A Study Of The Impact Of Taiwan Agricultural Investment In Mainland China On The Export Of Taiwan's Agricultural Products

In the process of agricultural cooperation between the two sides of the strait,in addition to the complementarity of theoretical production factors,how to play their respective comparative interests and promote the simultaneous development of cross-strait agriculture will be an important key for long-term agricultural cooperation between the two sides.At the same time,in the process of agricultural cooperation between the two sides of the strait,both of them must benefit from the process of cooperation,and they can all resolve the doubts that people have generated in the process of cross-strait cooperation.Therefore,this study first uses the time series analysis method to conduct unit root test for agricultural investment and agricultural product export data;if the data is instability,co-integration analysis is performed,and if the data does not have a cointegration relationship,VAR model analysis is performed.The data has a cointegration relationship and an VECM analysis is conducted to explore the relationship between Taiwan's agricultural investment in mainland China and the amount of Taiwan's agricultural products exported to the US and Japan.Secondly,for the export value of agricultural products in Taiwan and the mainland in the US and Japan,the simplified constantmarket share model is used for dismantling to obtain its competitive effect.At the same time,using time series model to explore Taiwan's mainland China(general and narrow sense)agricultural investment is related to the competitive effect of Taiwan's agricultural exports to major international markets(US,Japan).The main findings of this paper are:First of all,the amount of investment in the narrow-minded agricultural investment in the mainland and the export of agricultural products from Taiwan and China to the United States and Japan has a co-integration relationship.Through the narrow-minded agricultural investment in the mainland and the export of Taiwanese agricultural products to the US and Japanese markets,it can be found that thelong-term investment in the narrow-term agricultural investment in the mainland has a positive impact on the amount of agricultural products exported from Taiwan and China to the US and Japanese markets.One result indicates that Taiwan's investment in agriculture on the mainland will help improve the export capacity of China's export-oriented agriculture,and therefore has a positive impact.In addition,due to the high production costs in Taiwan and the uncompetitive agricultural products moving out of mainland China,agricultural resources will be released and transferred to competitive agricultural production.Therefore,Taiwan's agricultural investment in the mainland will also promote Taiwan.Long-term exports to the US and Japanese markets.As for the short-term relationship between the narrow-minded agricultural investment in the mainland and the amount of Taiwan's agricultural products exported to Japan,it can be found that the impact coefficient of narrow-term agricultural investment in the short-term period on the amount of Taiwan's agricultural products exported to the Japanese market is-0.0920,showing Taiwan's going to the mainland.Intensive agricultural investment may have an adverse impact on Taiwan's agricultural exports to the Japanese market.On the relationship between general agricultural investment and Taiwan's export influence in the US and Japan,it can be found that once Taiwan's export value to Japan and the United States increases,it will increase the amount of investment in the land in the short term.The possible reason is that investors will be more motivated to invest in the mainland when the export volume to the US and Japan is booming.Secondly,in the analysis of the export competition effect of the fixed market share model,this study finds that in the short term,the competitive effect of Taiwan in the United States and Japan does not affect the competition effect of mainland China in the United States and Japan;The export structure demonstrated by the two sides of the strait in the US and Japanese markets is not a direct competition.At the same time,narrow sense and broad-based agricultural investment in the mainland have no effect on the competitive effect of Taiwan's agricultural exports to the United States and Japan;this result indicates that Taiwan's competitiveness in theUS-Japan market does not come from the investment in the mainland.It may be due to the impact of exchange rate,wages,etc.,which requires further research to explore in depth.In the past,due to historical factors,the two sides of the strait have rarely cooperated to expand the international market for agricultural products.They cannot effectively use cross-strait agricultural production resources and expand the international competitiveness of cross-strait agriculture.If the two sides of the peasant agriculture and fisheries can cooperate and open up the market together,it will not only reduce the situation of cross-strait agricultural and fishery products colliding with each other in the international market,but also enhance the income and technology of farmers and fishermen on both sides of the strait.On the other hand,for Taiwan produces good use of the advantages of the mainland.The advantages of Taiwan's agriculture are variety,technology,capital,climate diversity,talent education and market expansion experience;mainland China is rich in land,low-level human resources,and climate diversity.If Taiwanese businessmen can use Taiwan as a base for agricultural technology and variety research and development,combined with the vast land and labor resources of mainland China,and through the production and adaptation of cross-strait climate diversity,it will be beneficial to the expansion of the export volume of agricultural products.