| In recent years,as East Asian economic cooperation has been continuously strengthened,East Asian regional trade integration has achieved remarkable achievements,but at the same time there are also problems such as lacking of deep institutional cooperation and the high dependence on external markets.Therefore,further development of East Asian regional trade integration is of great significance for deepening East Asian economic cooperation and reducing the risk of high dependence on East Asian external markets.Since the 1960 s,Japan has successively carried out industrial transfer to East Asian countries and regions through outward foreign direct investment,and has formed a “Flying Geese Paradigm” division of labor system,and thus establishing its “leading” role in East Asian regional economic cooperation.In the 1990 s,with the relative recession of the Japanese economy and the rapid growth of China,ASEAN and other countries,the vertical division of labor in East Asia was gradually replaced by the “East Asian Production Network” with vertical and horizontal coexistence.From the “Flying Geese Paradigm” to the “East Asian production network” evolution,Japan has fully played the role of “leading” and promoted the rapid development of East Asian regional trade integration through growing outward foreign direct investment.In the early 21 st century,China joined the World Trade Organization,after more than ten years,it quickly became the world's leading economy,the world's largest export country and the chief foreign direct investment inflow.At the same time,Chinese outward foreign direct investment has also started to grow rapidly,and the foreign direct investment flow to East Asia surpassed Japan in 2008.Moreover,China's market position in other product trades has been higher than that of Japan,except import markets for final consumer goods in the process of the development of East Asian regional trade integration.As a new “leading” in East Asian regional economic cooperation,China should fully learn from Japan's historical experience and adjust outward foreign direct investment policies in a timely manner to promote the further development of East Asian regional trade integration.Therefore,based on the theory of the impact of outward foreign direct investment on regional trade integration,this dissertation deeply analyzes the mechanism of outward foreign direct investment on regional trade integration,and comprehensively analyzes the impact of Japan's foreign direct investment in East Asia on the overall,regional and industry levels of East Asian regional trade integration through linkage development analysis and empirical analysis,and provides a better reference for China.Firstly,this dissertation analyzes the mechanism of outward foreign direct investment on regional trade integration based on the basic theories of the impact of outward foreign direct investment on regional trade integration,such as theory of production factor agglomeration,international fragmentation and so on,combined with the affecting factors of outward foreign direct investment on regional trade integration.Specifically,the change of comparative advantage between the home country and the host country is the driving force for the outward foreign direct investment to influence regional trade integration,the change of international division of labor is the basis for outward foreign direct investment to influence regional trade integration,and multinational companies play an important role in this process.Secondly,on the basis of reviewing the development of Japan's foreign direct investment in East Asia and East Asian regional trade integration,this dissertation carries out the analysis of the linkage development between scale and structure.At the scale level,Japan's foreign direct investment in East Asia has a complementary relationship with East Asian regional trade integration,Japan itself and the “Four Little Tigers” participation in East Asian regional trade integration,the regional trade integration of electrical machinery industry and precision machinery industry.It has an alternative relationship with China participation in East Asian regional trade integration and has an uncertain relationship with five ASEAN countries participation in East Asian regional trade integration and regional trade integration in the food,textile,chemical,steel and non-ferrous metals,general machinery and transportation equipment industries.At the structural level,there is a complementary relationship on Japan's foreign direct investment in the “Four Little Tigers” and the “Four Little Tigers” participation in East Asian regional trade integration.Japan's foreign direct investment on China and the five ASEAN countries is an alternative relationship with their participation in East Asian regional trade integration.The relationship between Japan's foreign direct investment in East Asia and its own participation in East Asian regional trade integration is not clear.There are certain differences in the relationship between Japan's foreign direct investment in East Asian and East Asian regional trade integration in various industries.Among them,it shows an alternative relationship between food industry and general machinery industry,a complementary relationship in the textile industry,the chemical industry and the precision machinery industry,and an uncertain relationship in the steel and non-ferrous metals industry,the electrical machinery industry and the transportation equipment industry.The result is not unrelated to the Japanese industrial transfer based on comparative advantage,the evolution of the East Asian division of labor model under the leadership of Japan,and the transnational operations of Japanese companies.Thirdly,on the scale of Japan's foreign direct investment in East Asia,the VAR models of Japan's foreign direct investment in East Asia and East Asian regional trade integration at the overall level,regional level and industry level are constructed respectively.The impact and contribution of Japan's foreign direct investment in East Asia on East Asian regional trade integration are analyzed by impulse response and variance decomposition.On the overall level,Japan's foreign direct investment in East Asia has a positive impact on the first 23 periods of East Asian regional trade integration,and it has begun to have a negative impact from the 23 rd period.Its impact and contribution are greater than economic scale,income gap per capita and economic openness.At the regional level,Japan's foreign direct investment in East Asia has a long-term positive impact on Japan and “Four Little Tigers” participation in East Asian regional trade integration,and has a long-term negative impact on the participation of the five ASEAN countries in East Asian regional trade integration,and has alternative changes of positive and negative impact on the participation of China in East Asian regional trade integration.The contribution to Japan's foreign direct investment in East Asian on the participation of economies in East Asian regional trade integration is in the order of the five ASEAN countries,China,the “Four Little Tigers” and Japan.At the industry level,the impact of Japan's foreign direct investment in East Asia on regional trade integration in East Asian industries is alternately positive and negative,and there are certain differences in the impact of different industries in different periods.Japan's foreign direct investment in East Asia contributes the most to the regional trade integration of the East Asian textile industry and contributes the least to the electrical machinery industry.Finally,through the comparison between China and Japan,China has surpassed Japan in the position of East Asian foreign direct investment sources and East Asian regional trade integration.However,the rise of China's position has had a negative impact on the Japan's regional function and East Asian regional trade integration.On the basis of Japan's historical experience,this dissertation summarizes the enlightenment to China: reducing the dependence on the external market in East Asia by strengthening industrial transfer within the region;paying attention to maintaining an appropriate balance when adjusting the regional structure of foreign direct investment in the region;and achieving the upgrading of China's foreign direct investment industrial structure in East Asia based on the principle of comparative advantage. |
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