Research On Fuzzy Multiple Attribute Decision-making Methods And Risks With Its Applications In Project Selection

Multiple attribute decision making is an important part of modern decision-making science,system science and management science.Its theory and methods have been widely applied to many fields,such as economy,management,engineering,military science and social science.The traditional multiple attribute decision-making methods often require the alternatives involved to have actual attribute values.However,the complexity of objects to be studied and the limitation of human cognitive ability make multiple attribute decision-making problems frequently accompanied by uncertainty.As a result,it is difficult to obtain accurate attribute values in decision-making process,and they are often given with fuzzy or linguistic information.Although general fuzzy numbers have shown good properties in dealing with uncertain information,we know that an intuitionistic fuzzy set is a generalization of fuzzy set,which take into account both degree of membership and degree of non-membership,so that it has stronger ability to describe uncertain information.However,when faced with a decision problem,a decision maker is sometime given an approximate interval description of decision-making information with which there are still difficulties in applying intuitionistic fuzzy sets.In addition,decision making often incur risks,and any deviation during the decision-making process of a project may result in serious loss.In view of it,this paper deals with fuzzy multiple attribute decision-making methods based on interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy numbers or trapezoidal intuitionistic fuzzy numbers and fuzzy risk analysis based on interval-valued trapezoidal fuzzy numbers,which are applied to the decision making and risk analysis of a project.The detailed work is as follows:(1)In order to compare interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy numbers(IIFNs),we define the concept of ranking function.The composed ordered weighted arithmetic averaging(COWA)operator and composed ordered weighted geometric averaging(COWG)operator are extended to the interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy sets which are respectively called interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy composed ordered weighted arithmetic averaging(IIFCOWA)operator and interval-valued intuitionistic composed ordered weighted geometric averaging(IIFCOWG)operator with which we present a multiple attribute decision making method with attribute values represented by interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy numbers.(2)In order to compare trapezoidal intuitionistic fuzzy numbers(TIFNs),we define possibility degrees of trapezoidal intuitionistic fuzzy numbers.Induced ordered weighted arithmetic averaging(IOWA)operator and induced ordered weighted geometric averaging(IOWG)operator are extended to the trapezoidal intuitionistic fuzzy sets which are respectively called trapezoidal intuitionistic fuzzy induced ordered weighted arithmetic averaging(TIFIOWA)operator and trapezoidal intuitionistic fuzzy induced ordered weighted geometric averaging(TIFIOWG)operator with which a multiple attribute decision making method is proposed with attribute values represented by trapezoidal intuitionistic fuzzy numbers.(3)When using fuzzy analytic hierarchy process to calculate the weight or discuss the decision-making risk,the consistency of fuzzy complementary judgment matrix is often investigated.Based on fuzzy implications,we define the degree of consistency of fuzzy complementary judgment matrices,and discuss the relationships between the degree of consistency of a matrix and that of its operations.The research provides a new idea for decision makers to measure the consistency of fuzzy complementary judgment matrix.(4)Based on the hybrid entropies and l~p distance,together with the risk attitude of a decision maker,we propose a new risk measure method under fuzzy environment.It can provide the theoretical guidance for decision makers to avoid and control decision-making risk.(5)Based on the interval-valued trapezoidal fuzzy number,the fuzzy risk analysis problem is further studied.A new measure of similarity between interval-valued trapezoidal fuzzy numbers is proposed and some related properties are listed.Combing some linguistic terms represented by nine interval-valued trapezoidal fuzzy numbers,the measure of similarity proposed in this paper is used to evaluate the fuzzy risk.As case studies,these methods in the paper are finally applied to analyze and make decisions for the projects.By using interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy numbers or trapezoidal intuitionistic fuzzy numbers to model four evaluation attributes of the projects,i.e.,innovation resources investment capability,innovation management capability,research and development capability,marketing capability,the multiple attribute decision-making methods given in Chapter 3 and Chapter 4 are used to make decisions,respectively.In addition,this paper take into account the technical risk,market risk,financial risk,production risk,management risk and policy risk of the project.Their risk values are represented by linguistic terms of interval-valued trapezoidal fuzzy numbers,and the measure of similarity of interval-valued trapezoidal fuzzy numbers given in Chapter 5 is taken to choose the project with the lowest risk.