Research On Brittleness Propagation Model And Management And Control Methods Of Complex Supply Chain System

With the development of economic globalization,how to improve the competitiveness of enterprises,the ability of risk control and emergency response,enhance the security and reliability of the supply chain system,has become a major issue on practice and development of modern supply chain.Supply chain system is a Complex Giant System with dissipative structure.With the development of modern science and technology and the division of labor in society,the trend of network and complexity of supply chain is becoming more and more obvious,and gradually presents characteristics of the state of complex network.The property of complexity makes the supply chain extremely unstable in the process of operation and development.When disturbed by any uncertain events such as natural disasters,equipment failures,supplier's bankruptcy,the supply chain is vulnerable to disruption.In severe cases,the domino effect may occur,which makes a network crash.The nature of which causes a system crash under the internal and external interference is the brittleness of the supply chain.It is the basic attribute of supply chain system.Supply chain brittleness is an important research direction of security and reliability of supply chain system.And it is of practical significance to study the brittleness of complex supply chain system.This paper focuses on the topic of research on brittleness propagation model and management and control methods of complex supply chain system.The main research contents and results are as follows:?1?The research system framework of supply chain brittleness theory is constructed.Based on the brittleness theory of complex systems,the theoretical framework of brittleness research in the field of supply chain is constructed.It consists of three parts:content framework,technical framework and theoretical support framework.The content framework consists of brittleness excitation mechanism,propagation mechanism,evolution mechanism,brittleness management and control strategy,which is the main line of this paper.Technical framework consists of the model for the multicycle and multi-objective mixed integer programming of supply chain network under uncertain demand scenario,a modified genetic algorithm,the multicycle and multi-objective mixed integer programming model of supply chain brittleness network assignment under uncertain demand scenario and uncertain brittleness disturbance scenario,model and simulation algorithm of the problem of brittleness excitation of supply chain under uncertainty,cellular automata model of brittleness propagation mechanism and simulation algorithm of uncertain supply chain,evolution mechanism model and simulation algorithm of uncertain supply chain based on the adaptive agent graph theory,and multi-objective and multicycle brittleness management and control model of supply chain system under uncertain demand scenario and uncertain brittle scenario.Theoretical support framework consists of uncertainty theory,mixed integer programming theory,topology theory of complex network and graph theory,cellular automata theory,the adaptive agent graph theory,and information entropy theory.?2?Research on flow distribution model and algorithm of Uncertain Supply chain multi-objective multi-period mixed integer programming.this paper takes two benefit factors including cost and service as the optimization objectives,considering such constraint conditions as multicycle supplier selection and order distribution,transaction relationship and link flow between nodes at different levels in the supply chain,material flow through nodes at different levels,distributor inventory flow,A multi-objective multi-cycle mixed integer programming?MMPP?distribution model for supply chain with uncertain demand scenarios is constructed.A modified genetic algorithm is put forward in order to solve the problem of the model.?3?Research on brittleness motivation model and simulation algorithm of uncertain supply chain.Aiming at the supply chain network under uncertain brittleness interference,the model and algorithm for probability of uncertain brittleness events is designed;the brittleness motivation parameters and calculation methods are designed;a mixed integer programming model for multi-objective and multi-period brittleness network of supply chain under uncertain demand disturbance is constructed;using this model as an assistant technology element,a simulation algorithm of brittleness excitation in supply chain complex network is constructed.By the simulation,the brittleness motivation process as well as the relationship between the occurrence probability of brittleness events and the result of brittleness motivation are analyzed.?4?Research on model of brittleness propagation model and simulation algorithm of uncertain supply chain.On the basis of the cellular automata theory of complex system,the cellular automata parameters,cellular and adjacency matrix,cellular neighbor,and cellular evolution rules of the supply chain are designed.Using the distribution model of supply chain brittleness network as the auxiliary technology element,the simulation algorithm of supply chain brittleness propagation cellular automata is designed.The brittleness propagation laws of uncertain supply chain such as the time property,power law property and the relationship between brittle source collapse scenario and brittle propagation effect,are simulated by example.?5?Research on brittleness evolution model and simulation algorithm of uncertain supply chain.Based on the adaptive agent graph theory and information entropy theory of complex system,the parameters and computing methods of supply chain brittleness evolution are designed,including state value of supply chain node and supply chain brittleness entropy value;based on the Stimulus-Response Model of Holland's Adaptive Agent Controller,the supply chain brittleness evolution model are established considering node adaptive behavior and not considering node adaptive behavior are constructed respectively;using the distribution model of supply chain brittleness network as the auxiliary technology element,a brittleness evolution simulation algorithm for supply chain adaptive agent graph is designed.Simulation analysis is made on the evolution law of node state value,node entropy value,global entropy evolution,seasonal evolution law of supply chain brittleness and the behavior law of supply chain brittleness evolution.?6?Research on Multi-objective Multi-cycle supply chain brittleness management and control model in uncertain demand and uncertain brittleness interference scenario.Aiming at the brittleness management and control decision problem of supply chain network and the optimization problem of multi-period network distribution under the interference of uncertain brittleness events,take two factors as optimization objectives,including cost and service benefit,three brittleness control strategies are proposed,including enabling alternative suppliers,repairing brittleness sources and enabling internal supplier flexibility,basing on which,a multi-objective multi-cycle supply chain brittleness management and control model under uncertain demand uncertain brittleness disturbance is constructed.The improved genetic algorithm is used to solve the model.A comparative analysis of three network distribution schemes is made including of supply chain network,supply chain brittleness network and supply chain brittleness management and control network.The sensitivity analysis of target preference coefficient,brittleness event crash probabilityand short stock penalty cost is also carried out.