U.S. and Domestic Migration Decisions of Mexican Workers

The number of Mexican workers in the U.S. has surged over the last few decades. With about 500,000 new Mexicans arriving each year, among which 80 percent are undocumented, illegal immigration has become one of the most controversial issues confronting U.S. policymakers. My dissertation focuses on the determinants of the large scale Mexican out-migration to the U.S. and examines the impact of alternative U.S. immigration policies on the influxes of illegal immigrants.;In this dissertation, I develop a discrete choice dynamic structural model that explains migration decisions of Mexican workers within Mexico and across the American border. Each Mexican worker in the model chooses where to locate each period to maximize the discounted sum of expected lifetime utility. When the agent chooses out-migration to the U.S., he has an option to apply for an immigration document which may become available after an uncertain length of time. Border crossings also involve an uncertain probability of being apprehended which depends on U.S. border enforcement policy. The model accounts for differentials in wages and location-specific amenities as determinants of migration decisions, and previous migration decisions of individuals from the same village influence the value of the U.S. location choice. I estimate the structural parameters of the model using a source-country based retrospective panel data from the Mexican Migration Project.;I use the results to evaluate the impact of three alternative immigration policies: an increase in the number of available visas, an increase in the number of border patrol officers, and tougher control on unauthorized residence in the U.S. Simulation results show that Mexican migrants are very responsive to more stringent policies against illegal employment, as the number of Mexican immigrants in the U.S. decreases by as much as 60% in response to a policy that reduces the U.S. wages of undocumented workers by 30%.