Research On “Wave Phenomenon” Of Investment In Securities Funds In China

For a long time,the sharp fluctuation of individual stock price has become a "stubborn disease" that perplexes the stock market in China.Existing studies have generally shown that institutional investors,represented by funds,do not play a stabilizing role in the market and are the boosters for the sudden rise and fall of the stock market.In particular,with the participation of funds,the stock market is often full of "demon stocks".Stock prices frequently appear soaring and plummeting anomalies.Scholars generally attributed the stock market and individual stock price fluctuations under fund participation to the herd behavior of fund investment and feedback trading strategy,that is,there are various kinds of irrational behaviors such as mutual imitation,collective chasing and falling,making the fund become a major unstable factor in the securities market.However,on the one hand,with the deepening of relevant research,studies have shown that fund managers can obtain information in advance,and this information can bring significant excess returns.On the other hand,in actual investment,it is often found that the fund indiscriminately investigates the same stock and piles up its shares in the same stock.It can be seen that in some investment decisions,fund managers based on specific information advantages,not only simple herd behavior or feedback trading strategies,will simultaneously conduct selective transactions,and allocate more investment to the excavated stocks,or sell stocks in advance,resulting in a large amount of money pouring into or out of the same stock over a period of time,which in turn leads to a sharp rise and fall in the stock price of individual stocks.Based on the above facts,this paper believes that the sharp rise and fall of the stock price under the participation of the fund is a kind of sudden rise and fall caused by the fund manager's overall irrational "Wave Phenomenon of Fund Investment" under the limited rationality of the fund manager.If this conclusion is correct,then the "Wave Phenomenon of Fund Investment" will not only have a negative impact on the stock market,but also inhibit the investment level of listed companies themselves,and have a huge impact on the welfare of individual investors in the stock market.This paper makes a systematic study on the "Wave Phenomenon of Fund Investment".Firstly,based on behavioral finance,wave phenomenon and physical resonance,this paper constructs the theory of "Wave Phenomenon of Fund Investment" and carries out empirical verification.Then it focuses on the two basic conditions of the "Wave Phenomenon of Fund Investment" and the resonance effect when the value identity of the fund manager and the objective fluctuation of individual stock price converge to a certain value.Secondly,from the perspective of the stock market itself,combined with the investment level of listed companies and the welfare level of individual investor in the stock market,the article studies the negative impact of the "Wave Phenomenon of Fund Investment".Finally,the paper discusses the forecasting model and prevention and control path of the "Wave Phenomenon of Fund Investment".Through theoretical analysis and empirical research,this paper draws the following main conclusions:(1)In the "Wave Phenomenon of Fund Investment",the fund managers can obtain the information in advance and carry on the hidden transaction.When the value identity of the fund manager as a whole and the objective fluctuation of individual stock price convergence value exceed 0.90 or-0.89,the resonance effect will occur,causing the stock price to rise 48.4970% or drop 55.7674%.(2)The "Wave Phenomenon of Fund Investment" will have negative impacts on the trading entities of the stock market,which will not only reduce the information efficiency and liquidity of the stock market and increase the volatility of the stock price,but also inhibit the investment level of the listed enterprises.Meanwhile,it will make the welfare level of individual investors in the stock market fluctuate violently in a short time.(3)In view of the negative effects of the "Wave Phenomenon of Fund Investment",it is necessary to forecaste and control it.On the one hand,GA-ELM forecasting model has the advantages of high prediction accuracy and strong generalization ability,so it can be used as the forecasting tool of the "Wave Phenomenon of Fund Investment".On the other hand,this paper proposes effective prevention and control of the "Wave Phenomenon of Fund Investment" from the macro,medium and micro levels,namely,this paper puts forward specific prevention and control recommendations from six aspects,including the guiding principles of "Wave Phenomenon of Fund Investment" prevention and control,the balanced development of the fund industry,the improving the governance structure of listed companies,the increasing the degree of foreign investment in the stock market,and the monetary policy and individual investors in the stock market.The innovations of this paper are as follows:(1)This paper limits the research object to how the fund's investment behavior causes the sharp fluctuation of stock price,and integrates behavioral finance,wave phenomenon and physical resonance to explain the mechanism of "Wave Phenomenon of Fund Investment",which enriches the literature on the economic impact of the sudden rise and fall of individual stock prices,and provides a new perspective for the understanding of fund investment behavior and the study of its market functions.At the same time,it provides a new direction for the analysis of the causes of stock market volatility,which is of great significance to promote the rapid and stable development of the capital market in China.(2)From the two aspects of management wage rate change and limited focus transfer,the research studies the suppression effect of "Wave Phenomenon of Fund Investment" on enterprise investment level.On the basis of studying the function of stock financing,the paper also considers the function of stock in providing incentive and deepening the division of labor and cooperation,which not only enriches the literature on the influencing factors of the investment decision of the company,but also provides a new theoretical basis for listed companies to establish an effective incentive mechanism and improve the governance level of listed companies.(3)The article examines the influence of the stock price and the individual investor's stock holding simultantous change on the welfare level of the individual investor in the stock market,and shows the inherent mechanism of the fluctuation of the welfare level of the individual investors in the stock market,providing a theoretical basis for protecting the interests of individual investors.(4)The advanced econometric model and machine learning model are used in this paper.The fuzzy Regression Discontinuity Design and PSM-DID can effectively avoid the endogenous problem of parameter estimation,and truly reflect the causal relationship between variables.The application of these models are extended to the financial field,which enriches the scope of application of these models.In addition,the paper also adopts the GA-ELM forecasting model with good prediction effect to research the forecasting model of "Wave Phenomenon of Fund Investment",which not only improves the prediction performance of ELM,but also expands the application field of ELM.At the same time,this method provides an effective prediction model for the stock market regulators and has a certain policy application value for the prevention and control of financial risks.