| Since the reforming and opening up,the achievements of China's economic development have been obvious to all.As the world's second largest economy,China's GDP in 2018 reached 90.18 trillion yuan.However,behind the huge economic aggregation,we need to see that under the influence of the increasingly severe and complicated global economic situation,the downward pressure on the Chinese economy is also increasing.China's economy has entered the stage of “three phases of superposition”,the regional economic development is seriously unbalanced,and public services are far from equalized.In order to obtain the driving force for sustainable development,local governments will exert their strength from the supply side,follow the “three to one,one reduction and one supplement”,and “enhance the efficiency of the economy”;on the other hand,they will exert their efforts from the demand side to strengthen the development of the people's livelihood projects.Increase investment in infrastructure and upgrade the current level of public services across the country.While the results of the reform will further benefit the ordinary people,we will explore the needs of the deeper people and strive to form a virtuous circle to better promote economic development.At present,the downward pressure on China's economy has slowed down the growth of local government financial resources.However,local governments need to further expand their expenditure levels in order to achieve urbanization,adjust the economic industrial structure,and increase the supply of infrastructure.It has put more and more pressure on local government finances.According to the "Golden Rule",local government capital expenditures cannot use general income,so it is necessary to make up for the easing of financial investment gap pressure through financing.In the past,many scholars have studied the advantages and disadvantages of different financing methods,but few scholars have studied the impact of financing structure on fiscal pressure,and from this perspective,how to optimize the financing structure from the perspective of financing configuration.This paper attempts to determine the impact of financing structure on fiscal pressure through empirical analysis,and then explore how to choose the optimal financing structure by predicting the financing needs of local governments.In summary,this article mainly discusses the following:First,clarify the significance,characteristics,methods and current problems of local government financing,and clearly point out that local government financing is an important guarantee for China to further promote urbanization and improve the supply of public goods and services.Second,define and analyze the financial pressure of local governments from the caliber of local government capital expenditures.Specifically,the relationship between local government financing structure and fiscal pressure is explored from three perspectives: financing scale,financing cost and financing risk.Empirical studies have found that the financing structure does affect the local government's fiscal pressure from these three perspectives,but the degree of impact is not the same.It is determined that there is a financing structure that can simultaneously satisfy the maximization of financing scale,minimization of cost and risk,that is,to achieve the minimum of financial pressure,and define this financing structure as the optimal financing structure.Thirdly,the threshold autoregressive model is used to detect the fluctuation of local government financing demand,and the financing demand growth is divided into expansion period,stabilization period and systole period.According to this characteristic,the scale of provincial local government financing demand in the next three years is predicted.According to the measured scale of financing demand,the multi-objective planning model is used to obtain the proportion and value of the provincial optimal financing structure under limited conditions.Fourth,based on the theory and data research of the article,it provides ideas and data support for future provincial-level local government financing.In the course of the discussion,this paper follows the following logical framework:Firstly,what is the financial pressure of the local government,what is the financing structure of the local government,and then through empirical research,it is found that the financial pressure of the financing structure has a significant impact,which is generated from the three dimensions of scale,cost and risk.Defining the optimal financing structure of local governments means maximizing the size of financing,minimizing costs and risks,even the financing structure with the least financial pressure.Then,the author used the multi-objective programming model to solve the optimal financing structure of provincial-level local governments under the constraints.Among them,the value of financing scale comes from the predicted value of the periodic analysis of the local government financing demand by using the threshold autoregressive model.The significance of the research is to help local governments choose the right financing method according to their own circumstances,so as to better control and try to reduce financial pressure.Specifically,the article will be divided into seven chapters:The first chapter is the introduction.It clarifies the background,research purpose and significance of the article,defines the core concepts appearing in the article,and conducts literature review and literature review based on the research focus.Finally,the research methods,research ideas and innovations of the article are written.The second chapter is the theoretical basis.The theory of financing,the theory of fiscal decentralization,the theory of new institutional economics and the theory of behavioral economics are sorted out and discussed,and the application of the theory in the article is written at the end of each section.The third chapter introduces the significance,characteristics and existing problems of local government financing,and expounds the historical evolution of the main financing modes of land finance,debt financing and PPP financing.The fourth chapter is the impact of the current financing structure of local governments on fiscal pressure and the transmission mechanism.This chapter first defines the financial pressure of local governments,analyzes the current situation of local government financial pressure under the author's definition,and finds that it shows a trend of increasing year by year,and then analyzes the main factors affecting the local government's fiscal pressure,and uses the pressure of financial revenue and expenditure as a lack of pressure.Comparative analysis shows that the fiscal revenue and expenditure pressure and fiscal investment pressure show a basically consistent development trend.Next,the author explores the path of local government financing structure affecting fiscal pressure from the perspectives of financing scale,cost and risk,and proposes the assumption that the panel data of 30 provinces and cities in 2014-2016 will be constructed by using SYSTEM-GMM model.Assume that the verification is performed and the robustness test is completed,and the results confirm the previous assumptions.Based on the results,it is concluded that there is a financing structure that can achieve both scale maximization,cost and risk minimization,that is,the goal of minimizing fiscal pressure can be achieved,and this financing structure is defined as the optimal financing structure.The fifth chapter uses the three-stage threshold autoregressive model to calculate the volatility characteristics of local government financing demand growth,predicts it based on this feature,and uses the prediction results in the multi-objective programming model.On the basis of satisfying the existing restrictions,the proportion and absolute value of the optimal financing structure of provincial-level local governments in the future are calculated.The sixth chapter introduces the choice of financing structure when foreign local governments face financial pressure,and provides experience for the choice of local government financing structure.The seventh chapter is the summary chapter.Firstly,the conclusions of the model are expounded,and then the policy recommendations are put forward according to the results of the model,and the inadequacies of the article and the next research direction are pointed out.There are three points in the innovation of the article:First,the concept of “local government optimal financing structure” was creatively proposed.The article clearly pointed out that the optimal financing structure of local governments can minimize the financial pressure of local governments.It is clearly pointed out that in this paper,the analysis of fiscal pressure is the fiscal pressure generated by local government capital expenditure,and then explores the relationship between local government financing structure and financial pressure from the perspectives of financing scale,financing cost and financing risk.relationship.The empirical study found that the financing structure does have an impact on fiscal pressure from the above three perspectives,but the degree of influence and direction of influence are not the same.This proves that there is a financing structure that can simultaneously satisfy the maximum financing scale,minimize cost and risk.This means that this financing structure can minimize the financial pressure of local governments,and the author defines this financing structure as the optimal financing structure.Second,the threshold autoregressive model is applied to the forecast of local government financing needs,and scientifically predicts the scale of provincial-level local government financing needs in the future.A three-stage threshold autoregressive model was used to use historical data to find that local government financing has regular volatility.According to the fluctuation cycle,the local government financing growth is divided into expansion period,stabilization period and systole period.The model is used to push the data,and finally the scale of financing demand of provincial-level local governments in the next three years will be obtained.Thirdly,using the multi-objective planning model,through the input of several provincial-level local government-related fiscal data,using the forecast value of future annual financing scale,based on the simulation,the provincial provincial government will be calculated through simulation.The financing structure and the absolute value of each financing method.In order to enhance the practicability of the model,the relevant values in the optimal financing structure of local governments in different situations are simulated by setting parameters. |
PDF Full Text Request