| The focus of this quantitative correlational, single design case study is on the effects of disasters on the economy and welfare return rate in Pinellas County, Florida. ARIMA and SARIMA modeling were utilized to make forecasts that associated 95% prediction intervals (PI) for unemployment rate, manufacturing and hospitality employment and welfare return rate data. The interventions for this study were September 11, 2001 (9/11) and the 2004 hurricane season. Analysis of the results suggested that, besides a short-term increase in unemployment through November 2002, 9/11 and the hurricane season of 2004, disasters had minimal to no effect on the welfare return rate and economy of Pinellas County, Florida. This information can assist in emergency management planning to maintain economic stability in the wake of disaster. |
