Cash Flow Forecast Of Local State Treasury

The main purpose of the state Treasury cash flow forecast is to provide a future period of time the state Treasury cash inflows, the state Treasury cash outflows, and the state Treasury stock reference for the decision of the state Treasury cash management operations, thus reasonable arrangement of the national Treasury payment, effectively improve the state Treasury the service efficiency of funds, reduce the state Treasury cash flow volatility on monetary policy and the influence of interference. Although in recent years, the governments at various levels and the people’s bank of China positive attempt to carry out the local state Treasury cash flow forecast, continuously perfect the work mechanism of prediction, forecasting methods in study, but the low level of job of predicting overall. As the local government to the state Treasury cash management calls for mounting, especially where various flexible ways to carry out the cash management practices in fact already exists, to strengthen the prediction research of local state Treasury cash flow is urgent.Based on the analysis the current situation of local state Treasury cash flow forecast in China, discuss the local state Treasury cash flow forecast the difference between the main characteristics of the central Treasury cash flow forecast, point out the local state Treasury cash flow forecast object, with data in gansu province as an example, analysis the forecast object variation rule, on the basis of the thorough research to the state Treasury cash inflows, the state Treasury cash outflow, the state Treasury stock to form the main influence factors and its prediction, bring forward various projects of key and may be applicable forecasting methods, further to build stochastic time series forecasting model, grey system forecasting model, Back Propagation neural network forecasting model and using the method of budget schedule and so on carries on the empirical analysis, by comparing the applicability and prediction results of each model is proposed for the state Treasury cash inflows, the state Treasury cash outflows and the state Treasury stock prediction model. Due to the state Treasury cash flow data form is the result of joint action of many complex factors, only by any econometric model can accurately predict the future data, this paper emphasized the importance of prediction research of qualitative analysis, pointed out the objective model the main factors influencing the prediction precision and the effective ways to improve the state Treasury cash flow forecasting accuracy.