Research About Monetary Union Between China And The Belt And Road’s Countries

Internationalization is the inevitable process of the rise of a great power,in which currency internationalization is the most important scale.The current RMB internationalization has become our country economy,politics and international competition is not open around the topic,as China’s economic power,the development of financial internationalization,political ecological environment improvement and further promote economic growth,economic structure reform in our country and international political struggle,both laid a basic condition for the internationalisation of the renminbi also puts forward many challenges on the internationalisation of the renminbi.In recent years,China has launched a series of measures to accelerate RMB internationalization strategy,but there are a lot of domestic and international "crack" against the internationalisation of the renminbi to chew,therefore RMB internationalization is into the deep waters.The Belt and Road is an important national strategy for China to promote internationalization.The promotion of "five links" with The Belt and Road is a vision of China’s rise and an effective strategy for China to go international.Strengthening economic exchanges with The Belt and Road countries,political communication and people’s integration are conducive to world prosperity and stability,and monetary cooperation is the most basic guarantee and the first sign.Based on monetary internationalization connotation,theory,history,function,mode and means,and money,etc,on the basis of research results at home and abroad combing summary,think the most core is also the most basic function of currency internationalization is the international commodity pricing or account settlement function;At the same time this paper The Belt and Road initiative on the background,history,and vision are analyzed,and the combed summarizing predecessors’ initiative all the way about China area based on the research achievements of theory and practice,and according to the theory of monetary union,China and all countries to carry out the idea of a monetary union.In this paper,based on the above two,the international commodities denominated in renminbi function and all the way around China and countries build a monetary union,and based on this general yuan international commodity pricing function combined with a monetary union,the empirical monetary union influence on the international commodity pricing and pricing.This paper first analyzes the possibility of establishing monetary union between China and The Belt and Road countries.First of all,from the economic correlation,trade dependency,financial openness,fiscal integration and so on several dimensions to analyze all the way around China and the relationship between different countries,from more than one single standard to analyze forming a monetary union;Secondly,using the theory of monetary union,we analyze the long-term common trend,short-term common cycle and economic impact correlation between China and The Belt and Road countries.Finally,the possibility of establishing monetary union between China and The Belt and Road is analyzed based on endogenous hypothesis.On the basis of the empirical evidence,this paper gives some Suggestions on the formation of monetary union between China and The Belt and Road.This paper argues that monetary internationalization index can intuitively show monetary internationalization,but from the internationalisation of the renminbi relative index analysis of the existing results,some deficiencies still exist various index at present,or too general or too single,guidance to the operation of the state formulates RMB internationalization strategy is not strong.Especially in the initial stage of RMB internationalization,international commodity trade settlement and pricing is the core embodiment of RMB internationalization and the most important cornerstone for realizing RMB internationalization.Therefore,the establishment of RMB international commodity pricing index(RICII)is of great operational significance and will provide the most objective and clear data reference for the country to promote the internationalization of RMB.This article will China customs commodity trade data,bank customers and settlement data and combining the United Nations world merchandise trade data,solves the previous settlement currency with commodity categories corresponding to the problem,so as to realize the index points goods categories of RMB internationalization,can even further points regional commodity categories of RMB internationalization index.RICII has realized the internationalization measure of RMB,which is of great reference value for China to promote the internationalization of RMB with the advantage of world commodity trade.In this paper,in the preparation of the RICII index and empirical around China and countries build a monetary union,all the way to a monetary union combined with RICII index,compiled based on the further RICII index under the monetary union,quantitatively analyze the effect of the monetary union to the internationalisation of the renminbi.According to the above research logic,this paper is divided into five parts:The first part is the theoretical basis of introduction,literature review,monetary union and commodity pricing power.Includes the first chapter and the second chapter,this part firstly through the research background and analysis,put forward RMB denominated in international commodity trade rights,all the way around China and countries to establish a monetary union,secondly,by analyzing monetary union related theories and literatures on the internationalisation of the renminbi,clear the internationalisation of the renminbi research train of thought.In the second part,China and The Belt and Road countries build the economic foundation,current situation and single economic indicators of the monetary union.Including the third chapter,this part introduces the The Belt and Road initiative and promote the situation,and analyzes all the way around China and the national reality the differences of the economic foundation,to study the degree of economic integration,from the economic,financial,fiscal,and other single index analysis demonstrates that China and the area along the country sets up the possibility of a monetary union.The third part further demonstrates the feasibility of establishing monetary union between China and The Belt and Road.Including the fourth chapter and the fifth chapter,through combing theory and summarizes international monetary union on general method of reasoning,to this problem,the common trends and the economic cycle synchronization is whether a country or region can join two important indicator of monetary union.When different economies in response to the economic impact,show the common characteristics,these economies could form a monetary union,conform to the standard in a monetary union,therefore,all the way to the neighbourhood countries and China’s economic impact correlation inspection is conducive to further determine the possibility of forming a monetary union.Although some economies do not accord with standard of monetary union at the beginning,but after forming,due to the intrinsic driving force,to satisfy the standard of the monetary union between economies,this is endogenous hypothesis.Therefore,this part from the economic cycle is common trend and synchronicity,response to the economic impact of symmetry,and endogenous assumption to the empirical analysis of China and the region such as the feasibility of all the countries build a monetary union.The fourth part,the study of the RMB international commodity price index and the comparison before and after the monetary union.Including the sixth chapter,this section combines China’s import and export trade data with a large bank’s capital settlement data to calculate the use of RMB in international commodity trade.In the world,the international commodity pricing index(RICII)of the commodity is proposed for the first time based on the currency valuation of commodities.Currency union’s influence on the international commodity trade of RMB.Based on the previous analysis,this paper selects some The Belt and Road countries to establish a monetary union with China,and then calculates the international commodity pricing of RMB after the establishment of monetary union.The fifth part,main conclusions,policy recommendations and research prospects.Including chapter 7,according to the previous analysis,combining the internationalisation of the renminbi and monetary union and commodities denominated in relations,policy Suggestions are given,put forward the way of monetary union,and enhance the international commodity pricing strategy,as well as the research is prospected.Based on the above research and analysis,the conclusions are drawn:(a)the international commodity pricing is still in a lower level,fractal items for renminbi-denominated measure is helpful for accurate assessment of each commodity RMB pricing power,have the important guiding significance to the operation.The value of RMB in international commodity trade is relatively low,so the 2016 RICII index is only 2.65,which indicates that the internationalization of RMB is relatively low.The bank of international settlement customer data combined with the customs commodity trade data,the commodity classification dimension to identify various currency amount possible,solved the commodity currencies research statistical problems.Points goods dimension to analyze renminbi-denominated strength,realize the internationalization of RMB,more niche research,solve the problem of the traditional RMB internationalization research abstract,using more sophisticated data to measure the degree of RMB internationalization.Points of RMB denominated international commodity index of the goods,will be the implementation of the strategy of RMB internationalization strategy for the country has important reference value and guidance to operation,especially in the primary stage of the internationalisation of the renminbi,using China commodity trade power,to promote the internationalisation of the renminbi will find his right swimmer.(2)all the way around China and countries build a monetary union conditions still did not have,but with some countries build monetary union or monetary cooperation already exists endogenous driving force,also has strong realistic foundation and needs.From exchange rate fluctuations,degree of financial market integration,trade links,economic openness,inflation and financial integration,and other economic dimension,The Belt and Road national economy in general and China’s economy has relatively high alignment,with the construction of a monetary union economic and financial base,with China to build monetary union or the possibility of monetary cooperation,but from the perspective of the standard of monetary union,some countries still obviously do not conform to the monetary union with China,because of political unrest in these countries and regions,economic stagnation for a long time,the government’s inability to manage the social production,so also can’t provide support in terms of monetary cooperation,this is not conducive to monetary union.Analysis from the aspects of synchronization of economic cycle,all the way around each country in the long term and common trend in China,in the short term and common cycle in China,that is,they have a common economic integration characteristics,but also proved that some countries with China monetary union still exist certain difficulties and constraints.There is reason to believe that in all the countries with China during the period of economic cycle in the sample with synchronicity,in line with the basis for the construction of a monetary union,between regional economies are most eligible for building a monetary union.In terms of monetary shocks all the way around each country with China in external shocks,supply shocks and demand shocks symmetry is not completely consistent,so China should give preference to every parts of the region to form a monetary union,rather than forming a monetary union with all the way around all countries.(3)the combination of monetary union and international commodity pricing will be an important way to enhance the internationalization of RMB.And the area along the parts first forming a monetary union or commodity monetary cooperation,to promote these countries and China’s merchandise trade use renminbi,will enhance the level of the yuan commodities denominated,utility is very obvious.After the commodity pricing scale effect is formed,the discourse power of the pricing power of RMB will be strengthened.Therefore,the smooth implementation of the RMB internationalization strategy will also accelerate the promotion of The Belt and Road and have a benign interaction effect.In this paper,the following three research innovations are realized:This paper focuses on theoretical discussion and demonstration in monetary union,RMB international commodity pricing and currency internationalization,and strives to achieve innovation in the following aspects.One is to expand the area along the way the content of the initiative,from the perspective of monetary union to analyze all the way around China and countries build the possibility of a monetary union,at the same time,this paper tries to construct multi-dimensional multi-level monetary union,the purpose of the monetary union is diversiform,can form a number of different monetary union Allies can keep self monetary independence,the coalition of interests highly consistency,based on a currency as the core,at the same time to enhance monetary union of the external competitiveness,also promoted the union international use of currencies,the formation of a variety of currency internationalization propulsive synchronous.This paper innovates the theory of monetary union from this perspective.Second,based on the existing research results of RMB internationalization,this paper puts forward the model of RMB international commodity pricing index.Renmin university of China international monetary research institute of RMB internationalization index model is established,xiamen university,the international influence of RMB exchange rate index group established the international influence of RMB exchange rate index,raises the theoretical exploration of the internationalisation of the renminbi in China by a certain height,also provides practical guidance,but for the internationalisation of the renminbi at the core,or in the future the key indexes of the RMB internationalization is the most sustainable,yuan international commodity pricing research obviously deficiencies,this paper on the basis of predecessors’ research,preliminary established the international commodity price index(RICII).Three is to monetary union combined with international denominated in renminbi,puts forward the new path of RMB internationalization,and created a perspective based on commodity trade to selection of object of monetary union or the conduct of monetary cooperation based on commodity trade,for the internationalisation of the renminbi to a more operational path.Some deficiencies still exist in this paper: one is RICII accuracy needs to be improved,only based on the analysis of China’s international merchandise trade statistics RICII index,ignored the other countries in the world the usage of the yuan.Secondly,there is no further study on the multi-dimensional RICII of sub-regional commodity categories.RICII’s practicability needs to be strengthened.Thirdly,the influence factors of RICII have not been analyzed and studied.Four is China and the area along the country’s monetary union building based on the existing theory of the monetary union,the current world economy actual does not take into account,the differences between the diversity of the monetary union without distinction,often leads to argument is biased.Fifth,there is no in-depth study on the specific model of monetary union,and no different ways of monetary cooperation are proposed for China and different The Belt and Road countries.Sixth,the currency union has not been able to analyze and study the impact of commodity pricing or even commodity pricing.