Transformation of the Bulgarian political elite in the period of transition. Its impact on the transition process

This study examines the transformation of the Bulgarian political elite that took place with the transition from communist to post-communist society. Drawing on classical elite theory and contemporary research on East European elites, I argue that two sets of factors determine the nature of elite transformation---the presence of a counter-elite and the degree to which this elite is organized, and the effectiveness of the auto-transformative mechanisms of the ruling elite (i.e. intra-elite conflict and modes of recruitment). Using a combination of quantitative and qualitative data gathering techniques, I analyze the nature and intensity of intra-elite conflict within the ruling communist elite; the emergence of an organized counter-elite; the extent to which the counter-elite was able to challenge the power of the ruling communist elite; and the difference in the composition and modes of recruitment of the communist and post-communist elites. In examining the process of elite transformation in Bulgaria, I address the wider and more important question of the role the elite played in the transition process and the impact it had on the transition outcome. East European transitions produced a variety of outcomes, with Bulgaria consistently lagging behind other countries from the region. Without viewing elite transformation as the sole explanatory variable, I argue that it significantly affected the outcome of the transition process. Elite action, more than anything, defines domestic and foreign policy choices, and hence, the direction and success of the transition process. Elite change in Bulgaria was defined by a strong and slowly reforming former communist party, unable to articulate a viable reform program; a weak and poorly organized opposition torn by internal conflict and lacking a unified vision of the transition and sound reform policy; and an opportunistic ethnic-based party changing allegiance every so often. This particular combination resulted in a sequence of unstable governments and reform policies that were stalled or reversed with each change in government. The nature of elite transformation in Bulgaria and the country's difficult transition pose the question of the link between elite change and transition outcome---a connection that renders the elite variable the more so important.