Navy theater missile defense: Optimal estimation of theater ballistic missile parameters and prediction of missile trajectories using a Kalman filter

In theater missile defense (TMD), early recognition of enemy theater ballistic missile (TBM) firing is the most vital factor to ensure a high probability of successful missile defense. Satellite sensors usually work as the primary means for early confirmation of TBM firing in TMD because the sensors are able to cover the widest possible TBM launch area and they can visually confirm the TBM firing in the early stage of TBM flight. However, the development of decoy tactics associated with TBM's in flight can cause satellite sensors to go blind. As a result, sea-based TMD, so called navy theater missile defense (NTMD), can offer joint power projection with a vital, flexible, and increasingly robust TMD capability.; As ship's radar engages with the flying TBM, the NTMD success depends on the accuracy of measurement outputs. Unfortunately, a ship's radar is always noise corrupted and measurement outputs of the radar do not provide perfect and complete data. To provide more precise information for the NTMD, this dissertation develops models for optimal TBM parameter estimation and for the prediction of missile trajectories using a Kalman filter. This is perhaps the first formal research attempt in the field of TMD for achieving high NTMD success.; This research makes several unique contributions. First, a comprehensive analysis of radar measurement error is developed. Second, critical characteristics for determining an optimal estimator are identified. Third, rigorous mathematical models are developed for optimal TBM parameter estimation and for the prediction of missile trajectories. Finally, these proposed models are validated and verified through comprehensive simulation studies. The simulation studies strongly indicate that proposed models significantly reduce measurement noise and better predict missile trajectories.