Dynamics of Land-Use and Land-Cover Change: The Case of the Palestinian West Bank

Limited land resources of the Palestinian West Bank have been under mounting stress particularly since its occupation in 1967. Land use and land cover change (LUCC) are a major aspect of this pressure. LUCC is driven by several factors including geopolitical, socioeconomic, and biophysical ones.;This study examines the trajectories and patterns of LUCC in the West Bank over a nine years time period (1994-2003) and investigates key drivers. The study seeks also to model the near future spatial distribution of LUCC. I use satellite images to detect LUCC during the study time period. I use logistic modeling of LUCC to study drivers of change and assess the likelihood of the near-future LUCC in the West Bank.;The findings of the study emphasize the influence of geopolitical factors as important drivers of LUCC, particularly urbanization. The administrative division of the West Bank into Areas A, B, and C, settlements, their road systems, and the distance from Jerusalem and ceasefire line are significant in driving land use/cover transitions. The influence of some socioeconomic drivers is mediated by geopolitical factors as indicated by the observed sprawl in rural areas instead of urban centers. The study shows that there could be a continuous Palestinian urbanization from southwest of Nablus in the north to southwest of Hebron. Israeli settlement expansion is most likely to intensify in areas of geopolitical importance to Israel. Palestinian community expansion is predominantly restricted to agricultural land in Areas A and B. Israeli settlements expand exclusively to Area C, predominantly to areas of natural vegetation and, to a less extent, to agricultural land.;Dynamic interactions among geopolitical, socioeconomic, and biophysical factors have important implications for the future of the West Bank. Saving agricultural areas and protecting natural resources may require taking measures such as directing Palestinian urbanization to non-agricultural land. To reduce the implications of constraining urbanization in urban centers, Palestinian planners might think of building shared utilities on regional, rather than individual community bases and directing urbanization to rural areas. Promoting transfer of land from Area C to Areas A and B would lessen the pressure on land resources, particularly in urban centers.