| The phenomenon of new stock listings continuing to the daily limit is relatively common in China.In the past,scholars used the first-day closing price of new stocks as the cost price of secondary market investors to study the performance of new stocks.It is inevitable that there are deviations,and most of the research samples are stocks listed before 2010.Few scholars have studied the GEM separately.Most studies have examined the performance of the new shares three years after listing,and it does not reflect the long-term situation of the GEM.This paper selects the new shares listed on the GEM from October 30,2009 to December 31,2017 as the research object,and takes the closing price of the daily limit after the IPO is listed as the purchase cost of the secondary market investors.Calculate the annualized absolute rate of return to different accounting years,and the annualized excess return rate of the holding period is calculated by using the CSI 500 Index and the CSI 300 Index as market indices.This paper researches the long-term rate of the secondary market of the GEM stocks,so as to explore the overall operating efficiency of the listed companies on the GEM.Discover the characteristics of the listed companies with investment value in long time,in order to provide reference services for the retail investors.The results show that the average annual absolute return rate is only-0.58%,the loss ratio is as high as 64.3%.It has weak performance.In the second and third years,the average annualized absolute return rate rapidly increased to over 9%.But from the perspective of income distribution,the proportion of losses in 2 years and 3 years are still as high as 54.7% and48.7%,showing a structural strong performance.The average annualized absolute rate of return and the proportion of profitable stocks in the 4th-5th year continued to climb,reaching peaks of42.24% and 89.4%.Respectively,the annualized excess return rate of the fifth year exceeded30%,showing strong performance.The average annualized absolute return rate of the 6th-9th year is positive,but it drops sharply,converted into a cumulative rate of return,and even as a loss,showing weakness.Investing in the new shares of the GEM can generally bring a good rate of return,and the average annualized rate of return of the new shares of the GEM in the 1st to9 th year clearly exceeds the index yield of the control,outperforming the market.Further empirical research on the factors affecting the long-term yield of the secondnary market of the GEM new stocks found that,the market is highly valued for new shares,makingthe PB of new shares open at a very high level.The implementation of the first-day daily limit system of new stock trading in June 2014 further led to the overvaluation of IPOs,which was the main reason for the high loss ratio in 1-3 years.If there is no excessive speculation in the GEM in 2015,the average yield of each year will be greatly reduced.The return on equity of new shares on the GEM has continued to decline since the listing,which is the main reason for the sharp decline in the yield in the 6th-9th year.The long-term growth of GEM listed companies is not as expected.Stocks with a time to market of more than 7 years have lower yields.In addition,stocks in the market more than 7 years have lower yields.The companies with smaller equity and belong to emerging industries have higher yields,and the reduction of large shareholders has not also led to lower yields in the secondary market.The quality of information disclosure has little effect on the rate of return.On the whole,the first year of the GEM new shares is not worth investing,there are structural opportunities in the 2-3 years,the investment opportunities in the 4-5 years are better,and the risks in the 6-9 years are far greater than the returns. |
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