Using actuarial risk assessment to estimate the stability of child placements in foster and relative care

Placement instability has been associated with a number of negative outcomes--a lower likelihood of family reunification, a greater likelihood of reentering out-of-home care post-reunification, and child behavior and mental health problems. Intensive, supportive services have demonstrated the ability to reduce the likelihood of placement instability, but it is unlikely that agencies can provide intensive services to every child and caregiver in a foster or relative care situation. This dissertation examines whether an actuarial assessment can accurately classify placements by the likelihood of instability based on observable characteristics of the caregiver and child at the time of placement.;The characteristics of 683 children and the caregivers with whom they were placed between January and June 2003 in one of five California counties were examined relative to subsequent placement stability. Three actuarial assessments were constructed using the Burgess method: the child-based, the caregiver-based, and the combined caregiver- and child-based risk assessment. Findings showed that an actuarial assessment based on both child and caregiver characteristics more accurately classified placements by the likelihood of instability than did a risk assessment based only on the characteristics of one or the other, but that none of the risk functions accurately classified placements by the likelihood of foster child maltreatment by the caregiver. Additional findings showed that the combined risk score function was additive rather than multiplicative, and thresholds could be identified to classify placements into groups with distinct proportions that experienced instability. Effectively targeting intensive services to placements classified as high-risk using actuarial methods may help agencies reduce the occurrence of placement instability.