| Under the new normal,China's economy has been transformed from high-speed growth in the past to medium-to-high-speed growth.Insufficient economic growth,overcapacity,rising leverage,and unreasonable industrial structure have plagued China's stable economic development.To this end,after the economy entered the new normal,the management put forward the supply-side structural reform from the strategic level,trying to use the power of reform to resolve the problems of China's economy under the new normal,and to take the " Three to one and one to make up" as the goal of supply-side reform.As an important means for the government to implement macroeconomic regulation and control,monetary policy must play a certain regulatory role in the process of promoting supply-side reform.In order to promote the successful completion of the supply-side reform,under the new normal,China's central bank has expanded and supplemented the traditional monetary policy tools,and innovatively introduced “directional RRR”,“directed interest rate cut”,“stand-by lending facilities”,etc.New monetary policy tools have formed a new situation in the combination of traditional monetary policy tools,targeted monetary policy tools and structural monetary policy tools.The combination of diverse monetary policy tools allows different types of monetary policy instruments to interact and overlap each other,creating an unobservable potential driver.Policy makers and market participants can only observe changes in individual monetary policy instruments,but fail to identify potential common drivers.Therefore,for policy makers,it is impossible to accurately control the expected effects of monetary policy and the intensity of policy operations.For market participants,it is also impossible to form reasonable expectations for policy effects.In view of the supply-side structural reform task objectives under the new normal and the background of China's central bank monetary policy operation transformation,following the research ideas of Ouyang Zhigang and Xue Long(2017),this paper improves the appropriate FAVAR model in Bernanke et.Based on the research of al(2005),Koop & Korobilis(2010),Korobilis(2012,2013),etc.,the currency-combined TVP-FAVAR model and the currency-combined Panel-FAVAR model are constructed,one by one from the macro level and the micro industry level.Study the combined effects and trait effects of the combination of diversified monetary policy tools on leverage,innovation,inventory,and industrial restructuring;In addition,under the new normal,China's supply-side reforms have been significantly disrupted by the uncertainties of Sino-US economic policies.At the same time,in practice,the task objectives of supply-side structural reforms(leverage,innovation,inventory,and industrial structure)Based on these considerations,this paper refers to the method of Steven et al(2017),introduces the corresponding control variables in the monetary policy portfolio TVP-FAVAR model,and comprehensively considers the uncertainty of economic policy in China and the United States.On the premise that the supply-side structural reform task objectives go hand in hand,the multi-lateral monetary policy has a supply-side combination effect and a trait effect at the macro level.The main findings are as follows:In terms of the macro-sector leverage effect,under the new normal,the common driving force formed by the combination of quantitative and quantitative monetary policy tools is in the same direction as the leverage ratio of the family sector,the enterprise sector and the government sector,among which the leverage for the corporate sector is more obvious;the common driving force formed by the combination of price-based monetary policy tools and the leverage of the enterprise sector is inversely related to the leverage ratio of the household sector and the government sector.Judging from the trait effect of macro-level leverage,from the macro-level trait effect: under the new normal: M0 rise has a “de-leveraging” effect on the household sector,and has a “leverage” effect on the corporate sector and government departments;The narrow money supply M1 has a “leverage” effect on the household sector,the corporate sector,and the government sector;the broad money supply M2 rise has a positive effect on the leverage of the household sector,the corporate sector,and the government sector;deposit preparation The impact of the rise in the leverage ratio on the household sector and the corporate sector is “first increase and then increase”,while the government sector has mainly formed the “enhanced leverage” effect;structural monetary policy tools(SLF,MLF and PSL)and sector leverage Shows the same relationship,and the PSL policy tools are more powerful;the rise in deposit benchmark interest rates has a significant “de-leverage” effect on the household sector,the corporate sector,and the government sector;The effect is weak.In terms of industry leverage combination effect,the common driving force of the combination of directional,quantitative and structural policy tools is inversely related to industry leverage,and the common driving force of price-type policy instrument combination operation and mining industry,The transportation industry,the technology industry,the water conservancy industry,the cultural and sports entertainment industry,the manufacturing industry,the catering and accommodation industry,and the leasing ratio of leasing are inversely related,while they are in the same direction as the leverage ratio of other industries.In contrast,combined driving force of price-based policy instruments has a greater impact on industry leverage than the common driver of the combination of other types of policy instruments.As far as the industry leverage effect is concerned,the interbank offered rate,the rise in bank bond pledge repo rate and the leverage ratio of the mining industry,real estate industry,water conservancy industry,cultural and sports entertainment industry,catering and accommodation industry,and leasing industry show a significant inverse relationship.It has a significant same relationship with the leverage ratio of the construction industry,agriculture and the comprehensive industry.The rediscount rate and the benchmark interest rate of commercial bank deposits have a significant inverse relationship with the power industry,transportation industry,technology industry,manufacturing industry and comprehensive industry leverage.Rediscount rate and leverage ratio with water industry,information industry and catering industry Significantly in the same direction,the remaining policy instruments have a relatively low impact on industry leverage.In terms of the macro-innovative combination effect,the positive impact of the quantitative factor policy common factor has significantly improved the overall macro innovation.In particular,in the new normal stage of the economy,this same-direction relationship is more significant;under the new normal,the common driving force of the price-based policy tool combination formed by the operation has enhanced China's innovation in the current period,and it has had a negative impact on innovation after three months.From the perspective of macro-innovation traits,under the new normal,the rise of M0 has significantly improved the level of innovation in the short term,but after three months,the impact on innovation still shows the suppression effect,benefiting from the improvement of China's innovation environment under the new normal.The suppression effect has been significantly improved;during the Sino-US trade friction,M1 and innovation have shown a significant co-directional relationship;M2 has an inverse relationship with innovation;structural monetary policy tools SLF,MLF and PSL rise have positive for innovation Impact and long-lasting;the positive operation of the deposit reserve ratio policy tool has significantly improved innovation in the new normal stage,while the rise in deposit benchmark interest rate has significantly reduced China's innovation under the new normal;interbank lending rates and bank bonds The pledge repo rate and the macro innovation have an inverse relationship,and the new normal stage has been slowed down;the positive operation of ZN and ZTX has reduced the overall innovation of China,and it is more significant under the new normal.In terms of the combination of industry innovations,the combination of structural policy tools and quantitative policy tools has a relatively small adjustment effect on industry innovation portfolios,while the combination of targeted policy tools and price-based policy tools combines industry innovations.The adjustment effect is more significant.Targeted policy tools have a significant impact on innovations in the mining industry,the power industry,the construction industry,agriculture,the information industry,the entertainment industry,the manufacturing industry,the food and beverage industry,and the leasing industry,while the technology industry and water conservancy Industry innovation presents a significant co-directional relationship;price-based policy tools have a common impact on the mining industry,power industry,entertainment industry,catering and accommodation industry,and comprehensive industry innovation,and with the real estate industry,transportation industry,technology industry Innovations in the information industry and the leasing industry have shown a clear inverse relationship.As far as the industry's innovative traits are concerned,the bank's lending rate and bank bond pledge repo rate are positively impacting the innovations of the mining industry,the real estate industry,the water conservancy industry,the catering industry and the leasing industry,and the transportation industry.,agriculture and comprehensive industry innovations show obvious same-direction relationship;loan benchmark interest rate,rediscounting and power industry,technology industry,transportation industry,manufacturing industry and comprehensive industry innovation show a significant inverse relationship,and information industry innovation To the relationship;the trait effect of other types of policy instruments on industry innovation is not obvious.Compared with the financial crisis,under the new normal,bank lending rates and bank bond pledge repo rates have more significant effects on industry innovation;while M0,M1 and M2 have little effect on industry innovation traits;large financial institutions reserve The rate has little impact on industry innovation under the new normal,while the small and medium-sized financial institution reserve ratio has a significant impact on industry innovation;the adjustment effect of deposit benchmark interest rate on industry innovation is significant during the new normal period during the financial crisis.As far as the macro inventory combination effect is concerned,the quantitative and quantitative monetary and political policy tools have a reverse relationship between the positive combination operation and the inventory investment,and are more significant under the new normal.The diversity price monetary policy tool is formed by the combination operation.The driving force and the macro overall inventory investment show a significant same-direction relationship,but slightly reduced under the new normal.As far as the macro inventory trait effect is concerned,M0,M1 and macro inventory show the phenomenon of “monetary policy inventory mystery”,which has a “first reduction and then increase” effect on macro inventory;M2 positive impact has a positive relationship with inventory size.And during the financial crisis,it was more significant,but it was slightly lower in the new normal stage;the MLF forward operation significantly improved the overall inventory in the third quarter of the lag;the forward operation of the SLF showed a significant inverse relationship with the overall inventory;the new normal Under the bank interbank lending rate and bank bond pledge repo rate increased in the same period of three quarters with the macro inventory,the deposit benchmark interest rate and the one-year lending benchmark interest rate and China's overall inventory showed a significant same relationship,deposit preparation The increase in the gold rate increased the inventory scale in the current period,and the inventory was significantly reduced in the three quarters;the interest rate on agricultural loans and the increase in rediscounting significantly increased the inventory.In terms of industry inventory combination effect,the common factors of quantitative and structural monetary policy and the industry inventory show the same relationship,but the impact is small;the common factors of the oriented policy tools are positive impact and the power industry,real estate industry,construction industry The transportation industry,agriculture,and information industry inventory have a reverse relationship,which is in the same relationship with the mining industry,technology industry,water conservancy industry,manufacturing industry,catering and lodging industry,comprehensive industry and leasing industry inventory.The common factor of price-based policy tools is positively impacted with the real estate industry,transportation industry,water conservancy industry and information industry inventory,and has an inverse relationship with the inventory of his industry,including the power industry,technology industry,catering and lodging industry.And the reverse impact of agricultural inventory is more significant;compared with the old normal,under the new normal,the common factors of oriented policy tools have more significant impact on the inventory of water conservancy industry,comprehensive industry,transportation industry and power industry,and price-based policy tools The impact of factors on the real estate industry,transportation industry,technology industry,water conservancy industry,information industry,manufacturing industry and comprehensive industry inventory is more significant.In terms of the trait effect of the industry inventory,the M0 positive impact has a significant co-directional relationship with the mining industry,the catering and accommodation industry,and the inventory of the integrated industry,with the transportation industry,technology industry,agriculture,information industry,cultural and entertainment industry,manufacturing.There is a significant inverse relationship between the industry and the inventory of the leasing industry.The M2 positive impact has a significant similar relationship with the inventory of the power industry,real estate industry,transportation industry,technology industry,agriculture,water conservancy industry,information industry,cultural and sports entertainment industry,manufacturing industry,comprehensive industry and leasing industry.The forward operation of MLF,CK,M1,and ZBJX is positively related to the industry inventory.The rest of the policy tools did not respond significantly to the characteristics of the industry inventory.As far as the industrial structure adjustment and combination effect is concerned,the combination of quantitative policy instruments and the rationalization of industrial structure shows a significant co-directional relationship,and is more significant under the new normal,and has an obvious inverse relationship with the advanced industrial structure;price-type policy tool combination operation The formation of the common driving force and the industrial structure rationalization showed a significant co-directional relationship,and the industrial structure advanced in reverse relationship,but after five quarters,and the industrial structure advanced with a weak same-direction relationship.As far as the trait effect is concerned,the positive impact of M0 and M1 in the four quarters has significantly improved the rationalization of the industry,and it has been significantly enhanced under the new normal.In the three quarters of lag,the industrial structure has been significantly reduced;the rationalization of M2 and industrial structure has been reversed.The relationship is most significant during the financial crisis,and has an inverse relationship with the advanced industrial structure,and has been strengthened under the new normal;SLF positive impact has reduced the rationalization of the industrial structure and improved the degree of industrial structure;MLF has significantly improved The rationalization of the industrial structure and the reduction of the industrial structure;the deposit benchmark interest rate and the rationalization of the industrial structure showed a reverse relationship,slightly reduced under the new normal,and in the first three quarters,the reverse relationship with the industrial structure advanced,from the fourth The quarter began to show a positive relationship,and the long-lasting period was long;the increase in the benchmark interest rate of loans significantly reduced the rationalization and upgrading of China's industrial structure,but the new normality was slightly eased;interbank lending and bank bond pledge repo rate in the rationalization of industrial structure Presenting the same relationship,compared with the financial crisis,the new normal is slightly reduced,and the industrial structure is high.The leveling has a reverse relationship,which is most significant during the financial crisis;the increase in the deposit reserve ratio has significantly improved the rationalization of the industrial structure,and it is more obvious under the new normal,reducing the industrial structure to be advanced;the agricultural loan interest rate and the rediscount rate have risen.The rationalization of the industrial structure has been improved,and the industrial structure has been lowered.Under the background of comprehensive consideration of the uncertainty of Sino-US economic policy and the simultaneous improvement of the supply-side structural reform task objectives,the main conclusions of the supply-side combination effect and trait effect of the diversified monetary policy tools are: under the new normal,expansionary diversity The common driving force formed by the combination of quantitative monetary policy tools has a positive increase effect on inventory,and is affected by the uncertainty of US economic policy.This positive impact is obviously enhanced;it has a weak negative impact on innovation;The "de-leverage" effect;showing a significant same-direction relationship with the rationalization of industrial structure.The combination of diversified price-based monetary policy tools has significantly increased the scale of China's inventory,benefiting from the implementation of supply-side structural reforms,and this positive promotion effect has eased;it has shown the same direction with China's innovation;The rate shows an inverse relationship;it has an inverse relationship with the degree of rationalization of China's industrial structure.The benchmark interest rate of deposits has a significant inverse relationship with inventory,innovation,leverage and rationalization of industrial structure.Compared with the financial crisis,this reverse relationship is slightly reduced;the benchmark interest rate of loans is operating during the financial crisis and the scale of inventory.Under the new normal,it is slightly reduced,and it has the same relationship with innovation.It also gradually weakens under the new normal,and it has a significant inverse relationship with leverage.Under the new normal,the impact on the rationalization of industrial structure is not obvious.Under the new normal,interbank lending There is a significant inverse relationship between bank bond pledge repo rate and inventory and innovation,showing the same relationship with leverage,and a weak inverse relationship with the rationalization of industrial structure;M0 during the financial crisis and inventory,innovation and industrial structure rationalization Significant in the same direction,but in the new normal,it is a reverse relationship,showing a significant inverse relationship with leverage,and gradually decreasing under the new normal;M1 and M2 are significant during the financial crisis with inventory,innovation and industrial structure rationalization.The inverse relationship,which is in the same direction as the leverage,is significantly reduced under the new normal;MLF inventory Innovation and rationalization of industrial structure show a significant inverse relationship,showing a significant same relationship with leverage;SLF is more obvious with inventory,innovation,leverage and rationalization of industrial structure;deposit reserve ratio and inventory,innovation,industrial structure rationalization The same-direction relationship is more significant,and the reverse relationship with leverage is more obvious;the agricultural loan interest rate and rediscounting and leverage have obvious inverse relationship,and the same relationship with innovation,inventory and industrial rationalization,but the new normal stage,this same Significantly reduced to the relationship. |
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