Channeling the innovation stream: A decision framework for selecting emerging technologies

The proliferation of emerging technologies offers opportunity but also presents challenges to defense acquisition decision makers seeking to incorporate those technologies as part of the acquisition process. Assessment frameworks and methodologies found in the literature typically address the primary focus of a sponsoring organization's interest (e.g., a non-profit 'green' organization's focus on environmental issues). The lack of a holistic, systematic approach for these decisions inhibits the consistent treatment of emerging technology opportunities. The increasing convergence of emerging technologies and the need for multi- or trans-disciplinary collaboration requires a systematic set of considerations to improve consistency of decision making in early stages of the acquisition life cycle. Policy makers and society desire reassurance that defense organizations are incorporating emerging technologies in a safe, understandable, and consistent manner. That desire fuels a need for a systematic approach to consider a full suite of relevant factors when evaluating emerging technology opportunities as part of any management decision making process. This research makes the case for an approach that applies a decision framework for the consideration of emerging technology opportunities during the early stages of defense acquisition in the United States. Results of a cross-sectional survey of U. S. defense acquisition practitioners provide perceptions of the positive value of a systematic decision framework for assessing emerging technology in acquisitions. The survey results also confirm the need for a holistic set of decision factors. In support of the need for a holistic set of decision factors, this research presents a conceptual decision model that offers a systematic approach underpinned by 16 decision factors. The five-layer model is offered as a basis for future research to create an applied decision model for emerging technology opportunities. The results of this research bridge a gap in academic literature and defense acquisition practice with a systematic approach for making decisions about emerging technologies.