| Since the 16 th CPC National Congress report set forth the goal of basically realizing industrialization by 2020 with the goal of establishing a well-off society in an all-round way,the reports made at the 17 th CPC National Congress and the 18 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China reaffirmed this respectively and conferred on China’s industrialization In the new era,Comrade Xi Jinping pointed out at the 19 th NPC Congress in 2017 that from now till 2020,it will be the winning stage for building a well-off society in an all-round way.This means that the next three years will be a crucial period for China’s basic realization of its goal of industrialization.Under the new economic normal,the industrialization of our country started to enter the slow lane,with various problems highlighted.Overcapacity has become the major challenge that China’s industrial development has faced during this period.At present,China’s overcapacity exists not only in the traditional industries,but also in some strategic emerging industries.Overcapacity has become a major stumbling block to China’s industrialization.However,with the slowdown of industrial development in our country,the industrial investment in our country has maintained a relatively high level since 2005.According to the data from the website of the National Bureau of Statistics,the total investment in industrial fixed assets by industry as a share of the total social investment in fixed assets at about 40%,the continued investment in a large number of new production capacity is closely related to the overcapacity in our industry in this period.Under the new normal economic conditions,industrial investment is the "ballast" and the "booster" that ensure the steady operation of the economy and the steady growth of the industry.It is also to foster new impetus for economic development,form a new point of economic growth,and promote industrial restructuring and promotion Supply-side structural reform of the important means.The 19 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China clearly pointed out that it is necessary to "play a pivotal role in investment in optimizing the supply structure." Therefore,the study of China’s overcapacity and industrial investment in this period is of great theoretical and practical significance for the Chinese economy which is at a critical period of industrialization.On the basis of reviewing relevant theories and literature research,this paper reviews the recent development of industrialization in China → the main problems of current industrialization → the calculation and analysis of overcapacity → the total amount of industrial investment,structure,efficiency and dividend analysis → industry Investment on the optimization of industrial structure,Which is the main line of in-depth study of China’s overcapacity and industrial investment issues.The specific arrangements are as follows:Chapter one,Introduction.It mainly introduces the research background,research significance,research content,research methods,research framework and research focus,difficulties,major innovations and shortcomings.The second chapter,theoretical basis and research review.This chapter first describes the related theories of "industrialization","production capacity" and "investment",and then reviews the current research status of scholars at home and abroad from three aspects: the evolution of industrial structure,the causes of overcapacity and investment,and simply reviews the current research status.The third chapter,The historical process of China’s industrialization.This chapter reviews the course of industrialization development in our country,including the process of industrialization before the founding of New China,the main contents of the industrialization development in each period and stage in detail,and the salient features of the external performance of our country’s industrial development under the new economic normal-Overcapacity issues were highlighted,For the development of the following study has played a bedding role.The fourth chapter is about the calculation and empirical analysis of industrial capacity utilization in China.This chapter mainly consists of two parts: the calculation of capacity utilization rate and the empirical analysis of the influencing factors.In the calculation part,firstly,the method of estimating the utilization rate of existing capacity is introduced.After that,the rate of capacity utilization of 31 provinces,cities and industrial sectors in China from 2010 to 2015 is calculated by selecting the super efficiency DEA model.In the empirical analysis part,the same inspection is carried out from the perspectives of 31 provinces and cities and industrial departments.31 provinces and cities are analyzed based on the panel fixed effect model.When analyzing from the industrial sector perspective,taking into account China’s "Classification of National Economic Industries" Standard revised in 2011,where the scope of the study selected 2012-2015,at the same time and 31 provinces and municipalities selected part of the model,based on capacity characteristics of the data features based on panel Tobit model analysis,which examine this The Relationship between Overcapacity and Industrial Investment in China in a Period.The fifth chapter,Analyzes the efficiency and dividend of China’s industrial investment since the reform and opening up.Based on the above conclusion,this chapter studies in depth the dynamic changes of industrial investment in our country on the role of industrialization development in four aspects: quantity,structure,efficiency and bonus.The emphasis is on the analysis of the efficiency and bonus of industrial investment.In terms of total volume,the changes of relevant indicators such as the total amount and proportion of industrial investment in our country from 1953 to 2016 have been examined.The structural aspects mainly include regional composition(eastern,central and western regions),industrial concentration(proportion of high-tech industries and representative heavy industries)And capital composition.The efficiency-based calculation method based on elasticity and margin mainly analyzes the economic efficiency,social efficiency(employment)and environmental factors(energy consumption,waste water,waste gas and solid waste emissions)of industrial investment.Dividend based on the dividend method from the perspective of the three major industries and provinces and municipalities to analyze the impact of industrial investment flows on China’s industrial capital productivity growth.The sixth chapter,The empirical research on the optimization of industrial investment and industrial structure in China.Based on the above analysis of the characteristics of excess capacity and industrial investment,this chapter focuses on the dynamic changes in the industrial structure optimization effect of China’s industrial investment since the outbreak of the international financial crisis in 2008,and mainly studies on the rationalization and advanced industrial structure.First of all,through index construction,we calculate the rationalization and advanced level of industrial structure in various regions of China from 2008 to 2016.Then,based on the panel fixed effect model,we examine the specific impact of industrial investment on the rationalization and the degree of industrialization during this period,and the mechanism of the impact of industrial investment on capacity utilization is also discussed.Chapter VII,Conclusion and Policy Suggestions.This chapter summarizes the main points of the thesis and the conclusion of the research,and puts forward the policy recommendations and future research prospects based on the relevant conclusions.The main innovations of this article are as follows:(1)A more comprehensive analysis of the specific extent of China’s industrial overcapacity and related factors since 2010.The current measurement of China’s industrial capacity utilization is mostly concentrated in 1978-2011,and most of the studies are conducted from the perspective of provinces and cities or industrial sectors.The literature that combines the two studies is still relatively small.Based on this,this paper selects the time range from 2010 to 2015 when measuring China’s industrial capacity utilization rate,and conducts research from the perspective of 31 provinces and cities and industrial sectors.In addition,numerous studies have linked the formation of overcapacity in this period with over-investment.They believe that over-investment is the direct cause of excess capacity in China,but it is also simply stated as a conclusion and point of view.It lacks industrial investment.In-depth research,this article analyzes the relationship between the two based on the analysis of industrial investment,which can ensure the integrity of the analysis.(2)Examined in detail the dynamic changes of industrial investment in China’s industrial development,employment-driven,environmental improvement and industrial total capital productivity growth rate.The growth rate of total industrial capital productivity is based on the “structural dividend” perspective of industrial investment.The existing literature on the study of capital dividends has been quite in-depth,but studies involving the 2008 new economic norm are still relatively rare.The research complements and enriches the existing research results.(3)Examined in detail the dynamic changes of the industrial structure optimization effect of China’s industrial investment since 2008,and discussed the mechanism of the impact of industrial investment on overcapacity.The existing literature mostly examines the impact of investment on economic growth or industrial structure,and there are still relatively few documents examining industrial structure optimization.After the outbreak of the international financial crisis in 2008,China’s industrial development began to decelerate.Considering that China is currently in the final stage of industrialization,examining the optimization effect of industrial investment on industrial structure during this period for practical significance China’s current industrial development.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1)China’s industrial overcapacity problem is serious from 2010 to 2015,industrial investment and production capacity during this period are closely related.From the perspective of sub-provinces and municipalities,except for some regions,there was a serious overcapacity in most parts of China in this period.The capacity utilization in the central region was superior to that in the eastern and western regions,while that in the western region was the worst.In view of the average annual capacity utilization rate of 31 provinces and municipalities,compared with 71.58% in 2010,the average capacity utilization rate in 2015 was 79.92%,an increase of 11.65%,showing a gradual improvement trend.From the perspective of the industrial sector,most industrial sectors have serious overcapacity with the exception of a few sectors;the productive capacity utilization of the manufacturing sector is superior to that of the mining industry and the production and supply of electricity,hot water,gas and water;Compared with 61.51% in 2010,the department’s average capacity utilization rate in 2015 was 69.55%,an increase of 13.07%,showing a significant improvement trend but still showing relatively serious capacity Excess problem.Through the empirical analysis of the influencing factors of capacity utilization in 31 provinces and municipalities in China,it is found that there is a significant negative correlation between industrial fixed asset investment and capacity utilization rate in this period.That is,the increase of industrial fixed asset investment will reduce capacity utilization rate and produce capacity Excess phenomenon.(2)Since 1986,the proportion of industrial investment in the eastern part of China has remained at 50-60% as a whole.The central region is between 23-36%,while the western region only accounts for 12-18%.The industrial investment in the western region needs to be strengthened;the economic and social efficiency of industrial investment is declining from 1954 to 2015,and the decline in energy consumption from 1985 to 2015 is significant.The declining trend of the emission factors of industrial wastewater,waste gas,and solid waste is obviously from 2001 to 2015,which shows that the energy saving and emission reduction effect of China’s industrial investment is obvious,but the economic and social benefits are gradually reduced;the dividend effect of China’s industrial capital flow is not obviously during the period from 1994 to 2015,the static effect has a negative contribution to the growth of total capital productivity.There are only 6 years of structural dividends in 22 years.The main source of the growth rate of industrial capital productivity during this period is the internal growth effect of industries in all regions.(3)From 2008 to 2016,the irrational degree of industrial structure in various regions of our country has intensified.Compared with the eastern region,the industrial structure in the central and western regions has a high level of irrationality.The overcapacity phenomenon is closely related to the irrational industrial structure during this period;Investment is positively related to the irrational degree of industrial structure during this period,the increased industrial investment will exacerbate the irrational industrial structure;from 2008 to 2015,the degree of advanced industrial structure in all regions of China is on the rise.The level of industrialization in the eastern region is significantly higher than that in the central and western regions.Industrial investment is positively related to the degree of industrialization in this period.The increase in industrial investment is conducive to the improvement of the degree of industrialization in the region.On the basis of the above conclusions,this paper proposes several policy recommendations for resolving excess capacity and optimizing industrial investment.First,we will promote the development of high-quality production capacity,eliminate inefficient and inefficient production from the supply side,and actively promote international production capacity cooperation to achieve production capacity “Going out of the business model”;second,promoting supply-side reforms in industrial investment,focusing on the principles of “fairness”,“green input”,“technological innovation” and “moderation” in industrial investment;and third,accelerating the process of structural reforms,especially the performance evaluation.The state-owned enterprises and the reform of the financing system must also strengthen the government’s ability to precisely regulate and control,thereby reducing the risk of macro-control.The fourth is to optimize the investment structure by upgrading the industrial structure.At the end of this paper,according to the research deficiencies,the relevant research prospects are proposed. |
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