Study On The Cohort Effect,Period Effect And Age Effect Of Chinese Manufacturing Enterprises Total Factor Productivity

Total factor productivity is the ratio of total production to total input factors and it is an important indicator of a company's production efficiency.In particular,for Chinese manufacturing enterprises,total factor productivity can reflect the technical level and productivity characteristics of Chinese manufacturing.In the analysis of total factor productivity,most scholars ignore the differences in production efficiency between firms entering at different times.This paper decomposes total factor productivity into cohort effect,age effect and period effect,and examines the changes and causes of total factor productivity in different aspects,as well as exploring the changing laws of total factor productivity.In the past ten years,scholars have studied the total factor productivity by data enveloping analysis and stochastic frontier analysis,and decomposed it into technological progress,scale effect,resource allocation,etc.based on specific framework,ignoring the individual characteristics of micro enterprises.Considering the different cohort characteristics of micro-enterprises,some scholars use linear APC model to decompose total factor productivity and assume that the time effect is not trendy.They only analyze the changing characteristics of age effect and cohort effect.The method is assumed to be strong,and the possible trend of the period effect affects the estimation of age and cohort effects.For the decomposition of the period effect,age effect and cohort effect of total factor productivity,this paper creatively applies Lee-Carter extension models considering cohort effect used in mortality analysis to the study of total factor productivity,relaxes the hypothesis that the time effect has no trend.This paper considers that there may be a certain trend in period effect,which is more in line with the practical significance of total factor productivity.This paper uses the manufacturing enterprise data of China Industrial Enterprise Database from 1998 to 2007,calculates the total factor productivity of the enterprise according to the industry to which the enterprise belongs,and decomposes it.It focuses on the calculation of nine manufacturing industry related data,and presents detailed analysis of non-metallic minerals in particular.In this paper,the linear APC model,the cohort effect expansion model of Lee-Carter model and the corresponding simplified model are used to decompose the period,age and cohort effects of total factor productivity.The cohort effect expansion model of Lee-Carter model and its simplified form model can capture the characteristics of different effects in various industries and both work well.The results show that the age and period effects of enterprises are gradually increasing;the cohort effects of enterprises are stochastic fluctuations to some extent,reflecting the characteristics of enterprise production efficiency established in a specific period.