Fueling the dragon: Alternative Chinese oil futures and their implications for the United States

This study examines how Chinese oil energy will likely shape future Sino-American relations under conditions of dependency and non-dependency. The study will list and describe three possible Chinese oil energy futures or scenarios (Competitive Dependency, Competitive Surplus and Cooperative Surplus) using Scenario Analysis to subsequently estimate their associated likelihoods using the PRINCE forecasting system and discuss and evaluate their strategic implications for the United States. Further, this study will determine the most likely oil energy future or scenario. Finally, the study will list and describe the most likely United States political, economic and/or military policy responses for each future or scenario.The study contributes to the literature on Chinese and United States energy security, foreign policy, political economy and political risk analysis by showing how China will most likely address its growing oil energy dependence and by determining what will be the most likely U.S. foreign policy consequences based on the most current literature available on energy security and foreign policy.