| International capital flows are an important phenomenon in the process of global economic and financial integration,and play an important role in the growth and stability of the entire world economic system.In the study of classical economic theory,capital is an important variable in the important production function.It determines the output level together with labor,technology and other factors,and achieves the growth of output by increasing capital input,increasing the quantity of labor,and technological progress.Some growth models,such as the Harrod-Domar model,use capital as the most important variable to examine changes in total income levels by examining the impact of capital on investment and savings.Like other tangible or intangible factors of production,capital can flow internationally.The capital market and the money market in different countries and regions are heterogeneous,and there are differences in the rate of return and risk.This will inevitably lead to the transnational arbitrage of private investors,and also regulate the balance of payments for the government to use foreign exchange reserve assets.Conditions are provided.By introducing foreign direct investment,medium and long-term equity or debt investment,and cross-border long-term credit closely related to actual production,developing countries can make up for the investment gap formed by various domestic reasons and promote the improvement of national economic level.International capital flows reflect and affect exchange rate changes in the foreign exchange market,prompting a country's central banks and financial management authorities to implement monetary policy,implement supervision,and formulate exchange rate policies.We must weigh various factors and indicators at home and abroad,and improve policies.Difficulty.The speculative nature of international capital flows will have a huge negative impact on a country's exchange rate regime,financial stability,and output levels.The ever-expanding scale of international capital flows is bound to have a profound impact on global economic growth: on the one hand,it accelerates the pace of financial innovation and promotes the development of international financial integration;on the other hand,the proportion of short-term speculative capital is increasing.The higher,it has greatly exceeded the control of a country's monetary authorities,threatening the stability of global financial markets.In the last decade of the last century,regional currency crises and financial crises broke out in Asia,Eastern Europe and Latin America.There are international speculative capital behind them.International capital flows are a double-edged sword for the world economic system,and have therefore been highly valued by theoretical researchers and policy makers.Since the 1990 s,world economic integration and financial globalization have made significant progress.On the one hand,the result is the increasingly strengthening of economic and trade cooperation between countries.It is a consensus to resolve international economic problems through negotiation and negotiation.It is closely related to the advancement of new technologies.Computers and information technology are advancing by leaps and bounds,and are widely used in various fields of economic production and social organization.They have had a tremendous impact on the international division of labor system and provided new impetus to the global economy.Under this premise,countries have relaxed control measures on capital flows.In fact,the financial development of globalization has made the obstacles and restrictions of funds crossing transactions increasingly low,and the cost and difficulty of regulation have gradually increased.The extent and extent of the impact of international capital flows on the world economy has been pivotal.The changes and developments in the world economy have increased the impact of international capital flows.From the end of the last century to the beginning of this century,a series of major events have taken place in the world's major countries and regions to promote the growth of the global economy.In July 1998,the European Central Bank was formally established,and the Euro was officially put on the market for circulation on January 1 of the following year.This is the most valuable international monetary agreement after the disintegration of the Bretton Woods system,and it is a bold attempt to resolve the contradictions between internal and external equilibrium.This will not only enable member states in the single currency region to circumvent the foreign exchange market risks through a unified exchange rate arrangement,but also slow down the price volatility of the product market throughout the EU,which will help promote the common economic growth of all member states.Looking at Asia,China and East Asian emerging market countries have gradually become the main trade surplus countries with the United States.In December 2001,China finally successfully joined the WTO,becoming an important part of the global supply chain,and the foreign exchange reserve water increased steadily.The East Asian countries got rid of the gloom of the 1997 financial crisis,attached importance to controlling the scale of foreign debt and implemented a more flexible exchange rate system,and re-entered the export-oriented rapid growth path.In this process,the transnational flow of capital has undergone tremendous changes.The United States,the world's largest economy,has made remarkable progress in economic and financial development.The Internet investment bubble at the turn of the century has caused the US stock market to undergo a wave of overheated investment.After the bubble burst and the market price is rational,the US manufacturing industry is growing rapidly,the employment rate is declining year by year,and the economic fundamentals are driving the stock.The market rebounded and promoted the deepening of financial markets.Derivatives continued to innovate and the scale of transactions continued to increase.In addition,at the beginning of the new century,the US real estate market also began a significant rise.Under the common prosperity of financial markets and real estate markets,the market value of assets held by US residents has risen steadily,which indirectly led to an increase in consumption levels.The growth of consumption has caused an increase in import demand,and the current account deficit of the United States has increased year by year.The most beneficial in this period is China and other emerging Asian markets,gradually replacing traditional industrial powers Japan and Germany,becoming the United States.Countries and regions with the largest trade surplus.The above events and changes have played an important role in stimulating international capital flows.The US dollar has flowed to emerging Asian economies with the US trade deficit.The euro and the US dollar have become the two most important reserve currencies under the international monetary system,whether International trade flows related to trade,or international capital flows related to financial market investments,have multiplied in terms of flows and stocks.This change has a very close internal relationship with the financial development of the United States.Financial development is a concept with extremely rich connotations.It does not simply mean that the financing function of the financial system has been developed.It also describes the changes in the size and structure of financial markets and the innovation of financial instruments.Generally speaking,financial development is the process of gradually improving financial functions and increasing market efficiency,and ultimately providing impetus for economic growth.Historically,the financial development of the United States has gone through a long and very efficient process.The US stock market and bond market have caught up and exceeded the European level in a short period of time,and the market size and transaction volume have developed rapidly.At the beginning of this century,the US capital market has become the most important financing platform for industrial manufacturers,and the speculation phenomenon is also very active.Due to the oversight of the Fed at that time,the result of the stock market explosion in 1929,and eventually caused the entire capital.The Great Depression of the world of the world.After the Second World War,the US government realized that the financial market had a major influence on the entire national economy,and thus strengthened supervision.A series of legal provisions were introduced to regulate the financial market.To reduce the systemic risks of the entire financial market,the financial institutions were strictly restricted.There are also provisions for derivatives trading.Subsequently,the international monetary system entered the Bretton Woods system.In this process,the transnational flow of financial capital was restricted,and the international capital flow as a whole fell into a low tide.But a series of events in the 1970 s changed the pattern of international capital flows.On the one hand,the US trade deficit has gradually increased,the dollar outflow has seriously reduced the persistence of gold-linked,the dollar credit has begun to decline,the speculative attacks on the dollar in the foreign exchange market have increased,and the Bretton Woods system has been unsustainable and eventually disintegrated;On the other hand,in the wake of the impact of the two oil crises,the Western countries experienced a sharp decline in output,the economic recession,and the stagflation,while the oil-producing countries accumulated a large amount of capital,because these countries did not have the investment to digest large amounts of funds.The channel was then invested in the international financial market and eventually flowed to Western countries with very developed financial markets.These events have brought international capital flows to a climax.During this period,the financial development of the United States has made significant progress.In addition to the traditional interest rate,exchange rate and currency instruments,the derivatives market has emerged as a mortgage product with low risk and high yield,which has attracted a large number of domestic and foreign investors.investment.The scale of the derivatives market has rapidly expanded,driving the entire financial market to flourish.From the 1980 s to the 1990 s,in the context of US financial development and the US dollar as the main reserve currency,international capital flows began to flow from the world's major trade surplus countries to the largest trade deficit country,the United States.In today's international capital flow structure,the proportion of financial capital is much higher than the industrial capital flow associated with the production of the century.Developed countries such as the United States export production-oriented direct investment to developing countries,while emerging market countries export financial capital to the United States.The US financial market has been chosen by global investors,especially financial derivatives investment has reached an unprecedented level.The strong liquidity drives asset prices to rise.In the process,the developed credit function of the US financial system has begun to play a role.As the market price of stocks,real estate and other assets held by private consumers rises,the scale of consumer credit also increases rapidly.Consumers' consumption levels are not related to income,but are directly determined by asset prices.Next,the level of total demand in the United States continues to climb.In the change of the international division of labor system,the manufacturing production in the United States began to shift to high-tech products.The proportion of traditional steel,petroleum,automobile and other industries in the national economy was gradually surpassed by virtual sectors such as finance and real estate.The production of basic consumer goods usually It is carried out by emerging countries.The increase in aggregate demand in the United States has led to an increase in import demand,which has led to the emergence of long-term stable foreign exchange reserves in the trade with the United States in emerging market countries represented by export-oriented economies.Like oil-exporting countries,it is difficult for emerging Asian countries to digest huge US dollar reserves.Due to the importance of the US dollar as a reserve currency,Asian countries use foreign exchange reserves to purchase long-term US government bonds.In addition,the developed financial markets of the United States have absorbed more.More Asian financial capital.These factors have caused long-term deficits in the US current account and long-term surpluses in capital and financial accounts.At this time,international capital flows have become unbalanced and manifested as a “central-peripheral” capital flow structure.The United States has no doubt.It is the core of the entire structure,and countries with trade surpluses can only be in the periphery.The imbalance in international capital flows has made the US consumer credit model sustainable,which has further stimulated the growth of the real estate market,and the associated derivatives have also climbed.The rise in the real estate market has stimulated the prosperity of the US domestic credit market and maintained consumption levels well above the level of developing countries,which in turn stimulated export growth in developing countries.Since the market price of real estate is the key in this process,the number of buyers with good personal credit and stable repayment ability is declining in the process of rising house prices.Therefore,credit institutions will have some poor credits and no Fixed-income groups are also approved as homebuyers,and such subprime loans keep prices of mortgage-and financial derivatives under high levels high.In order to continue the credit boom and asset bubble,investment banks further classify and package loans into securities based on the degree of risk,and based on this,they have developed structured financial derivatives,which has become a high-yield product that investors are eagerly awaiting.However,its risk has risen with the increase in subprime loans.With the rapid development of financial derivatives and the increasing leverage ratio of large investment banks,the financial market is easy to pass through the capital flow channels to other countries with higher correlation.The subprime mortgage crisis that began in the United States in 2008 caused a fatal blow to various financial institutions on Wall Street.At the same time,many offshore investors in Europe also suffered heavy losses because of the large purchases of structured products by foreign investors.The Wall Street financial crisis quickly turned into a global financial crisis.Fundamentally,the outbreak of the financial crisis is essentially the result of a serious imbalance in capital flows.When the real estate bubble burst,the credit crunch and the financial crisis followed,with consequent sharp declines in consumer demand,putting the US real economy in a difficult position and causing a violent impact on the global macro economy.The crisis has exposed many problems in the current world economic system.On the one hand,the savings-consumption model of the developed countries represented by the United States needs to be changed,the profit model of high leverage in the financial market must be corrected,and the regulation of derivatives and credit ratings must be strengthened;on the other hand,the export of emerging market countries The oriented growth model needs to be transformed,and East Asian countries must try their best to turn high savings into the driving force for their own economies.The outbreak of the 2008 financial crisis led to the most serious global recession since the Great Depression of the capitalist world in 1929-33,and the impact on the world economy and financial system has not completely subsided yet.The root cause of the financial crisis came from the imbalance of international capital flows since the 1990 s.From the perspective of the formation mechanism of imbalance,the financial development of the United States has played a catalytic role from beginning to end.The imbalance of global savings and the US consumer credit model are the key to the imbalance of capital flows.Financial development has promoted these two phenomena,leading to global trade.unbalanced.The impact of the imbalance of capital flows on the global economy is far-reaching.It not only brings the international monetary system into a dollar-based system,but also causes developing countries to fall into the dollar trap of credit currency mismatches,even by distorting asset prices.The US and the global economy have pushed into the bubble.The relationship between financial development and capital flows is solid and complex.The core position of the US dollar in the “central-peripheral” capital flow pattern has enabled the US financial development to have a profound impact on the world and ultimately lead to an imbalance in capital flows.And the global financial crisis.From the current point of view,the imbalance of international capital flows will continue in the short term.How to solve this phenomenon requires the coordination and exploration of governments.However,the financial development of the United States still has not received government-level supervision.Although the financial institutions that have contributed to the formation of the subprime mortgage crisis have suffered major losses,they still continue the pre-crisis business model after the adjustment of ownership.Few bankers are under the government.Accountability,the problem of mixed operations is still acquiesced by the government.Therefore,there is still huge uncertainty in where the US financial development will lead the US economy.This has forced us to reflect more on China's financial system construction and development. |
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