Patterns and processes in forest insect population dynamics

This dissertation is concerned with effects dispersal and forest structure on forest insect population dynamics, and with identifying generating processes by comparing observed patterns to model predictions. In chapter 2, we investigated effects of changing forest landscape patterns on integro-difference models of host-parasitoid population dynamics. We demonstrated that removing habitat can increase herbivore density when herbivores don't disperse far, and parasitoids disperse further, due to differences in dispersal success between trophic levels. This is a novel potential explanation for why forest fragmentation increases the duration of forest tent caterpillar outbreaks. To better understand spatial model behaviour, we proposed a new local variation of the dispersal success approximation. The approximation successfully predicts effects of habitat loss and fragmentation on realistically complex landscapes, except when outbreak cycle amplitude is very large. Local dispersal success is useful in part because parameters can be estimated from widely available habitat data. In chapter 3, we investigated how well a discretized integro-difference model of mountain pine beetle population dynamics predicted the occurrence of new infestations in British Columbia. We found that a model with a large dispersal kernel, and high emigration from new, low severity infestations yielded the best predictions. However, we do not believe this to be convincing evidence that many beetles disperse from new, low severity infestations. Rather, we argued that differences in habitat quality, detection errors, and Moran effects can all confound dispersal patterns, making it difficult to infer dispersal parameters from observed infestation patterns. Nonetheless, predicting infestation risk is useful, and large kernels improve predictions. In chapter 4, we used generalized linear mixed models to characterize spatial and temporal variation in the propensity of jack pine trees to produce pollen cones, and account for confounding effects on the relationship between pollen cone production and previous defoliation by jack pine budworm. We found effects of stand age, and synchronous variation in pollen cone production among years. Accounting for background patterns in pollen cone production clarified that pollen cone production declines in with previous defoliation, as expected.