Global Imbalances: A Study Based On International Trade,international Capital Flows And International Monetary System

With the increase of the imbalance of trade between countries and the outbreak of the global financial crisis caused by the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States,the global imbalance has been paid more and more attention by the countries all over the world.Whether the globa imbalances can be effectively alleviated relates to the United States,China,oil exporting countries such as the imbalance of the development of the domestic economy,and has an important effect on the development of the world economy and the potential risks.This paper is on the topic of global imbalances,it deeply analyzes formation mechanism and influence and sustainability of lobal imbalances from three perspectives,including international trade,international capital flow and international monetary system.First,the current imbalance in the field of international trade is the trade imbalances between the United States,East Asian countries and oil exporting countries.There are many reasons for the trade imbalances,including the long-term imbalance between savings and investment in major countries,economic globalization,foreign trade policies of the major countries based on national economic interests.Second,the current imbalance in the field of international capital movments is capital flows from China,oil exporting countries and other trade surplus countries to trade deficit countries,which is an important reason of global imbalances can be sustained.Among the factors that influence the international capital flow,the global financial integration provides the institutional and technical basis for tinternational capital movments.Differences in the level of financial development between the United States and the surplus countries,so that more capital flows to U.S.Financial market which is more convenient and safer.Third,Global imbalances affect the adjustment and reform of the international monetary system.At the same time,the international monetary system including the exchange rate system,adjustment of balance of payments has an inmportant impact on the global imbalances.On the one hand,the economic status of the United States significantly improve after World War II,The dollar plays a leading role in the Bretton Woods system.Compared with other countries,the United States is in a dominant position in foreign economic relations,enjoy the privilege of treatment and grab huge benefits,so that other countries have a certain dependence on the dollar.On the other hand,,sovereign currency is an international currency in the international monetary system,which determines that the currency issuing countries must constantly export the currency to meet the needs of the development of the world,and the output of the currency is bound to form a persistent trade deficit in the field of international trade.Therefore,this paper comes to the cause of global imbalances.First of all,the imbalance of savings and investment,the difference of international comparative advantage lead to the imbalance of trade.Secondly,the difference of the development degree of each country's financial system leads to the unbalanced flow of capital in the world,which makes the global imbalances accumulate and persist.Finally,the defects of the international monetary system are the root causes of the global imbalances.After analyzing the performance and reasons of the global imbalance,this paper analyzes the sustainability of the global imbalance from three angles: international trade,international capital flow and international monetary system.In the short term,due to the strong complementarity between China and the United States,the higher cost of capital adjustment,and dependence on the dollar,the global imbalances will continue to exist.But in the long term,there are many factors which will reduce the sustainability of global imbalances,such as the adjustment of economic structure,enhancement of transformation of savings to investment,gradual liberalization of the capital market,and the improvement of the status of the RMB.Finally,the paper puts forward some suggestions to alleviate and solve global imbalances,that is adjustment of unbalanced countries,international economic coordination and reform of international monetary system.This paper is divided into seven chapters.The first chapter is the introduction,including the background and significance of the topic,as well as literature review and research methods.The second chapter is the general analysis and theoretical basis of the global imbalances.The third chapter analyzes the phenomenon and formation mechanism of global imbalances from the perspective of international trade imbalance.The fourth chapter analyzes the phenomenon and formation mechanism of global imbalances from the perspective of international capital flows.The fifth chapter analyzes the formation mechanism of global imbalances from the perspective of international monetary system.The sixth chapter analyzes the impact and sustainability of global imbalances.The seventh chapter puts forward some suggestions to alleviate the global imbalances.