| China's economy is at the stage of the transformation to the high-quality development driven by innovations,resulting in the needs of statistical support to make relevant policies.On the other hand,both the input-output rate and economic transformation rate of R&D in China are too low,resulting in the path of innovation-driven development is unclear.These two issues put forward the urgent practical requirements to measure scientificly the knowledge stock represented by R&D and its contribution to economic growth.As the nature of R&D assets has turned to be prominent gradually,SNA-2008 suggests that R&D expenditure should be capitalized.Many developed countries have followed to reform their R&D accounting,which provides theoretical basis and practical experience for China's R&D capitalization accounting.In this context,it is necessary and significant to discuss the method of R&D capitalization accounting,estimate the R&D capital stock and analyze its economic effect within the framework of SNA-2008.In order to describe the whole picture of R&D in China,it is necessary to measure the capial stock and the economic effects of R&D according to different regions,technology levels and types of activities.First of all,auxiliary indicators and statistical tests are used to supplement R&D expenditure,and the problem of classification and statistical range is solved;Secondly,“R&D expenditure ? R&D output ? R&D investment” adjustment is carried out by utilizing total cost method and full capital model;Thirdly,R&D capital stock is estimated by BEA approach following the study of methodology of defining R&D investment price index,the depreciationrate of R&D assets and initial R&D capital stock;Further,R&D expenditure is included in GDP according to the different adjustment rules of enterprise sector and non enterprise sector.Finally,within the framework of growth accounting,the output elasticity of R&D capital is measured and the hypothesis of constant returns to scale is tested.R&D capitalization accounting results in GDP up,but the change of GDP in each province is different,which may lead to the change of ranking.At the same time,R&D capitalization accounting has an impact on the measurement of the output elasticity of production factors.If R&D is not capitalized,the output elasticity of R&D would be underestimated,and the output elasticity of other production factors would also have a large error.While if R&D is capitalized and included in GDP,the goodness of fit of production function can be improved,and the economic effect of each production factor could be measured relatively accurately.The results at regional level show that:In terms of R&D capital stock,R&D capital stock grows rapidly,but the growth rate slows down gradually;the R&D capital stock of each province grows,but the regional disparity is significant,and the inter-regional disparity is the main source and has a trend of expansion;China's scientific and technological innovation changes from a single polar pattern dominated by Beijing to a multi polar pattern with three pillars in the Yangtze River Delta,the Pearl River Delta and the Bohai Rim Economic Circle;the capital stock of scientific research accounts for about 1/4 of the capital stock of experimental development,and the capital stock of scientific research and experimental development in each province also shows an increasing trend,but there are obvious differences among regions.In terms of R&D capital output elasticity,during 1998-2017,China's economy has the nature of increasing returns to scale,and the output elasticity of R&D capital is 0.09 on average,showing an increasing trend,0.15-0.16 in recent years;except for the central region,other regions show the increasing returns to scale,and the role of R&D in the eastern and central regions in promoting economic growth is becoming more and more obvious while the role of R&D in the western and northeast regions in promoting economic growth has only begun to appear in recent years;within the assumption of constant returns to scale,the output elasticity of R&D capital during 2009-2017 is 0.27,among which the output elasticity of scientific research capital and experimental development capital is 0.04 and 0.23 respectively.In general,the capital stock of R&D in China has a considerable scale with increasingly significant spatial relevance,and R&D has become a new driven force in China.However,there is an obvious “Matthew effect” in the disparity of inter-regional R&D capital.Due to the relatively high output elasticity of R&D and the increasing returns to scale in the eastern region and experimental development,R&D resources continue to flow to the eastern region with high economic level and the experimental development with fast profit rate,which further aggravates the imbalance of regional innovation ability and internal structure of R&D.The results at industy level show that:In terms of R&D capital stock,the R&D capital stock in manufacturing industry has a rapid growth;the high-tech industry represented by computer,communications and other electronic equipment manufacturing is the main force of scientific and technological innovation but it has no obvious effect on basic research and traditional manufacturing,meanwhile some industries of traditional manufacturing have been the new growth points of R&D capital stock although the contribution of traditional manufacturing has been decreased.In terms of R&D capital output elasticity,China's manufacturing industry is driven by physical capital and has the decreasing returns to scale during 1990-2017.The output elasticity of R&D capital is 0.08-0.09 on average,presenting the inverted U type change characteristics.The high-tech manufacturing industry is driven by R&D.The output elasticity of R&D capital is 0.38-0.40 on average,showing a very steep inverted "U" type change characteristics.The low-tech manufacturing industry is driven by physical capital and has the decreasing returns to scale,and the output elasticity of R&D capital is 0.03-0.10 on average,which fails to continue being significant.In general,the R&D capital stock of manufacturing industry is increasing,which has a significant role in promoting the development of industry,but the output elasticity of R&D is not high,and the production function has the decreasing returns to scale.High-tech manufacturing industry is the main force of scientific and technological innovation,which is driven by R&D capital and shows the increasing returns to scale.But it has a limited effect on other low-tech manufacturing industry and its development momentum is insufficient due to the lack of basic research.Low-tech manufacturing industry is still important in science and technology innovation.Although R&D investment has been increased to stimulate upgrading of low-tech manufacturing industry,this promoting role is only short-term and not sustainable,which shows that there are still many problems in the transformation of R&D product.The main contribution is to supplement the theory and method of R&D capitalization accounting,to measure the R&D capital and its effect at multiple levels,to effectively solve the missing and unmatched problem of basic data,and to put forward targeted policy suggestions: improve the R&D statistical classification index,unify the R&D statistical range,optimize the R&D structure and regional allocation,stimulate the transfer and absorption of R&D product,encourage high-tech manufacturing industry to enter the field of basic research,advance the effective integration of new technology and low-tech manufacturing industry. |
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