Research On Innovative Development Of Treasury Cash Management In China

The establishment of a sound Treasury cash management system is a complex and huge project,which requires not only to ensure that the government is always able to pay the due commitments,but also to ensure that the government holds cash in the best cost-benefit way.At the mean time,the system should be well integrated with debt management,monetary policy implementation and financial market development.The development of the Treasury cash management is closely related to the reform of the Treasury centralized collection and payment system,maturity of financial market,the ability of government debt management and cash flow forecasting,which is a comprehensive embodiment of the government cash management ability.Treasury cash management in China can be originated in 2001 and has made a good progress in 2017.At present,China has established a sound cash management system,with which China has effectively activated the structural fiscal surplus funds,improved the use efficiency of funds,and stabilized short-term cash fluctuations of treasury cash.However,compared with western developed countries,Treasury cash management in China is still at preliminary level,and there are still many problems need to be solved,such as the treasury cash balance remains high,the management tools is insuffice,the forecast of treasury cash flow is not accurate enough,the optimal balance has not yet been determined and so on.Therefore,it is of great theoretical and practical significance to systematically sort out the historical context of the development of Treasury cash management in China.Based on the analysis of the achievements and existing problems,the author puts forward some Suggestions for improvement.Under the considering of the characteristics of Treasury cash management,this paper has made a deep study of the following aspects: Firstly,based on the implementation of key reform documents,Treasury cash management in China was divided into four stages.This paper sorts out the historical background of the reform of Treasury cash management in each stage,and summarizes the achievements of Treasury cash management in China.After sorted out the historical background,motivation and main characteristics of the reform,this paper summarized the achievements of treasury cash management in China,and emphatically analysed the outstanding problems that still exist.Secondly,paper had maked a thorough analysis of the problems existing in the treasury cash management from three perspectives: the cooperation among government departments,the financial management system and the design of the treasury cash management system,to find out the key crux.Thirdly,we have made econometric studies on the forecasting of treasury cash flow and the optimal treasury cash balance.And with drawing lessons from the experience of treasury cash management in western developed countries,we give some suggestions on improving treasury cash management in China.The content of this paper is divided into seven chapters: introduction,basic concepts and theoretical basis of treasury cash management,development course and existing problems of treasury cash management in China,analysis of the causes of existing problems in treasury cash management in China,prediction of treasury cash flow and optimal treasury cash balance based on combination algorithm,International experience of treasury cash management,research conclusions and policy proposals.Chapter 3,Makes an analysis of the development history and motivation of reform of treasury cash management in China.Summarizes the achievements and problems and analyzed three misunderstandings of treasury cash management in China.Chapter 4,Makes an in-depth analysis of the causes of the existing problems of treasury cash management in China from three levels,and points out that the causes of these problems are the miscellaneous operation of treasury cash management and the implementation of monetary policy,the imperfection of the treasury cash flow forecasting system and the absence of the optimal treasury cash balance.Chapter 5,With comparing predictive performance of the SARIMA Model,Long-Short Term Memory Network(LSTM)+ SARIMA Model,Support Vector Regression with Chaotic Genetic Algorithm(SVRCGA)+ SARIMA Model,we have analyzed the advantages and disadvantages of the three models.Chapter 6,Introduces the practice of treasury cash in the developed countries,such as the United States,Britain and Australia,which we draw lessones for improving the treasury cash management in ChinaBased on the complex causes of the existing problems of treasury cash management in China and the advanced experience of western developed countries,we put forward the following suggestions:1.Scientifically set up the responsibilities of the Ministry of Finance and the People's Bank of China in the of Treasury Cash Management and Make sure that the Ministry of Finance can operate the treasury cash management independently.2.Deepen the reform of our budget management system,refine budget preparation and strengthen budget implementation,and reduce the factors that caused the high and large fluctuation of the treasury cash balance.3.Further improve the treasury cash flow forecasting system,achieve daily accurate forecasting,establish an optimal treasury cash balance and maintain it basic stability.4.Enrich the operating tools of treasury cash management for investment and financing,enhance the comprehensive ability of the government to manage Treasury funds,further improve the reform of treasury centralized collection and payment system,and optimize the treasury single account systemCompared with the existing research results,the possible innovation of this paper lies in:First,it systematically analyses the causes of the existing problems in treasury cash management and puts forward corresponding reform proposals.The paper has makes an indepth analysis of the causes of the existing problems of treasury cash management in China from three levels,and has found out the key reasons that restrict the innovation and development of treasury cash management in China.On the basis of fully drawing lessons from international cash experience,it systematically puts forward policy suggestions,which makes this paper have better theoretical and practical significance.Secondly,we have explored the method of forecasting the cash flow of treasury and estimating the optimal treasury cash balance.With comparing predictive performance of the SARIMA Model,SARIMA+LSTM Model,SARIMA+ SVRCGA Model,we found out that combination algorithm has better forecasting effect,and has more advantages in treasury cash flow forecasting and optimal treasury balance forecasting.The shortcomings of this paper are as follows:Firstly,the coordination mechanism between central treasury cash management and local treasury cash management has not been studied.At present,both the central government and provincial governments have started treasury cash management,but the coordination mechanism has not been established yet.It is of great significance to realize the common development of central treasury cash management and local treasury cash management,and to strengthen the control of local treasury cash management risks.Secondly,the problem of setting the optimal balance of the Treasury of governments at all levels.Limited by the public data that can be collected,this paper can not further refine the central and local financial departments at all levels in the treasury cash flow forecasting and the optimal treasury balance.Because of the obvious differences between the central Treasury and the local Treasury,further refinement is of great significance.