The Research On How To Solve China's Industrial Overcapacity By Outward Foreign Direct Investment

As China's economy enters the New Normal, China's industrial overcapacity problem is increasingly serious, the phased and potential excess turn into actual and long-term. And serious overcapacity is likely to lead to our country's economy low-end locked, and finally fall into the "middle-income trap". To solve the serious overcapacity phenomenon in most of industries, countries decided to use a series of new opening strategies. With the help of The Belt and Road strategy, through the transfer of surplus production capacity, the foreign direct investment can solve overcapacity by cooperating with the countries that related to The Belt and Road strategy and using international market to promote domestic capacity to go out, and finally promote the transformation and upgrading of domestic industrial structure. In economic development under the background of the new normal, proved by expanding investment and stimulating domestic demand to resolve maneuver of excess capacity is limited. To reach an agreement with all the "The Belt and Road"related countries in the international cooperation capacity through foreign direct investment is a new way worth thinking to solve the problem of overcapacity in China.There is no doubt that OFDI how to resolve the overcapacity, what is the difference between the effect of foreign direct investment in different types of industries on the effect of excess capacity, how to use the "The Belt and Road " policy in our country to choose the appropriate industry implementation of foreign direct investment to solve excess capacity has become a problem worth studying.Based on the theory of industrial relocation, developing country foreign direct investment theory, constructs the theoretical framework, focus on resolving mechanism of excess capacity, the foreign direct investment from the microscopic analysis of the different types of OFDI resolving mechanism of excess production capacity, from the industrial transfer effect on macroscopic, industry correlation effect and intra-industry competition effect from three aspects, analyzes the mechanism of OFDI dissolve excess capacity. Not verify OFDI dissolve excess capacity mechanism,first of all, in this paper, using the method of stochastic frontier production function to our country 36 industry capacity utilization to measure, in order to measure the degree of industry overcapacity, the analysis of the current situation of China's industry overcapacity. Then, in order to estimate the capacity utilization is as explained variable, through dynamic panel estimation method (SYS GMM) empirical analysis the OFDI dissolve the role of excess production capacity, and the other influence factors' effect of OFDI on overcapacity is analysed using interactive items .Combined with theoretical analysis and empirical analysis results, this paper get the following conclusion:Firstly, the situation of our country industry overcapacity is grim, the excess to the overall development. Tap water production and supply industry of our country, the gas production and supply industry, coal CaiXuanYe, printing and recording media copy, oil processing and coking and nuclear fuel processing industry, chemical fiber industry, electric power, heat production and supply industry, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry and other 23 industry faces serious excess capacity.From the point of industry categories, electricity, gas and water production and supply industry overcapacity highest, mining height phenomenon is relatively serious excess capacity, while manufacturing only part of the height of industry overcapacity, the overall phenomenon of overcapacity in the lightest.Secondly, foreign direct investment on capacity utilization to the influence of foreign direct investment to overcapacity has certain effect to resolve. Moreover, we analyzed the effect of other influence factors who can be regarded as industries feature on overcapacity of OFDI by the interactive analysis method.we discovered:innovation investment proportion of the increase will strengthen dissolve the role of excess production capacity, the foreign direct investment on behalf of the innovation in the high technology industry is the high proportion of foreign direct investment to resolve the effect of overcapacity in the industry stronger; Increased industry monopoly will strengthen dissolve the role of excess production capacity, the foreign direct investment on behalf of the high degree of monopoly of the industry's foreign direct investment to resolve the effect of overcapacity in the industry stronger;Domestic investment proportion of the increase will weaken dissolve the role of excess production capacity, the foreign direct investment on behalf of the domestic investment proportion higher industry foreign direct investment to the industry overcapacity in resolving effect is weaker.Finally , according to the current situation of excess production capacity in our country, combined with the theory and empirical research of how OFDI dissolve excess capacity , six policy Suggestions are put forward on how to solve excess capacity by OFDI. Set up foreign direct investment strategy plan based on " The Belt and Road " strategy , provide policy support to dissolve excess capacity; Increased investment in innovation, to encourage high-tech industry foreign direct investment;Shift industry investment structure, reduce domestic investment, increase the proportion of foreign direct investment; Promote comprehensively deepen reform and institutional capacity to dissolve; Play and strengthen the international economic and trade platform, drive transfer surplus capacity; Using the "One Belt And One Road"financing strategy to provide financial support for reducing excess capacity.