Study On The Two-way Effect And Internal Plus External Conditions Of Capital Account Openness

As an important part of economic reform since the end of Bretton Woods system,capital account openness has always been controversial about its ultimate contribution to the world economy.Itisdifferent from the active participation in international trade or reduce tariffs in the past 40 years of Chinese reform and openness.Chinese capital account openness has always been based on the principle of gradual promotion.Compared with the major developed countries,current level of capital account openness is far behind.With the increase of Chinese economic volume and the new stage of reform and openness up.For the reason to promote capital account openness to find new economic growth points and commit the international community new requirements for Chinese capital account openness.In 2012,the survey and Statistics Department of the people's Bank of China published an article proposing to speed up the openness of the capital account and basically realize the full openness of the capital account in 2020.At the same time,a large number of experts and scholars are concerned about the possible cost of the of the capital account opennesswhich has caused the academic discussion on the capital account openness.Under the background of domestic and foreign reform requirements and academic debates,it is of great significance to clarify the mechanism of capital account openness on economic output,and put forward suggestions to help promote capital account openness with more benefits than costs according to the actual development of Chinese economy.Based on the review of relevant literature and the consideration of relevant theories,paper agrees that capital account openness has "two-way effect".Capital account openness can promote economic growth by optimizing capital allocation and human capital spillover effect,and at the same time,it will bring about the cost due to the change of capital flow volume and direction caused by capital account openness Whether the economic environment exceeds the threshold value determines the final net utility of capital account openness,which is not in favor of the one-way judgment of capital account openness utility.After analyzing the change of capital flow,we find that the result of capital account openness in high-income countries is better than that in non high-income countries.With the help of the international experience of capital account openness in the United States,Germany,Japan,three Latin America countries and Thailand,it is proved that "driving factors" such as domestic economy and institution,and "driving factors" such as external economic environment and pressure will affect the final result of capital account openness.In order to construct the equilibrium analysis framework,this paper also analyzes the determination and division of the economic and financial cycle and the dollar cycle,and summarizes the current world economic environment and Chinese external pressure,which provides the research basis for empirical analysis and the analysis of Chinese capital account openness.In the part of empirical research,first of all,through basic regression,it is proved that the capital account openness in the sample period has a significant role in promoting the economy of high-income countries,but not in other low-income countries.The same conclusion is obtained by using the GMM estimation and changing the measurement method of the capital account openness index.The regression results of replacing the statutory capital account open index with the real capital account open index also show that the openness of direct investment and securities investment has a more obvious role in promoting the economy of high-income countries,while the direct investment and other investments have a more obvious role in the economic growth of high-income countries.The second part of the empirical study to use the threshold regression model to verify the threshold effect of capital account openness.The results show that there are threshold effects in financial sector comparative advantage,foreign exchange reserves and institutional environment,among which the threshold effect of institutional environment is the most significant.The third sector of empirical analysis to use the method of group regression to explore the impact of external factors on capital account openness.The results show that when the dollar is in a weak period,capital account openness can promote the economy of high-income countries.At the same time,whether the world economic cycle is in a boom or recession stage,capital account openness is conducive to the economic development of high-income countries,but in a recession It is not conducive to the economic development of non high income countries.The results of empirical analysis prove that capital account openness is influenced by many domestic "pull factors" and external "push factors".At the same time,it proves that the expected return of capital account openness in high-income developed countries is greater than that in other non high-income countries.Finally,after the research object is locked in China,through the analysis of the capital flow recorded in the balance of payments after Chinese reform and openness up,it is found that with the development of Chinese capital account,the amount of capital flow has increased significantly,but the problems of capital flight and the long-term lower net return on capital flow have begun to become obvious.On the basis of analyzing the need for Chinese system and financial reform and the fact that the external economic environment has not yet reached the window period,we believe that China should keep the progressive principle of capital account liberalization in the short and medium term,so that after the capital account liberalization process and the domestic system and financial reform,it is proposed that the limited capital account content complementary reform and cooperation with the "one belt and one way" countries should be carried out.Carry out the pilot test of the content of capital account openness,expand to face the world's capital account openness under the ideal effect.