conditions,mechanized,net income per mu.(3)This dissertation constructs the credit evaluation criterion of new agricultural business entities,and gives suggestions to the high-risk ones to prevent the risk.The credit rating of the new agricultural business entities are divided under the standard of the agricultural bank of China,which divide the customer into 4 levels with 8 grades,taking the -y*_j from the Probit Regression of each sample.For the high credit risk ones,the dissertation give suggestion form seven aspect: promoting the scale of operation;improving the net income per mu;strengthening the construction of agricultural products sales channels;ascending agricultural product quality,achieving agricultural brand management;concerned about the health status of the family members,to ensure stability;joining cooperatives,access to resources and so forth.