Research On The Influence Of North-South Regional Trade Agreements On Economic Growth Of Late-developing Member Countries From The Perspective Of Technology Diffusion

Since the mid-to-late 1980 s,the pace of regional economic integration has accelerated significantly around the world,with a focus on the amount increase and scope expansion of regional trade agreements between countries.This round of regional integration covers many new features in terms of concept and practice,especially the north-south RTA with the participation of developed and developing countries as the mainstream trend.Leveraging the North-South RTA,developing member countries actively respond to the initiatives of developed partner countries in promoting trade liberalization and improving market access conditions,in order to seek access to developed economies to obtain stable external demand;The diffusion of advanced technologies from developed partner countries to achieve technological upgrading targets to serve their own economic growth.However,the above objectives are not achieved spontaneously with the completion of the North-South RTA,and the welfare gains and losses of developing member countries are still inconclusive.Therefore,an in-depth analysis of the impact of closer economic linkages formed by member states,including trade patterns and deep division of labor division patterns,on the welfare gains and losses of countries after the conclusion of the North-South RTA,especially the development of developing countries to absorb the advanced technology diffusion of developed partner countries.A series of factors,including the channel carrier,internal and external conditions,and the constraint mechanism are important for assessing the attractiveness of North-South RTAs to developing countries and predicting the long-term stability of the agreement.Based on the multi-disciplinary research perspectives and analytical tools of new trade theory,endogenous growth theory and new economic geography,this paper explores the economic effects of RTA through multiple models,and systematically studies the trade conditions and comparisons of different member states after the conclusion of RTA.Advantages,trade patterns,and ideological flows have been affected.On the basis of theoretical argumentation,the North American Free Trade Agreement NAFTA is used as an example of North-South RTA.The annual data of R&D investment in 16 sub-sectors in 15 OECD countries including the United States and Canada from 1987 to 2010 will be carried out.Indexing,forming panel data and fitting the domestic total factor productivity of Mexico's developing member countries in Mexico,and solving four different econometric equations to ensure the robustness of the results.The full text is divided into 7 chapters,arranged as follows.The first chapter expounds the background,research significance,theme focus,research methods,structural arrangement and innovation points of the thesis.The second chapter sorts and sorts the related literatures of the thesis,analyzes and summarizes the research methods and core ideas of each literature,and The development status and improvement space of the research fields involved in the literature are reviewed.The third chapter is based on the existing RTA classification statistics to briefly explore its evolution history and development context,distinguish the characteristics of the new and old regionalism,and comment on the regionalization wave caused by different stages.Development performance;Chapter 4 examines the economic effects of regional trade agreements from a static perspective,and builds an analysis framework based on the Ricandian and Heckscher-Ohlin model based on the Vinerian Framework to analyze the trade creation after the conclusion of RTA.And the impact of trade transfer effects on different member countries,and focus on the welfare impact of North-South RTAs on developing member countries;The fifth chapter expounds the economic effects of regional trade agreements from a dynamic perspective,and builds a trade equilibrium and growth model based on theRomer and Grossman & Helpman model based on the idea of the increase returns contributed by Romer,so as to analyze the open trade and relax the flow of ideas among member states after the conclusion of RTA.The economic growth effect on each member country;the sixth chapter aims to find empirical evidence of the impact of NAFTA on the technology diffusion among member countries as a North-South RTA paradigm,and proves the significant existence of this positive effect from an empirical perspective to support Developing countries seek to conclude such regional integration arrangements with developed countries.Chapter 7 summarizes the views of this paper and elaborates policy recommendations.The above theoretical analysis and empirical analysis of the economic effects of North-South RTAs on late-developing member countries.On the basis of this,it puts forward policy recommendations for the path selection of the future system improvement of China's “One Belt One Road Initiative”,and points out the lack of research in this paper and explores further research directions.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:First,the conclusion of North-South RTAs between developing countries and developed countries can effectively broaden the market size faced by enterprises in various countries,and not only help developing countries to coordinate with developed countries to improve complementary production specialization to play a comparative advantage and make up the disadvantages of the technology conditions or endowment structure,but also promote the intra-regional trade growth and investment expansion,so that advanced technologies of developed countries enter the developing countries through these important channels,and accelerate the latter's economic growth.Second,the empirical results of the TFP in Mexico indicate that on the one hand,the R&D diffusion effect based on Mexico's import trade by NAFTA partners the United States and Canada during the data period has a statistically significant impact on Mexico's domestic TFP,while other OECD countries in the sample have Trade channels with Mexico have not shown the effect of technology diffusion on it;on the other hand,the diffusion effect of US-based and Mexico-based trade-based technologies has been significantly different before and after the establishment of NAFTA,and Mexico's participation in NAFTA has a positive effect on domestic economic growth.Third,combined with the staged practical experience and existing problems of China's current “One Belt,One Road” initiative and other new regional economic cooperation platforms,it is of great significance and arduous task to coordinate the interests of different member states at different stages of development.Under the premise of "inclusive growth",China should take into account the use of market forces to maximize the total revenue of member countries and rationally guide economic resources to take into account the two responsibilities of the late-stage countries as an important issue to ensure the sustained and steady development of these cooperation mechanisms.The main innovations and features of this article are as follow:First,the system studies the economic effects that regional trade agreements may have on member states in both static and dynamic dimensions.The numerical simulation method is used to simulate the South-South,North-North,North-South RTAs of different endowment structures,technical conditions and actual income levels,which provides a more convincing choice for developing countries to choose the appropriate RTA.Suggestions.Second,improved empirical research and testing methods for transnational technology diffusion.In data mining,the rough aggregate economic data is discarded and the industry data is subdivided for sorting and application.In terms of data usage,the industrial added value is used as the key weight of the R&D spillover index of each country,which can avoid data selection.The collinearity and regression parameters caused by improperness are inconsistent.